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Since the year is incomplete, I think it would be more helpful to give the on-pace numbers and the corresponding murder rate for a whole year. That will give a good point of reference to compare to past murder rates.
Ending yesterday was day 122 (roughly 1/3 of the year), and I will use the 2011 population estimates for cities, if anyone wants to check my math.
Found this interesting in an article about an Illinois Senator (Mark Kirk) who basically wants to make it his goal to arrest as many members of this one gang as possible. I ran across this fact linked to another article which was very interesting..
This is from last year, 2012, and not this year. Very interesting though.
Quote:
As Chicago struggles with its highest homicide rate in years, the role of a single street gang stands out: more than a quarter of the city's nearly 400 slaying victims through Sept. 25 were affiliated with the Gangster Disciples, according to Chicago police statistics obtained by the Tribune.
Long the city's largest gang, the Gangster Disciples have dominated significant swaths of the South Side for decades. But now authorities say the gang is eating itself from within, riven by feuding factions with names like the Killa Ward and The Hit Squad that engage in bloody conflicts over turf they once shared.
Through tthis time for other years:
2012: 175 homicides
2011: 109
2010: 135
So, between last year and now, it's a 40.6% decrease. Between 2011 and now, it's a 3.7% decrease. Between 2010 and now it's a 23% decrease.
Interesting as well how January was really high, and then all the sudden Feb 1st it just quieted down and hasn't gotten wild yet. We're 1/3 the way through May with 70's and some 80's and are at 8 homicides. Last year the month had over 50.
Month: This Year - Last Year
Jan: 43 - 40
Feb: 14 - 29
Mar: 15 - 51
Apr: 24 - 41
May: 8* - 13*
*through May 9th
Strange how Indianapolis is up so much this year. It's had 49 murders now, and has had basically the same amount of murders in May as Chicago has had this year. Indy is up 53% from last year, and is on pace if that holds to have a rate of 21/100,000, which would put it towards the top.
Since the year is incomplete, I think it would be more helpful to give the on-pace numbers and the corresponding murder rate for a whole year. That will give a good point of reference to compare to past murder rates.
Ending yesterday was day 122 (roughly 1/3 of the year), and I will use the 2011 population estimates for cities, if anyone wants to check my math.
Except murder rates fluctuate during the year (at least in cold-weather cities like Chicago). They rise in the warm months and drop in the colder months. Chicago will almost inevitably have a spike of murder during the next couple months of summer, with some drop-off in the fall. If Chicago ends the year with under 450, it will be basically on the same multi-year trend of slowly declining murders tallies.
Strange how Indianapolis is up so much this year. It's had 49 murders now, and has had basically the same amount of murders in May as Chicago has had this year. Indy is up 53% from last year, and is on pace if that holds to have a rate of 21/100,000, which would put it towards the top.
If BRG were still around, he'd probably blame all the increase in homicides on Chicagoans who've moved to Indianapolis to take advantage of the lower taxes.
I think some of the "warm weather"/"Cold weather" correlations are a little bit off. If you look at who is actually being killed, I believe the largest demographic is 14-17 year olds. School gives these kids something to do for 8 hours a day, but when school lets out for the summer and it's not out..is when the homicides increase.
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