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New information about the possible origin of the virus. China’s CDC has found that the Wuhan market was likely the site of a super spreader event, rather than the origin of the disease.
They may have found patient zero.
A lab escape of the virus seems to have been ruled out.
Well they could still continue to test the vaccines efficacy by doing a vaccine challenge trial. That would speed things up too but this basically requires that you deliberately infect people with COVID.
It could accelerate vaccine development by as much as a year but I'm not thinking they would have as many volunteers if that were the case.
They already have people volunteering for viral challenge studies.
How many coronaviruses prior to sars CoV-2 have posed any
threat to humanity, or stuck around long enough for a vaccine to be
needed/developed?
I believe the answer is zero.
Threat to humanity is an ill defined term. Sars-Cov (i.e. SARS), MERS-Cov corona viruses pose have posed significant threats. The CFRs of both have been much higher but that has led to their not spreading as much.
A lab escape of the virus seems to have been ruled out.
We're suddenly to believe anything coming out of china ?
Quote:
The Chinese CDC said its tests didn't show a link between animals sold at the market and the virus, suggesting that they couldn't have infected shoppers.
Many of us have been saying this all along, meanwhile the intermediary animal remains evasive.
Threat to humanity is an ill defined term. Sars-Cov (i.e. SARS), MERS-Cov corona viruses pose have posed significant threats. The CFRs of both have been much higher but that has led to their not spreading as much.
Not so much the CFR for those two as transmission dynamics.
SARS underwent large genetic deletion that reduced transmission and made it easier to contain. Ongoing community spread of MERS does not appear to happen.
Well they could still continue to test the vaccines efficacy by doing a vaccine challenge trial. That would speed things up too but this basically requires that you deliberately infect people with COVID.
It could accelerate vaccine development by as much as a year but I'm not thinking they would have as many volunteers if that were the case.
Challenging may occur but not until a phase 3 trial. It doesn't make sense to do them sooner unless we were in a more desperate situation. My point is that challenging a phase 3 may not be necessary if we have spread occurring at rates similar to now. I have my doubts this is coming back as bad as it hit the first wave, but if it does it may be in places that didn't get it as badly the first time.
The timing of all of this is very important. We need to get as many phase 1 and 2's done by September so we can get the 100k people across the world into phase 3 by then. I'm doing very rough math here, but I'm hoping for 10k people for each of the top 10 candidates that could be ready by then. Then if the wave hits in November as predicted, we will quickly have data if any of these work well enough.
Probably a dumb question... can someone defeat the virus by means of their innate immune response ?
If yes, would they then have measurable antibodies ?
My understanding is that antibodies are made once the virus gets past the innate immune system, and the adaptive immune system defeats it.
New information about the possible origin of the virus. China’s CDC has found that the Wuhan market was likely the site of a super spreader event, rather than the origin of the disease.
They may have found patient zero.
A lab escape of the virus seems to have been ruled out.
We've known about the November case for quite a while now.
We've known about the November case for quite a while now.
But I had not heard that they might have identified patient zero, who is a 55 year old male. I wonder if he lived or died?
A recent Business Insider article seemed to indicate that the virus likely escaped from the lab. Now they are printing a different article that says the wet market was the victim of a super spreader event.
I find this progression interesting.
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