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Say what you will about Mickey, but they finished with 86 wins (some years would've been good enough for WC #2) and kept the team together after the awful first half. If BVW doesn't make that horrendous Diaz/Cano trade which was worse than I even thought it would be, they probably ARE the second Wildcard as they would've cracked 90 wins AND would've beaten the Nats in the Wildcard game with deGrom and would be playing the Dodgers right now. So, IMO, and hopefully Bob can put his input as a Mets fan, but the coupon-shopping Wilpon's are going to have to do something they don't want to do: pay money for an experienced manager. You cannot fire Calloway and than bring in someone with no experience like Joe Espada, Tim Bogar or Carlos Beltran.
BVW should've fired himself instead and went back to doing what he does best....negotiating player salaries as an agent!
I agree, 7express, but would express it another way. I cannot fault wanting Diaz-no one could see a tragic 2019 after his stellar 2018, but wonder were the analytics guys or BVW forcing MC to use him as the closer too long. IMO, by the ASG, he should have been replaced at closer by a duo of Lugo & Wilson. Wilpons should be pushing BVW to get another same style arm Lugo/Wilson) and form trio, push Diaz to mop up roles.
I do not see manager I want out there, as I disagree with Moneyball and analytics on mgr style. Mets have fairly significant amount guys with speed. Triples park at home.Years ago, when Willie Randolph managed, his motto was "We run til they stop us". I want 1-2 of Nimmo or McNeil (at 1), Rosario at 2, RUNNING, as I have MC 3rd getting lots of fastballs then, and I bat him 3rd whether a righty pitches, a leftie pitches, or a Martian pitches. Alonso 4th. McNeil 5th if Nimmo leads off. I want 3-4-5 seeing fastballs a ton. I want more guys running to 3rd on gap shots at Citi. Triples terrorize the opponent more than homers IMO.
Moneyball on stealing is, IMO, wrong. I value the get in the batterys' head it brings about.
Maddon is NOT the guy. Baker is NOT the guy. Who out there values stealing? Maybe McEwing?
Stealing not cause grabbing the base is so vital. Triples not cause grabbing bas is vital. Disrupting is vital. Getting pitcher out of sync mentally is vital.
I' actually tell Nats if I managed I do not want Turner to steal vs Mets as much, and fake jump more. Guys like NS were go spastic at that more than seeing him at 2nd.
Sports, all of them, are about drawing opponent out of comfort zone.
PS: Fake break will not rattle JD. That is why he is Mr. Cy Young. So cerebral, just looks like he plays catch Rattled-Never.
Ramos in my lineup bats 7th btw, as a walking DP no matter how strong is not 3-6.
Last edited by BobNJ1960; 10-04-2019 at 03:36 AM..
Moneyball on stealing is, IMO, wrong. I value the get in the batterys' head it brings about.
I shall not attempt to change your mind about metrics, but I do wish to correct the above. The term "Moneyball" has nothing to do with stealing bases. It is a specific reference to employing metric analysis to identify talent which the other clubs have overlooked, something that is damn difficult to do any longer because all the clubs are now using metrics for this purpose.
With regard to stealing bases, metrics do not say do it or don't do it, metrics simply provide the precise odds involved in the move. Metric analysis shows that in order for stealing bases to help more than it hurts a club, the success rate has to be higher than 66 %. Lower than that and the stolen base attempts are hurting your club's chances of scoring runs.
So, Moneyball isn't about stealing bases, and metric analysis isn't about right or wrong, it is simply a tool which clarifies that which was unknown or vaguely understood.
I shall not attempt to change your mind about metrics, but I do wish to correct the above. The term "Moneyball" has nothing to do with stealing bases..
Perhaps, but you can't really determine how rattled they may be nor how much their being rattled is going to help you, if at all. On the other hand you can make a precise determination of how much stolen bases have helped or hurt teams through the entire history of MLB.
Stolen bases help. In some situations. Some of the time. The rest of the time they are either inconsequential (as in when the runner would have scored without the stolen base, or the runner wound up stranded despite the stolen base,) or they are harmful, you make an out on the bases and your team is a third of the way closer to not scoring a run that inning. You have to weigh the risk of being caught against the reward of gaining a base. That has been calculated by numerous Sabermetricians and there is agreement that anything less than a 66 % success rate, damages a team's chances in run scoring. (Some argue that it should be 70%, none argue that it should be less than 66 %)
Other ways to evaluate stolen bases? What is the correlation between teams which lead the league in stolen bases and teams which win division titles? None has been discovered. What is the correlation between teams leading the league in stolen bases and teams leading the league in runs scored? None has been found.
Beane mocks stolen bases because he is aware that there is no relationship between stealing lots of bases and scoring runs, unless you steal an immense number and do so with a high success rate. They otherwise are largely inconsequential or harmful.
Perhaps, but you can't really determine how rattled they may be nor how much their being rattled is going to help you, if at all. On the other hand you can make a precise determination of how much stolen bases have helped or hurt teams through the entire history of MLB.
Stolen bases help. In some situations. Some of the time. The rest of the time they are either inconsequential (as in when the runner would have scored without the stolen base, or the runner wound up stranded despite the stolen base,) or they are harmful, you make an out on the bases and your team is a third of the way closer to not scoring a run that inning. You have to weigh the risk of being caught against the reward of gaining a base. That has been calculated by numerous Sabermetricians and there is agreement that anything less than a 66 % success rate, damages a team's chances in run scoring. (Some argue that it should be 70%, none argue that it should be less than 66 %)
Other ways to evaluate stolen bases? What is the correlation between teams which lead the league in stolen bases and teams which win division titles? None has been discovered. What is the correlation between teams leading the league in stolen bases and teams leading the league in runs scored? None has been found.
Beane mocks stolen bases because he is aware that there is no relationship between stealing lots of bases and scoring runs, unless you steal an immense number and do so with a high success rate. They otherwise are largely inconsequential or harmful.
I disagree.
I remember a game back in '74 where Larry Bowa of the Phillies got a bunt single, stole second and third and Greg Luzinski drove him in with a sacrifice fly. The Phillies won the game by one run.
Game 1, 1980 World Series, Phillies down to the Royals by four and Larry Bowa stole second, igniting a five-run explosion in a game the Phillies went on to win.
I remember a game back in '74 where Larry Bowa of the Phillies got a bunt single, stole second and third and Greg Luzinski drove him in with a sacrifice fly. The Phillies won the game by one run.
Game 1, 1980 World Series, Phillies down to the Royals by four and Larry Bowa stole second, igniting a five-run explosion in a game the Phillies went on to win.
The stolen base works.
Do you not grasp the difference between data and two anecdotes? Apparently not.
You do not know what you are talking about. You do not understand what I am talking about. You do not appear interested in learning something.
Do you not grasp the difference between data and two anecdotes? Apparently not.
You do not know what you are talking about. You do not understand what I am talking about. You do not appear interested in learning something.
Maybe you should listen to other people once in a while, we can teach you something, but you're too intent on trying to prove everybody wrong all the time.
You're the obtuse one around here.
I remember a game back in '74 where Larry Bowa of the Phillies got a bunt single, stole second and third and Greg Luzinski drove him in with a sacrifice fly. The Phillies won the game by one run.
Game 1, 1980 World Series, Phillies down to the Royals by four and Larry Bowa stole second, igniting a five-run explosion in a game the Phillies went on to win.
The stolen base works.
I agree, as stolen bases get many a pitcher off their game plan. That IMO is the biggest value of a stolen base.
I agree, as stolen bases get many a pitcher off their game plan. That IMO is the biggest value of a stolen base.
I like watching the old films of Jackie Robinson getting the pitchers all worried ... though he'd be out on that steal of home in the World Series if they had instant replay.
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