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nationwide, black people prefer the suburbs. I predict we will continue to move to suburbs and our city proper percentages will continue to decline.
for DC, DC's population will probably dip to 25-30% and hold firm around there and more black people will move to the suburbs (PG is majority black, Charles County is plurality black, Howard County, Anne Arundel and Montgomery Counties have growing black populations as well).
DC area will probably resemble Atlanta where they are many majority/plurality black suburban counties.
Please see below. I posted this back on page 166 of this thread. Contrary to popular belief, DC is adding black people, not losing them. The percentage of black people in DC proper is dropping because DC is adding so many people. DC is booming with cranes all over the city so people from all ethnic backgrounds are moving into the city. DC isn’t losing people from any race. The city added 100,000 people in 61 sq. miles over the course of 8-years. DC is headed for a population of 1 million people so the percentages will be very different. In NYC, black people aren’t close to a majority, but there are millions of black people living in NYC proper alone.
2010-2017 DC Population (White vs. Black) Difference
Black Alone = +19,446 people
White Alone = +66,092 people
People seem to always come up with opinions when facts are readily available. DC is not losing black people. DC is gaining black people. DC is just gaining more white people per month than black people. We can sum this up with one phase....DC IS BOOMING!
If I build 100 buildings on empty lots and fill them with new residents, the population is going to grow. I don't understand why this concept is lost on everyone from the media to the guy on the street.
its unfortunate that many middle/upper class blacks are going to suburbs at the expense of black urban neighborhoods but cost, crime, and QOL are the most important thing for homebuyers.
My sister was looking to buy in DC, but for her budget, she could not afford anywhere safe in the District; she's now looking a few miles away in Maryland and suddenly there's a plethora of homes available in her range, with amenities by. Going back to my first point about QOL, Wards 7 and 8 in DC have three supermarkets between them, with only one of them in Ward 8 ( although I believe a supermarket is opening up in Ward 8 later this year). It just makes sense for the majority of black homebuyers to look into suburbs in many cases.
I’m glad you brought this up. Your statements here really sums up why many black people left DC and moved to the suburbs beginning in the 1980-2000, and are now mad they can’t afford to come back. I’m not talking about your sister who obviously didn’t own a home, but the other individuals that chose to sell because of a lack of amenities and high crime.
When a socioeconomically distressed neighborhood begins to see new construction or renovation of single family homes, that is the first step in neighborhood revitalization. After those new single family homes or renovations reach a certain price point, the next step in neighborhood revitalization is the construction of new condos or renovated condos. Usually at this point, the neighborhood will also see the construction of new market rate rental multi-family buildings because the critical mass of middle class home owners have now stabilized the submarket. Once this happens, new retail begins to come.
The neighborhoods in Columbia Heights, Shaw, Logan Circle, Navy Yard, NOMA, Mt. Vernon Triangle, H Street, SW Waterfront, and Adams Morgan etc. etc. all used to be food deserts. They only had a few grocery stores just like Ward 7 and Ward 8. Then, gentrification began and now they have grocery stores within walking distance regardless of where you live. Please see below:
DC is a very different place in 2020 as you can see by these grocery store stats. Most of these wards had 1-2 grocery stores 20 years ago. Ward 6 only had about 3 grocery stores in 2010 and now has the most in the city. Our white counterparts understand how the economics of development work and move into neighborhoods when they lack amenities and have high crime knowing they will change. We (black people) seem to not understand this concept in general so we leave because of the crime and lack of amenities moving out to the suburbs, but then we get mad because we are shutout of the substantial home equity in the city when the neighborhoods change and get upset because we can’t afford to return.
Ward 7 and Ward 8 have finally reached the same point the other neighborhoods in other Wards did back in 2010. There are 9 shovel ready grocery store sites that will be moving forward in Ward 7 and Ward 8. The city subsidized grocery stores over the last 20 years which brought on the revitalization across the city. That is now about to happen in Ward 7 and Ward 8.
there are way more amenities available in PG county than those neighborhoods.
This uninformed belief is going to shut black people out of the last affordable wards left in DC. It’s way more complicated than just saying there are no amenities in this neighborhood. It takes vision an knowledge of what’s to come. Please see below:
Ward 7
Intersection of Benning Road and Minnesota Avenue:
I always thought it was a bit of a shame that with all of the Black wealth and Black celebrity wealth in particular in Atlanta that a group of folks didn't get together 15-20 years ago to invest in and preserve Sweet Auburn, or at least around the time the construction of the streetcar was announced. I know Big Bethel AME Church has a big development planned/under construction but other than that, if such an effort was attempted, I don't know about it.
All across the country, the old Black urban commercial districts suffered in the late 60s and 70s due to urban riots, urban renewal, or the disinvestment that followed the migration to the suburbs (discounting the ones that were lost to acts of domestic terrorism earlier in the century like Greenwood). Many of the ones that were still standing in some way, shape, or form until the turn of the century have since seen some type of investment, if not outright gentrification.
I agree but like many issues in the black community it’s a lack of education
84% of the entire Black community lives in metropolitan areas. Which about 51% lives inside the core & the rest in the burbs.
The rest in micropolitan areas & rural communities.
By 2030 it's definitely going to be majority for the metro blacks , then again i might need to reverse those percantages already. Micropolitan blacks should be around 11% by then or so.
According to 2018 survey estimates, Chicago and New York are at or little above the national average, with Chicago being the closest at 51.6%(round up to 52%) and New York is sitting at 57% living in the city limits. Black people in both metros make up 16% of the general population.
Atlanta(and much of the southeast for that matter) is far ahead of the trend with only 13% living in the city limits. This is to be expected, given the city's much smaller population in relations to its metro.
Please see below. I posted this back on page 166 of this thread. Contrary to popular belief, DC is adding black people, not losing them. The percentage of black people in DC proper is dropping because DC is adding so many people. DC is booming with cranes all over the city so people from all ethnic backgrounds are moving into the city. DC isn’t losing people from any race. The city added 100,000 people in 61 sq. miles over the course of 8-years. DC is headed for a population of 1 million people so the percentages will be very different. In NYC, black people aren’t close to a majority, but there are millions of black people living in NYC proper alone.
Yes, I remember seeing your post and its true yet what I said is the DC black percentage is dropping, and I predict the percentage will continue to drop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar
This uninformed belief is going to shut black people out of the last affordable wards left in DC. It’s way more complicated than just saying there are no amenities in this neighborhood. It takes vision an knowledge of what’s to come. Please see below:
Ward 7
Intersection of Benning Road and Minnesota Avenue:
I’m glad you brought this up. Your statements here really sums up why many black people left DC and moved to the suburbs beginning in the 1980-2000, and are now mad they can’t afford to come back. I’m not talking about your sister who obviously didn’t own a home, but the other individuals that chose to sell because of a lack of amenities and high crime.
When a socioeconomically distressed neighborhood begins to see new construction or renovation of single family homes, that is the first step in neighborhood revitalization. After those new single family homes or renovations reach a certain price point, the next step in neighborhood revitalization is the construction of new condos or renovated condos. Usually at this point, the neighborhood will also see the construction of new market rate rental multi-family buildings because the critical mass of middle class home owners have now stabilized the submarket. Once this happens, new retail begins to come.
The neighborhoods in Columbia Heights, Shaw, Logan Circle, Navy Yard, NOMA, Mt. Vernon Triangle, H Street, SW Waterfront, and Adams Morgan etc. etc. all used to be food deserts. They only had a few grocery stores just like Ward 7 and Ward 8. Then, gentrification began and now they have grocery stores within walking distance regardless of where you live. Please see below:
DC is a very different place in 2020 as you can see by these grocery store stats. Most of these wards had 1-2 grocery stores 20 years ago. Ward 6 only had about 3 grocery stores in 2010 and now has the most in the city. Our white counterparts understand how the economics of development work and move into neighborhoods when they lack amenities and have high crime knowing they will change. We (black people) seem to not understand this concept in general so we leave because of the crime and lack of amenities moving out to the suburbs, but then we get mad because we are shutout of the substantial home equity in the city when the neighborhoods change and get upset because we can’t afford to return.
Ward 7 and Ward 8 have finally reached the same point the other neighborhoods in other Wards did back in 2010. There are 9 shovel ready grocery store sites that will be moving forward in Ward 7 and Ward 8. The city subsidized grocery stores over the last 20 years which brought on the revitalization across the city. That is now about to happen in Ward 7 and Ward 8.
While most of your post is correct and I agree with it, I want to address the bolded. You're making an assumption that if black people move into "up and coming" neighborhoods, that investment will follow like it does when white people move into certain neighborhoods. There isn't research to support this. In fact, there is research that shows once a neighborhood has a certain amount of black or minority residents, its property value stagnates and white flight occurs.
and for those already in the neighborhoods that are going to be invested in, many cannot afford to wait until it gets improved (for many reasons, including rises in property taxes, rise in COL, crime, schools, etc.).
While most of your post is correct and I agree with it, I want to address the bolded. You're making an assumption that if black people move into "up and coming" neighborhoods, that investment will follow like it does when white people move into certain neighborhoods. There isn't research to support this. In fact, there is research that shows once a neighborhood has a certain amount of black or minority residents, its property value stagnates and white flight occurs.
and for those already in the neighborhoods that are going to be invested in, many cannot afford to wait until it gets improved (for many reasons, including rises in property taxes, rise in COL, crime, schools, etc.).
Incorrect, I’m saying middle class black people should also move into up and coming neighborhoods like our white counterparts. The suburbs will be hit hard during the next recession, and the city will keep humming like it did in 2008. Prince George’s county still hasn’t caught up to where it was back in 2007. Some people are still underwater on their mortgages and yet, DC is at record highs and didn’t really drop during the last recession. Demand will always exist in the city and America is finally catching up with the rest of the world whose city centers have always been the most expensive part of their regions.
America, being a new young country, experimented with suburbanization thinking it was the future. Now the country realizes sprawl isn’t sustainable and everyone with money is headed back into the city. We need to be a part of that instead of being late to the game.
Yes, I remember seeing your post and its true yet what I said is the DC black percentage is dropping, and I predict the percentage will continue to drop.
Lol do you really want to compare amenities in Prince George's County to amenities in Ward 7 and 8? I don't think you really want to do that.
You missed the whole point. This post had nothing to do with Prince George’s County or any suburb for that matter. I was saying that every single neighborhood in DC that is now a hot neighborhood like Shaw, NOMA, Mt. Vernon Triangle, H Street, U street, SW Waterfront, Navy Yard used to be a crime ridden hot mess with no amenities just like Ward 7 and Ward 8. And now look at them! And all the black people that moved out because of crime and a lack of amenities for a windfall when the redevelopment started are kicking themselves.
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