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Thanks for posting this. I know the anti-vaxxers are posting conspiracy theories everywhere, but the truth is the truth. There is nothing to be gained by trying to fight lies with lies.
The truth is that there will be some very difficult decisions to be made about vaccination if a vaccine is created. At-risk people will certainly be safer with the vaccine. Children will probably not. Adults will be a question of age and commodities.
Where does that leave the population of those who cannot be vaccinated?
This is why the experts are warning that COVID-19 will probably be with us for a very long time. The initial vaccines will be dangerous or carry unknown risks, preventing us from eradicating it as was done with smallpox. A population reaching "Natural Herd Immunity" will probably lose some of that protection as time goes on, and the virus will certainly remain a background threat in such a case.
Hopefully we will create a vaccine that is safe enough to give to almost everyone and effective enough to completely eradicate the virus from vaccinated populations. That will probably take years, if not decades.
The only "good" news is that the pandemic stage of COVID-19 will, pretty clearly, be short-lived.
Where is your evidence that "The initial vaccines will be dangerous"? If the research on a particular vaccine indicates that the risks exceed the benefits then the vaccine will not be approved.
As far as children are concerned, we know they are lower risk but not no risk.
Like I said previously, there needs to be a high enough rate of infection to validate any given study/ phase 2 or 3 trial. That's the part that makes this take "years" sometimes. With declining cases it could be difficult. Remember it takes 2 to 4 weeks to generate the response so you can't airship a trial of vaccines to the latest hotspot. Our best hope is the 2nd wave comes in the fall and infects enough people to give us all the data we need on the best candidates (and that they have already been used in enough people). That will prevent us from waiting years to see if such and such works.
Or they are going to have to use 10 to 15k people for each vaccine candidate. Or they can do challenge trials but good luck getting anyone in the western world to greenlight that.
Where is your evidence that "The initial vaccines will be dangerous"? If the research on a particular vaccine indicates that the risks exceed the benefits then the vaccine will not be approved.
As far as children are concerned, we know they are lower risk but not no risk.
My evidence is historical; I challenge you to find a single drug or vaccine with no side-effects.
However, I stand corrected. I should have said: "The initial vaccines will be dangerous if they are not vetted over 4-5 years in studies involving tens of thousands of volunteers, and limited trials on populations of all different ages."
Sure, a fully-vetted vaccine given to several million people with complete peer-reviewed studies of side-effects from double-blind studies with over ten-thousand volunteers whose health outcomes are followed for a period of five or more years, will be perfectly safe, and I will give be happy to give it to my children in 2026.
Meanwhile the IFR for COVID-19 in the under-17 group is lower than that of the 2018 influenza (but much higher for all other groups). While I vaccinate my children, yearly, against influenza's 0.001% CFR I will not vaccinate them against COVID-19's 0.000?% IFR until I am satisfied that the vaccine is completely vetted. I will consider vaccinating myself based on a risk analysis from what limited studies have been done and the fact that COVID-19 is at least 30X more dangerous for people my age than the 2018 influenza.
Unfortunately, even with a fast vaccine, this virus will remain a background threat for several years.
With luck, we can completely eradicate this dangerous virus within the decade. However, we should not endanger children's lives as part of a knee-jerk reaction in the first year of this pandemic.
Like I said previously, there needs to be a high enough rate of infection to validate any given study/ phase 2 or 3 trial. That's the part that makes this take "years" sometimes. With declining cases it could be difficult. Remember it takes 2 to 4 weeks to generate the response so you can't airship a trial of vaccines to the latest hotspot. Our best hope is the 2nd wave comes in the fall and infects enough people to give us all the data we need on the best candidates (and that they have already been used in enough people). That will prevent us from waiting years to see if such and such works.
Or they are going to have to use 10 to 15k people for each vaccine candidate. Or they can do challenge trials but good luck getting anyone in the western world to greenlight that.
Do you work for AmGen?
I had to look up "Challenge Trials."
I wouldn't say our "best hope" is for a second wave to infect enough people to test a vaccine. Our best hope is that some natural function inerts or reduces the severity of the virus sufficiently that a vaccine is no longer necessary. I know that's a fantasy, but we can hope. I mean, look at what happened with SARS, right?
Any thoughts on why new cases and deaths seem to be on a downward trajectory, even in countries that have reduced social restrictions? Summertime forcing? Voluntary behavioral modification? Lower-than-calculated R0? New strain of virus? Fishing for hope here, before the June wave crushes it.
My evidence is historical; I challenge you to find a single drug or vaccine with no side-effects.
However, I stand corrected. I should have said: "The initial vaccines will be dangerous if they are not vetted over 4-5 years in studies involving tens of thousands of volunteers, and limited trials on populations of all different ages."
Sure, a fully-vetted vaccine given to several million people with complete peer-reviewed studies of side-effects from double-blind studies with over ten-thousand volunteers whose health outcomes are followed for a period of five or more years, will be perfectly safe, and I will give be happy to give it to my children in 2026.
Meanwhile the IFR for COVID-19 in the under-17 group is lower than that of the 2018 influenza (but much higher for all other groups). While I vaccinate my children, yearly, against influenza's 0.001% CFR I will not vaccinate them against COVID-19's 0.000?% IFR until I am satisfied that the vaccine is completely vetted. I will consider vaccinating myself based on a risk analysis from what limited studies have been done and the fact that COVID-19 is at least 30X more dangerous for people my age than the 2018 influenza.
Unfortunately, even with a fast vaccine, this virus will remain a background threat for several years.
With luck, we can completely eradicate this dangerous virus within the decade. However, we should not endanger children's lives as part of a knee-jerk reaction in the first year of this pandemic.
I never claimed that there are no side effects from drugs or vaccines.
What I challenged is that any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must necessarily be dangerous.
Not much data there. A potential double whammy though. Survive a severe case of covid only to face something like a twelve fold increased risk of developing dementia. Double Apoe4 is bad news
It may be an answer to a bit of the risk puzzle, but I see no way to mitigate it.
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That is not MY timeline.
