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They pretty much are headed for entire states. I still think it's laughable that Port St Lucie is included with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA.
Port St. Lucie isn't included in the Miami-Ft Lauderdale MSA though. It's only included in the CSA.
The Census Bureau also defines a wider region based on commuting patterns, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL Combined Statistical Area (CSA), also known as the Greater Miami Area, with an estimated population of 6,723,472 in 2016.[7]
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Location: Harrisburg, PA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric
However, more realistic and possible for the 2023 census redefinition are;
- Harrisburg + Lancaster
...These that you see above will be the most prolific redefinition gainers in 2023 and even then, some of these may not happen for another decade following 2023. The ones in your list are largely just far out of reach. They don't have the data to back up a realistic merger in the 2020s, if ever.
Port St. Lucie isn't included in the Miami-Ft Lauderdale MSA though. It's only included in the CSA.
The Census Bureau also defines a wider region based on commuting patterns, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Port St. Lucie, FL Combined Statistical Area (CSA), also known as the Greater Miami Area, with an estimated population of 6,723,472 in 2016.[7]
Harrisburg will add Lancaster into its CSA in 2023, the way it added York, PA into its CSA in 2013. The commuting interflow is getting up there and by 2023 should probably be there. Harrisburg is on its way to being an area of 1.8 million people.
Harrisburg will add Lancaster into its CSA in 2023, the way it added York, PA into its CSA in 2013. The commuting interflow is getting up there and by 2023 should probably be there. Harrisburg is on its way to being an area of 1.8 million people.
Thanks for the clarification, and yes I agree. Harrisburg + Lancaster + York already have a lot of overlap with each other as separate MSA's. There are lots of planned infrastructure improvements including the total reconstruction of PA-283 between Harrisburg past Middletown, starting now through 2020.
I meant CSA. Don't know why I put MSA. But the Miami-Fort Lauderdale PSL CSA is pretty much 200 miles north to south. That's hilarious.
Yea, it's crazy since the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale MSA is 120 miles long and contains 6,300,000 people, yet they add another 70 miles of development going north to make it a 190 mile long CSA with 6,700,000 people. That means they added 70 miles just to add a population of only 400,000 people. That's one of the reasons why CSA's are pretty much useless. Just look at the original post in this thread, it's ridiculous at best. The only reason why this thread even exists is because of the silliness of the CSA's.
Yea, it's crazy since the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale MSA is 120 miles long and contains 6,300,000 people, yet they add another 70 miles of development going north to make it 190 miles long with 6,700,000 people. That means they added 70 miles just to add a population of 400,000 people. That's one of the reasons why CSA's are pretty much useless. Just look at the original post in this thread, it's laughable.
It sort of has to be.
The logistics of it all dictates that the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area has to be like that (I prefer to just call it Southeast Florida/South Florida). The entire metropolitan area at its widest point is only something like 20 miles wide. You have water in the form of swamps (the Everglades) on one side, then you have water in the form of bays and the ocean on the other side (the Atlantic), going south you run into water on that side as well. So that only leaves north as the direction for expansion and not even all of the north since there are lakes, wetlands, swamps and the like in that direction to obstruct development as well, so a sliver of the areas of the north really.
By "direction of expansion" what I mean is the area where the future growth in the area will occur because the metropolitan area in every other direction is already tapped out and built out. Nothing left to build on there but intense infill and the process of going vertical are the only options. As the housing prices in South Florida go up due to the scarcity of supply, lack of available land to develop, and the demand for housing, more and more people will move to the Port Saint Lucie area, which is now Southeast Florida's exurb. In fact, in the last one year, Port Saint Lucie went off to add 16,000 people and it didn't add all these people because it is a people magnet, it added these people because of its proximity to Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade.
It won't really matter if Saint Lucie is nearly 200 miles from Miami proper. That isn't the way the South Florida metropolis works as it is. Miami-Dade's development spills into Broward, which spills into Palm Beach, which has increasingly been spilling into the Port Saint Lucie area. The Tri-County Area is already cohesive and built out to its maximum capacity, there are no gaps in development or structural density when going from one county to the next. This is increasingly also going to become true going north into Port Saint Lucie area
I do agree, however, the scenarios played out by the OP in this thread are the height of absurdity. Even on factual grounds, none of those possibilities for CSAs will ever come to pass, especially given that the one with the most connections now (San Francisco Bay Area-Sacramento) only has 3.8% of the commuter interflow when it needs 15% but it also wont come to pass because each of those ancillary areas are independent employment centers.
CSAs only exist because one area begins relying excessively on another (often larger) area for employment, services, amenities, or livelihood. A depressed job market in Providence, for example, is only cause for an increasingly more concentrated relationship between Providence and Boston. The more and more Providence begins to rely on Boston, the less of its independence it will retain and that is why it is apart of the Boston CSA, because it has to rely on Boston to provide its population of the essential things that it no longer cannot do independently.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 04-17-2017 at 02:11 PM..
If any of these get aligned as CSA in 2023 I vote to ban the metric from being able to be used for comparisons.
Baltimore and Washington are not even 40 miles from core to core so that makes some sense. CSA's will be completely useless when you have two cores 90 miles apart being joined for statistical purposes. Even with cross commuting at a 15% threshold.
I'm trying not to cringe at homers using this metric to bolster a size argument over cities that are clearly larger.
The whole process is apparently conducted via a Ouija Board in some conference room at the OMB, as evidenced by other notable instances...my fave the elimination of the Raleigh-Durham MSA into separate bordering MSAs.
Guess this one hinges on commuting between Dorchester County and Wicomico County. Though if it ever happens, that would mean metropolitan DC/Baltimore would technically stretch over 3 hours and 140 miles, all the way to Assateague Island
Even further - since I think the Census definition of metropolitan DC area even includes Frederick County MD, which touches the Pennsylvania border near Emmitsburg......and Loudoun County VA, which extends west to Harpers Ferry. I can't possibly imagine Salisbury being added - that's just wrong. No one from Salisbury commutes to Baltimore or Washington.
The whole process is apparently conducted via a Ouija Board in some conference room at the OMB, as evidenced by other notable instances...my fave the elimination of the Raleigh-Durham MSA into separate bordering MSAs.
Or Holland MI being a part of the Grand Rapids MSA, except for 7sq mi of the city that sits in a different county which is not included in the MSA but is called the Holland MI micropolitan area.
...but at least the whole city is united again in the CSA
Last edited by mjlo; 04-17-2017 at 02:28 PM..
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