JB on CV (Chicago, Peoria, Dakota: violent crime, neighborhood, living in)

[Bitey]

Not all experts agree on that point, not all experts even agree we the shutdown had any significant effect. "Experts" is not some monolith of consensus.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Not all experts agree on that point, not all experts even agree we the shutdown had any significant effect. "Experts" is not some monolith of consensus.

Do you think there would be an immaterial difference in cases and deaths in Illinois compare to actual if we hadn't been shut down the past 8 weeks and did nothing instead?

I find that extremely hard to believe.

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by fusillirob1983

Do you think there would be an immaterial difference in cases and deaths in Illinois compare to actual if we hadn't been shut down the past 8 weeks and did nothing instead?

I find that extremely hard to believe.

Looks like the cat was already out of the bag, and this thing has become widespread despite our best efforts. The state's tests are coming back positive at a rate of 20%, no doubt bolstered by selection bias but still a soberingly high positive result rate. I suspect at best we have traded a few less deaths now in exchange for a few more deaths later, and that in the final analysis it will have not had a significant impact, especially after we get the final estimated death toll from massively contracting the economy.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Bitey

Looks like the cat was already out of the bag, and this thing has become widespread despite our best efforts. The state's tests are coming back positive at a rate of 20%, no doubt bolstered by selection bias but still a soberingly high positive result rate. I suspect at best we have traded a few less deaths now in exchange for a few more deaths later, and that in the final analysis it will have not had a significant impact, especially after we get the final estimated death toll from massively contracting the economy.

But the healthcare system likely would've been overrun, leading to preventable deaths. It seems like you were advocating previously for flattening the curve, but now you're advocating for we should've done nothing and the number of deaths would've been immaterially different.

I'm doubtful any of that makes sense, but Illinois made the decisions it did, undoubtedly fewer people are dead TODAY than if we had no mitigation the last 8 weeks, and hopefully a gradual re-opening will balance health and economics.

[Bitey]

I've never advocated doing nothing, so that should help clear up some of your confusion.

I guess we prevented the health care system from being overwhelmed, if one still takes the "up to 2.2 million deaths if we do nothing" model at face value.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Bitey

I've never advocated doing nothing, so that should help clear up some of your confusion.

I guess we prevented the health care system from being overwhelmed, if one still takes the "up to 2.2 million deaths if we do nothing" model at face value.

I appreciate the clarification.

[My Kind Of Town]

Ed Yong predicted it nearly a month ago when he wrote,” With COVID-19, I fear that the U.S. might enter the neglect phase before the panic part is even finished. If the current shutdown succeeds in flattening the curve, sparing the health-care system and minimizing deaths, it will feel like an overreaction. Contrarians will use the diminished body count to argue that the panic was needless and that the public was misled. Some are already saying that.”

Nailed it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...normal/609940/

[dtcbnd03]

Pritzker shutting down the entire state was always going to be an over reaction. We can forgive a 30 day shut down while we figure out how this virus operates given China lied about it the whole time and to prep the healthcare system. But it became very evident early on this mainly affected the elderly. Extending it to end of May is just a joke. To date less than 200 people under the age of 50 have died from covid in Illinois. Even if you 5x it up to 1,000 its still no reason to shut down the state.

It's time to return to normal while the elderly over age 50 make their own choice on face masks in public. Let's use logic and reason and not fear.

[nikitakolata]

I'm not convinced that we're doing all of this correctly, but I sure do wish I could see and analyze whatever data Prtizker is using to make his decisions myself. I don't trust our government, for better or worse, and I feel like they're keeping their data hidden. Why not make all of it publicly available?

I'm definitely not happy that my business had to be shut down. I'm not happy with how much money I lose everyday due to this pandemic. I'm not happy that my daughter cannot see any of her friends or family. All of this is sad. It sucks. What I want most though, is the data. I want to know what our leaders know. I wish we knew when this would end because I'm not able to plan anything right now. Should I be looking for a nanny for my daughter or will her daycare be open too soon for that to make sense? How long does the governor expect each phase in his plan to last?

I also really worry about all the unintended consequences. People who are unemployed have higher all cause mortality. Are we saving enough lives to make up for that? What is the lack of socialization and real school doing to our kids? I think it's clear that this is bad for everyone's mental health.

[My Kind Of Town]

Surprised no one posted this;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago...-lena-illinois