Does voting matter in MA? (Boston, Worcester: real estate, low crime, homes)

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

No white flight absolutely is happening in a meaningful way in MA. There are a solid 350k fewer whites in MA than in 2000.

It’s just less extreme than CT RI NJ NY MD CA. But it’s undeniably a real thing. It’s that, plus the lowest white broth rate in the nation and some of the fastest growing immigrant populations in the nation. No state other than Florida has held up its prewar trump immigration levels as well as MA. The next two after MA are RI and CT.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._net_migration

It's called pushing out of the middle class. Most traditional middle class in Mass. are white, so...

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

White flight, huh? MA is becoming less white because birth rates are low and population growth is coming from immigration, i.e., despite whatever is happening in your little far-right enclave, "white flight" is not happening in meaningful way.

No I think this is false. That’s just two side of it. MA has simply lost too many white people too quickly for that to be the case.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by massnative71

It's called pushing out of the middle class. Most traditional middle class in Mass. are white, so...

Correct it’s been happening all over the northeast for 20 years. The difference is MA has favorable taxes for the upper middle and upper class compared to its neighbor so they’ve been able to retain there. And of course The Metro Boston job market has been able to track many wealthy and educated out of state white people to offset the losses. Things get more complicated here because the new arrivals are more educated and then to have fewer children then the native middle-class white population. This is why the school age population has diversified much more rapidly than MAs population in general. That’s the norm in MA CT RI but not for most of the country.

Once you get north of MA-new hampshire has been steadily gaining white people since forever

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Have they really though? If anything, it seems nobody these days wants to identify with either party (even diehard Trump fans or leftist "woke" types). And I personally find the opposite on social issues. As public opinion has shifted further left on some things, it seems the Democratic part has gone even FURTHER left. People I previously knew as liberal seem uneasy with and unable to defend transgender bathrooms, defunding the police, free handouts to illegals, and other stuff the Dems seem to have little room for dissenters on. If they push too far, public sentiment could easily start swinging back in the other direction. I'm thinking of the white 30-year old politically moderate/socially liberal nerd type in Portland, OR, now watching his city burn and erupt in chaos.

As much I might be annoyed with Dems exhausting political capital on issues like Transgender bathrooms ... an issue which is more or less a nuthingburger in progressive urban areas ... it rather pales in comparison to concerns regarding other policies/problems such as police reform, wealth inequality, immigration, healthcare (particularly the 'women's health' bucket), etc.

The problem the GOP has, particularly in dense urban areas like MA, is that the younger voting block is more diverse and more urban (i.e., less likely to fall into a monolithic echo chamber). A lot of the fear mongering around illegals, defunding the police, etc. isn't really that effective on this demographic because the demographic has too much direct or indirect context. I have friends in Portland ... their houses aren't burning. I've had college peers who were 'Dreamers'. I had a transgender woman on my dorm floor ... 'she' didn't rape anyone in bathrooms nor did anyone care she was in them.

I voted for Romney in 2012, so I very much represent the type of MA moderate centrist Millenial who might flip the state ... a vote which the GOP lost permanently by full embracing the party of of Trump. MA isn't likely to "pull a Reagan" any time soon ... and with the Silent Gen and Boomers slipping into the void, the likelihood decreases by the day. To do so, they'd need to reform into a moderate Dems.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

No I think this is false. That’s just two side of it. MA has simply lost too many white people too quickly for that to be the case.

I don't think white retirees cashing out of their expensive, high tax, premier school district properties to live in a lower COL state really qualifies as 'white flight' ... at least not in the manner some on this forum wish to portray. It has little to do with culture or governance and everything to do with personal finances.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Correct it’s been happening all over the northeast for 20 years. The difference is MA has favorable taxes for the upper middle and upper class compared to its neighbor so they’ve been able to retain there. And of course The Metro Boston job market has been able to track many wealthy and educated out of state white people to offset the losses. Things get more complicated here because the new arrivals are more educated and then to have fewer children then the native middle-class white population. This is why the school age population has diversified much more rapidly than MAs population in general. That’s the norm in MA CT RI but not for most of the country.

Once you get north of MA-new hampshire has been steadily gaining white people since forever

I wouldn't call it white flight if the reason of the flight is lack of jobs and expensive housing. Is more another aspect of gentrification. If leaving diverse community was a drive of the move a lot of people would move to central MA but there is little move that way.
Jobs and housing represent circa 50% of the reasons why people are leaving MA
https://www.bostonindicators.org/art...onal-migration

Besides birth/death rates play a increasing role too. In 2010 (just 10 years ago!) the difference between births and deaths in MA was 0. In 2017 it was -11,000 (11,000 more deaths than births). For blacks is stable as +5,000. For Asians is also roughly stable at +5,000. For Hispanics went from +9,000 to +11,000.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/2017-birth-...ted-0/download
https://www.mass.gov/doc/2017-death-report/download

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

I don't think white retirees cashing out of their expensive, high tax, premier school district properties to live in a lower COL state really qualifies as 'white flight' ... at least not in the manner some on this forum wish to portray. It has little to do with culture or governance and everything to do with personal finances.

Yea I don’t know if any full states are swing that type of white flight other than maybe California... 9/10 times it comes down to personal finances.

But ultimately the finances and the pressures that push people out at an older age is part culture and part governance that creates that environment in any given state. If the state shifted its priorities and zoning then you might get a situation where fewer white people leave (New Hampshire)

Anecdotally I think white young people born in Massachusetts leave Massachusetts for places like Arizona Florida and Georgia..though that may be a more recent phenomenon. I don’t have any hard data to back that up just looking at my HS class on FB-a huge portion are no longer in MA. But it does seem like young white people from Connecticut love the Boston area.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Lampert

I wouldn't call it white flight if the reason of the flight is lack of jobs and expensive housing. Is more another aspect of gentrification. If leaving diverse community was a drive of the move a lot of people would move to central MA but there is little move that way.
Jobs and housing represent circa 50% of the reasons why people are leaving MA
https://www.bostonindicators.org/art...onal-migration

Besides birth/death rates play a increasing role too. In 2010 (just 10 years ago!) the difference between births and deaths in MA was 0. In 2017 it was -11,000 (11,000 more deaths than births). For blacks is stable as +5,000. For Asians is also roughly stable at +5,000. For Hispanics went from +9,000 to +11,000.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/2017-birth-...ted-0/download
https://www.mass.gov/doc/2017-death-report/download

Yea no I don’t think people are fleeing diversity because there plenty places to live with zero diversity in MA- but I would still call it white flight. Just because that’s basically what it is and there’s no other concise term for it.

But I do think some people who are averse to diversity and progressive politics do leave MA for NH.

Yea 15 year ago MA schools were about 73% white, today (2020/21)they might be 57% white

What’s interesting is from 1994-2005 schools only went from 79% white to 73%. So the bulk of the change has been in the past 15 years.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

As much I might be annoyed with Dems exhausting political capital on issues like Transgender bathrooms ... an issue which is more or less a nuthingburger in progressive urban areas ... it rather pales in comparison to concerns regarding other policies/problems such as police reform, wealth inequality, immigration, healthcare (particularly the 'women's health' bucket), etc.

The problem the GOP has, particularly in dense urban areas like MA, is that the younger voting block is more diverse and more urban (i.e., less likely to fall into a monolithic echo chamber). A lot of the fear mongering around illegals, defunding the police, etc. isn't really that effective on this demographic because the demographic has too much direct or indirect context. I have friends in Portland ... their houses aren't burning. I've had college peers who were 'Dreamers'. I had a transgender woman on my dorm floor ... 'she' didn't rape anyone in bathrooms nor did anyone care she was in them.

I voted for Romney in 2012, so I very much represent the type of MA moderate centrist Millenial who might flip the state ... a vote which the GOP lost permanently by full embracing the party of of Trump. MA isn't likely to "pull a Reagan" any time soon ... and with the Silent Gen and Boomers slipping into the void, the likelihood decreases by the day. To do so, they'd need to reform into a moderate Dems.

Agreed. I don't identify with either party (registered independent), but I'm further from voting for a national GOP candidate than I ever have before. Prior to '16, my previous four presidential votes were split - 2 for GOP and 2 for Dem candidates. Hillary Clinton was my least favorite Democratic candidate in the years I've been able to vote, but voting for her was the easiest decision I had to make in a presidential election to date.

I realize I'm only one voter, but the modern GOP platform simply doesn't resonate for the reasons you mention. The narratives about crime, unrest, cities, law and order/police, etc. just don't stick because they don't reflect the reality of my life (in a "democrat run city"). At all. It's the least relatable platform in my memory. I think this applies to a lot of left-leaning moderates in MA. I think the vast majority of voters in MA are pretty firmly entrenched (on both sides) at this point. I think this is true for most of the country considering how far apart the sides are.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

No white flight absolutely is happening in a meaningful way in MA. There are a solid 350k fewer whites in MA than in 2000.

I wonder how much of that change comes from Central/Western MA and Cape Cod vs the Boston area?