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Old 03-28-2011, 08:22 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,406 posts, read 14,480,571 times
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::APRIL 2, 2011 STORM UPDATE::

Not totally confident yet so here's your 3 Options... We're 5 days away now!

This is not made up, this is what the models are showing. You can see the date imprinted on the graph. Each graph relates to the Option.

1. Major Storm with a foot of snow or more with high winds and blowing snow.



2. No storm....Goes out to sea.



3. Major Giant Rain storm same size as Dec.26th storm. Dangerous winds, downpours, and severe flooding.

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Old 03-28-2011, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Central Connecticut
577 posts, read 593,965 times
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^ wonder what mother nature trying to do to us lol
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Old 03-28-2011, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,642 posts, read 8,401,189 times
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Interesting article basically talking about the things Cambium did in his most recent post as well as an explanation of models and how they tend to diverge:

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | An April Fool's Snowstorm or Just a Joke? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/47597/an-april-fools-snowstorm-or-ju.asp - broken link)
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Old 03-29-2011, 05:55 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,406 posts, read 14,480,571 times
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:::APRIL 2, 2011 NOR'EASTER UPDATE:::

Last few model runs have shown a stall and a powerful NorEaster again .... in form of snow.

Here ya go. Blue dashed line is the 32 degree surface temp. Shades of blue and green are the precip and looking at the ledgen CT is in the blues..THIS IS JUST FOR 6HR PERIOD! Power outages, whiteout conditions.

Widespread 10-15" falls throughout CT. Boston gets 18-22" as the storm stalls.


Last edited by Cambium; 03-29-2011 at 06:13 AM..
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Old 03-29-2011, 06:42 AM
 
Location: W. Hartford, CT
1,045 posts, read 1,035,049 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
:::APRIL 2, 2011 NOR'EASTER UPDATE:::

Last few model runs have shown a stall and a powerful NorEaster again .... in form of snow.

Here ya go. Blue dashed line is the 32 degree surface temp. Shades of blue and green are the precip and looking at the ledgen CT is in the blues..THIS IS JUST FOR 6HR PERIOD! Power outages, whiteout conditions.

Widespread 10-15" falls throughout CT. Boston gets 18-22" as the storm stalls.
Is this an outlier, or are the models converging on this? The NWS (Taunton) still says it will rise into the 40s on Friday, which would make any snow a short-lived novelty (again)...
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Old 03-29-2011, 07:14 AM
 
5,351 posts, read 4,018,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
:::APRIL 2, 2011 NOR'EASTER UPDATE:::

Last few model runs have shown a stall and a powerful NorEaster again .... in form of snow.

Here ya go. Blue dashed line is the 32 degree surface temp. Shades of blue and green are the precip and looking at the ledgen CT is in the blues..THIS IS JUST FOR 6HR PERIOD! Power outages, whiteout conditions.

Widespread 10-15" falls throughout CT. Boston gets 18-22" as the storm stalls.


Really? Nobody is on this then....I don't buy it.

Edit: I DO see a very powerful storm POTENTIAL but no way is it an all snow event for anything south of 84....what model is this? What are you looking at?

Me thinks you are trying to stir the old pot one last time before the old lady dumps the soup down the drain

Last edited by jp03; 03-29-2011 at 07:24 AM..
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:08 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,406 posts, read 14,480,571 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
Is this an outlier, or are the models converging on this? The NWS (Taunton) still says it will rise into the 40s on Friday, which would make any snow a short-lived novelty (again)...
Locals and forecasts you see are based on previous days models. They also will play conservative because its better to say nothing and be wrong. Yes, more than one model is agreeing with this solution.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Edit: I DO see a very powerful storm POTENTIAL but no way is it an all snow event for anything south of 84....what model is this? What are you looking at?
Euro....and then GFS showed it 2 hours ago as well. ANYTHING CAN CHANGE NOW TILL THEN!

Just remember one thing.... If the surface temps are above 32(even38), it takes 15-30minutes of snow to get the surface temps to 32.
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:21 AM
 
5,351 posts, read 4,018,676 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Locals and forecasts you see are based on previous days models. They also will play conservative because its better to say nothing and be wrong. Yes, more than one model is agreeing with this solution.



Euro....and then GFS showed it 2 hours ago as well. ANYTHING CAN CHANGE NOW TILL THEN!

Just remember one thing.... If the surface temps are above 32(even38), it takes 15-30minutes of snow to get the surface temps to 32.

ok...thats cool...see how it pans out.
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Old 03-29-2011, 08:30 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,406 posts, read 14,480,571 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
ok...thats cool...see how it pans out.
Keep in mind... as usual...a shift of 50 miles can mean a HUGE difference and that can happen hours before. Somebody is going to get a snowstorm. Period. Whether its just Northern CT. All of CT. MA, NY... This storm means business. The winds should be wicked if this holds true.
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Old 03-29-2011, 09:27 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,406 posts, read 14,480,571 times
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From NWS..Precip through April 3rd.. CT is in the light blues. .75-1.00.
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