But, but... what happened to the people leaving "in droves?" (San Diego: apartment, lease)

[Fontucky]

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021...ppen-uc-study/

[Tulemutt]

It’s a shame, isn’t it? I had high hopes that 10 or 20 million would leave ...

[1200RT]

Originally Posted by tulemutt

it’s a shame, isn’t it? I had high hopes that 10 or 20 million would leave ...

lol.

[simbared]

Texans and Arizonians will still claim their States are being overrun with massive numbers of Californians.

[CCbaxter]

"Net exits from San Francisco between the end of last March and the end of 2020 increased 649% as compared to the same period in 2019. About two-thirds remained within the 11-county Bay Area economic region, and 80% stayed in California."

So can I look forward to a nice 2 bedroom with a bay view for $1500 a month!?

I'm so excited!!!

[92greenyj]

I’m sure the numbers fleeing this sinking ship will pick up around June when the school year ends. That is when we are bailing out of here. Waiting for my daughter to finish her school year. We are already under contract on our new home and our preparing to put our California house on the market by the beginning of May.

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by simbared

Texans and Arizonians will still claim their States are being overrun with massive numbers of Californians.

Right. It's self-validation.

"See, I made the right choice to move to Mesa! ...Everyone else from California is following me here!"

[1200RT]

just to keep this an interesting discussion, and since i (personally) find this somewhat suspect data

here is their methodology.

In a previous life, I spent a large amount of time studying credit files. I'll spare you the 'why', aside from the addresses on the files were of utmost interest. Whats interesting about this is that they're using addresses at their criteria for in/out of CA. A credit file will likely not have a new address reported to it unless another credit pull aside from a mortgage. For example, if someone 'leaves' ca and has their credit pulled as a result, they would use their current address for the credit check - mortgage or apartment, since they don't currently reside wherever they're applying. Maybe I'm missing something here?

Interesting discssion nevertheless.

What is the most detailed geography for which you have data?

Each consumer record1 has a 5-digit ZIP. After June 2010, the UC-CCP has census geography information for ~80% of records, down to the Census Block-level.

Can you describe the sampling methodology in greater detail?

There are two samples, one nationwide and one from California.

The National Sample: For each archive, we first select all records with a “consumer pin” ending in one of two two-digit numbers (e.g., 24 or 56). The consumer pin is assigned sequentially by the credit bureau and we have conducted testing to ensure that the pins are as good as random, thereby creating a representative nationwide sample.

The California Sample: We first selected all consumers that had a California address during one of the sixty quarterly archives between March 2004 and December 2019. We have data for those consumers from all archives, even from archives in which they are not located in California. The resulting sample includes “always” residents of California, but also “comers” to California during the 2004-19 period, and “leavers” from California from 2004 to present, and into the future.

Household Members and Associated Borrowers: For both the National and California Samples, we also have data for consumers who share the same address (max of 8 co-habitants) during that archive (Household Members). And we also have data for consumers who are on the same tradelines, such as co-signers (Associated Borrowers). These Household Members and Associated Borrowers are distinguished within the data, and we only have data for them during the archives in which they are associated with the Sample members.

[Fontucky]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

It’s a shame, isn’t it? I had high hopes that 10 or 20 million would leave ...

I was just itching for another chance to parody "in droves."

[malcorub16]

Our housing inventory is at all time lows in San Diego.......the mass exodus is a farce at lease for our part of the State. The number of houses on the market here is so low and houses generally stay on the market for about a month. If anything, we had many folks move from Silicon Valley to San Diego in 2020.

“At the county level, however, San Francisco is experiencing a unique and dramatic exodus, which is causing 50% or 100% increases in Bay Area in-migration for some counties in the Sierras,” Holmes said.

Why would anyone stay in the city of San Francisco in 2020 if you were going to be trapped in a little apartment with nowhere to go.