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Of course, that is an average and more recent polls show much larger leads. But 1.5% is, in fact, way outside statistically. I would guess that it is within the 99% confidence band for Obama. Translation: It would be a near miracle if Romney wins Ohio based on current polling. Given they are already voting there and Obama's strongest GOTV is in Ohio, things look bleak indeed for the challenger. In addition to Ohio, Obama needs but one other toss up. He has a lock on Nevada per current polling as well. No spin, just the cold reality of inferential statistics. Oh well.
There are several which showed Kerry leading Bush outside the ME as late as two weeks before the Election. Bush won.
The election is far from over even in Ohio.
Good link. Based on a once over of those polls my call would have been a true toss-up. The polls this time look nothing like those polls. Obama has a large and significant lead. Ohio may still be a toss up, it it will take a real game-changer to shift it to Romney.
Two weeks before the 2010 Senate special election in MA, Coakley was up 17 points on Brown. Then the bottom fell out and Brown ended up winning by 5 points, especially after one of the pivotal debates when Brown retorted about Kennedy's seat 'This is the people's seat'.
In 2010, Buck was trending up fast toward the end of October against Bennett in the CO Senate race and was leading by ~5 points. The polls predicted a Buck win. Instead, Bennett squeaked out the win.
Two weeks before the 2010 Senate special election in MA, Coakley was up 17 points on Brown. Then the bottom fell out and Brown ended up winning by 5 points, especially after one of the pivotal debates when Brown retorted about Kennedy's seat 'This is the people's seat'.
It's not over until the last vote is counted.
Yes, I agree that Mr Brown's 'This is the people's seat' statement worked very well for him, but maybe not this time.
We the people of MA will be reminding him that it is indeed the people's seat.......
Obama's odds on Intrade have slipped a bunch, although to a still very-high level of 70% chance of winning. But what caused the slide from 79% on Oct 1, and nearly 75 on Oct 2, to 70.1% today? Any ideas?
Obama's odds on Intrade have slipped a bunch, although to a still very-high level of 70% chance of winning. But what caused the slide from 79% on Oct 1, and nearly 75 on Oct 2, to 70.1% today? Any ideas?
Hedging the debates. The media makes it sound like Romney can turn the whole thing around with a stellar performance.
Obama's odds on Intrade have slipped a bunch, although to a still very-high level of 70% chance of winning. But what caused the slide from 79% on Oct 1, and nearly 75 on Oct 2, to 70.1% today? Any ideas?
Biden's big mouth?
Ken
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Why is this happening today?
