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I can answer the question in part ... sorry if I am not coming up with the whole picture.
I can see Hillary sweeping the entire Northeast ... New England and the Mid-Atlantic states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and DC.
This is my region and I follow the political trends here more closely than the other regions. Of course it's likely she will carry Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, California, Oregon and Washington ... but I am not as certain about a couple of those states.
Republicans may protest "New Hampshire is ours!" but when it comes to presidential choice I think that's not true.
This is just my opinion. My name is not Nate Silver, nor do I own a crystal ball.
I knew you'd chicken out of answering somehow. Typical.
Not only will Trump fare worse with minorities, I don't even see him getting the same share of the White vote as Romney.
Non-Hispanic White Vote
Florida: 67% of the total vote, 61% voted for Romney
Ohio: 79% of the vote, 57% for Romney
Virginia: 70% of the vote, 61% for Romney
Keep in mind these are states Romney LOST.
And the non-White vote is getting larger AND intensifying in its support AGAINST the Republican Party.
Trump is betting big that the White bigot vote can counteract the White non-bigot + minority vote. I guess we'll see how that plays out.
1) Carry the states every Democratic nominee has carried for the last six elections - CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI + DC
That's 242
2) Carry Virginia, which has trended solidly to the left over the past decade, with Obama carrying it twice, with the growth in the state focused on Democratic areas (NoVA) and demographics (Hispanics), with the state breaking a decades-long trend in 2013 of electing Governors who are members of the party that doesn't control the White House by electing unabashed liberal Terry McAuliffe (who, as a long-time Clinton insider, will be invaluable in assuring the state remains blue).
That's 255
3) Carry New Mexico and Nevada, two heavily-Hispanic states that Obama has carried easily twice.
That's 266
4) Carry any one of the following:
*IA or NH, both of which have voted Democratic in 5 of the past 6 Presidential elections, and both of which went for Obama by more than his national margin of victory.
*CO, which has gone Democratic in 3 of the past 6 elections, including the last 2 (both times by more than Obama's national margin), and which bucked the Republican wave in 2014 by reelecting its Democratic Governor.
*OH, which Obama has carried twice (much to Karl Rove's disbelief)
*FL, which Obama has carried twice, and isn't going to get any easier for Republicans given its increasing Hispanic population and the GOP's increasingly scorched-Earth "They're murderers and rapists!" campaign.
Any one of those, and it's 270 or more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc
I don't see any path to victory for Hillary Clinton.
Which speaks only to your inability to see, nothing more.
In a primary that has lots of black voters [2008 North Carolina: 34% of voters were black, went about 92% for Obama], it's a state that seem obviously better for Obama than many northern ones. As long Obama had some white support, he should win the primary.
Black turnout in NC in 2008 was 23% of the vote. Not 34%.
Carry Virginia, which has trended solidly to the left over the past decade, with Obama carrying it twice, with the growth in the state focused on Democratic areas (NoVA) and demographics (Hispanics), with the state breaking a decades-long trend in 2013 of electing Governors who are members of the party that doesn't control the White House by electing unabashed liberal Terry McAuliffe (who, as a long-time Clinton insider, will be invaluable in assuring the state remains blue).
Yeah, I don't see Virginia going Red again. At least not this campaign cycle. You have a large Black population and the DC suburbs are liberal. There's a staunchly conservative vote in Virginia but it's not growing. There's a ceiling on the support you can rely on from Red Meat Republicans there.
Ahh. So you now trying to describe the election in terms of White bigots vs minorities.
You just lost any legitimacy in whatever argument that you attempted to make.
Let's call a spade a spade. I thought you people were all about getting rid of "political correctness." The beauty of Donald Trump is that his supporters don't have to feel so guilty about their bigoted views, right?
In all honesty and with all due respect I can assure you that your map is a bit over optimistic on the prediction of Mr. Trump's "landslide."
As I stated before the following northeastern states which are put in Trump's column will certainly go for the Deocrat - either Hillary or Bernie - NH, MA, CN, NJ, PA. That's 55 more electoral college votes in the blue column.
Trump will win the all-important Mass hole vote. His campaign manager is from Lowell.
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