holy taxes, batman ! New York Times story on West Orange (Westfield: house, best schools)

[mark212cpa]

I have been following the developments and changes in West Orange since 1997. Through my close professional and personal relationships with several real estate broker owners & two mortgage bankers in the area, I get regular feedback and updates on West Orange. Since I have an open and confidential relationship with them, I often get honest personal views, assessments & concerns from these people that they would never openly broadcast to potential customers/buyers.

Here's my two cents on West Orange today.

WO today has 3 MAJOR ISSUES that really has the concern and attention of its local politicians, local realtors, mortgage bankers, and informed residents.

Issue # 1 - The dramatic, consistent, & regular decline of White Enrollment in its public school system. ( Back in 1999, the white enrollment in WO public schools was at about 44%. Today, as of 2009 stats, the white enrollment in WO public schools is at about 26%. The white enrollment of students has declined every single year in the last 10 years. While the percentage of African-American and Latino enrollments have increased every single year. Back in 1999, the Black/Latino enrollment was at about 58%. Today, as of 2009, is at about 70% with the remaing difference being Asian)

KEY Point for comparison: Back in 1999, West Orange had about the same % of white student body at about 44% with Maplewood-South Orange school district. Today, as of 2009, Maplewood-South Orange has maintained a White enrollment at about 42% while WO as mentioned above has dramatically dropped to about 26%. In other words, the BIGGEST TAKEAWAY comparison between WO compared to SO/MPL is that SO/MPL has successfully been able to STABILIZED the Racial Make-up of its town in the last 10 years.

If you have followed the saga of South Orange/Maplewood- the BIGGEST CONCERN of many back in the 1990's was IF the town would Literally HIT a TIPPING POINT of white flight due to the surge in Blacks moving in. The town aggressively addressed the issue including spending massively ( I believe they spent about $ 150,000 ) in supporting a town citizens committee whose job was to Promote the benefits of diversity, racial integration at all levels of the town. From reaching out to parents of school age kids to Senior citizens in the community. Looking back it obviously did some good because it stopped the movement of white flight that occured in the early/mid 90's.

So KEY ISSUE # 1 for WO is --- The REAL POSSIBILITY in the Next 5-10 years ( especially with sky rocketing taxes, a yearly increase of special need mostly minority kids that is adding pressure to its schools, and the continued yearly increase in transfers of white, & Asian students out of WO public schools into private jewish schools and parochial catholic schools of nearby towns of Livingston, Verona, going as far as Short Hills, East Hanover, & Florham Park catholic schools.) of West Orange public schools being a " All Minority public school system. (similar to its bordeline neighbor Orange.) If this should happen, one of the major casualties would be Real estate values.

Issue # 2 - SKY HIGH TAXES - the reassessment this Fall will be extremely critical in helping to predict the possible direction of this town in the Next 5 years. ( I am personally confident that it will overall be a wash. Some will be happy, some will be angry. It may turnout to be the great equalizer in WO taxes )

Key Point: West Orange today has the distinction of being one of the Highest Walk out Foreclosures due to Property taxes in the state. Meaning, it has a Very high ratio of Homeowners who lose their homes or are in default due in large part to their High tax Bill ( and not their PI mortgage payment)

The biggest danger here is it gives another reason for homeowners to just give up & move. ( especially a segment of white parents who are unhappy as it is with the rapid demographic changes in it schools )

Yes, WO has produced kids some kids who are accepted to Tier 1 colleges. The only problem here is these kids are the exceptions. The challenge for the system is the 90% of kids in the middle & lower range of the spectrum.
So far, WO overall has done better or at par with its other essex county neighbors. But they are well behind its more affluent neighboring towns of Livingston, Glen Ridge, & Millburn.
Its hanging on to this kids from moving out of town or the system that will be needed in order to create stability.

And Issue # 3 - The infamous "Tipping Point" scenario. The BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE MINDS OF REALTORS, MORTAGE PROFESSIONALS, MANY RESIDENTS- BLACK & WHITE IS THAT NO ONE DARES DISCUSS PUBLICLY is......

Will West Orange TIP in the next several years to come ??? And the answer is NO ONE KNOWS !

As mentioned above, MAPLEWOOD & SOUTH ORANGE have managed to stabilize the " white flight" of residents that threatened them in the 90's.

Key Points: MONTCLAIR has actually INCREASED its % of enrollment of White students in its public schools compared to 1999.

-Interestingly, the Income Gap between White & Black residents in actually smallest in West Orange, compared to white vs. black income in Maplewood, SO & Montclair.

- The biggest & most dramatic white flight in West Orang has been its " Down the Hill" section of WO. It was once an enclaved of Working Class Blue collar whites. Today, it is predominantly Black & Latino. ( this is the thomas edison factory area)

In less than a decade, whites have move out in huge numbers in this area of WO.
This section always really had a silent tension between working class whites & the massive minorities moving in. After all, it was these white families in this specific area who first hand witnessed the horror & rapid decline of its borderline town of Orange, Newark, Irvington & East Orange right after the Newark riots in late 1960'

Its actually ironic to find that it was wealthy white west orange residents living "up the hill" who were always open & warm about intergration of minorities in WO.

We shall all see what direction west orange takes in the next 5 years to come.

P.S. Most veteran realtors would agree privately that the Deep National & State Recession we are in right now has actually "slowed down" or at least "temporarily" stopped any significant white movement out of WO. The halt in real estate activity combined with slow hiring, layoffs has pretty much left people in standstill at this point. The BIG question is what happens when the state recovers? We shall see.

[bradykp]

elflord, i'm very familiar with lower merion. i am not sure what you define as "middle clas", but only the upper middle class can afford to live in that school district, even in the "more affordable" parts of it. there's a few public schools in the suburbs of philly that can stack up to some of the schools in NJ, but for the most part, PA public schools are horrible, with a couple good ones speckled in across the state. in NEPA for instance, there's Abington and North Pocono. All the other schools in about a 100 mile radius are pretty substandard as far as basic "higher measures" of quality such as AP courses (my public school district offered none - not one advanced class at all). luckily, the private schools in the area weren't horrible unaffordable (but are getting pretty high these days!).

not sure where you commute to, but driving around philly to get to some parts is a nightmare, not to mention you have to take on the cost of a car and insurance (philly insurance isn't cheap either, even by NJ standards!). of course, there are plenty of exceptions to the rule, but in many comparisons myself and some friends have done, considering the salary cut and the other costs we'd take on, philly area isn't much cheaper than living near NYC and having a NYC salary.

but don't get me wrong - i love the philly area and the suburbs around it. it's different, not in a better way or a worse way, it's just different.


i think we're saying a lot of the same things - bottom line is, it comes down to what people want and what they can afford. maybe i will move to millburn in 14 yrs when i have a kid going to high school. maybe millburn will be the 98th best high school in NJ, as West Orange is now. who knows? maybe millburn won't be 80% white and 20% asian. maybe, even if millburn is the best high school in NJ, i would like my kids to see more than whites and asians?

i grew up going to private schools in PA because the public schools weren't great, and looking back I personally thing one of the main differences was, at my private school, every kid's parent cared, so pretty much every kid succeeded. That's how you get those 95%+ stats of kids going to college. in a public school like Millburn, where the houses cost what they cost, maybe more parents care? maybe west orange, which is a bit more diverse, statistically is worse because statistically it has a wider variety of people. I'm not singling out minorities, because you can be darn sure there's plenty of white people that don't give a crap about their kids' grades. but i don't think that because one school sends 95% of the kids to college and one sends (i don't know WOs actual stat) 80%, that that is solely a reflection of the quality of the school.

someone has to be a plumber, an electrician, a construction worker. etc. maybe more of those kids are at WO high school and have no need to go to college. Maybe it's more kids of parents that don't care. Maybe it's that WO isn't as good of a school.

that's the great thing about statistics - they can tell any story you want to tell, or don't want to tell.

[bradykp]

wow - continuously amazed at the blatant racism on this forum that appears sometimes!

[CRDolan]

markcp- great info. Actually, many of your points were discussed in detail by West orange Mayor Keon & one of the candidates for councilor at a public forum last year.
I believe most agreed that copying the integration citizens committee initiative that was done by south orange and maplewood was worth serious consideration.
Everyone in the public forum agreed- ( De Vincenzo was I believe also present) that doing Nothing was the worse step. Many towns and cities across the nation have been thru this in the last 40 years. Some towns made it & thrived while others went downhill. Ignoring this tranformation or doing nothing is dangerous.

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by bradykp

just to set the record straight, who gives a crap about ivy league schools? we don't all fall for that crap. I didn't go to an ivy, and i'm doing quite alright.

as for DINKYs, i'm perfectly happy with living in west orange, and i have a kid on the way. the schools are good enough - will i stay here forever? i don't know. but the schools don't have to be perfect, they just need to be good. unless you're a parent that doesn't think you need to be involved in your kids' lives - then move to the best school district in the state and let the teachers raise your kids for you...

Yeah I wasn't the one who said the schools were great because some kids went to Ivy league schools.

Of course the standard answer to less than stellar test results is "it doesn't matter as long as you are involved".

[Obrero]

Originally Posted by bradykp

"The school was the 114th-ranked public high school in New Jersey out of 316 schools statewide, in New Jersey Monthly magazine's September 2008 cover story on the state's Top Public High Schools. The school was ranked 98th in the magazine's September 2006 issue, which surveyed 316 schools across the state."

now, millburn high school is far better. in 2008, the magazine named them #1. they have a high percentage going to 4 yr schools. but, if you want to use ivy's as the measure, 29 of 315 went to ivy's. i'll work on the west orange stats for you soon. but the point isn't that west orange is the best school in the state, it's that it's a good school.

The NJ Monthly rankings are generally regarded as a joke. I will be interested in seeing the stats you provide. I can only go by the SAT results, HS proficiency rates and 4-year college entry rates I posted earlier. It would seem to me that for the high taxes paid one can get much better schooling elsewhere. But each to his own.

[stevemorse]

One good thing about High taxes, it keeps the rift raft out. No worries of Coors light and lawn tractors!!!

[bradykp]

Originally Posted by Obrero

The NJ Monthly rankings are generally regarded as a joke. I will be interested in seeing the stats you provide. I can only go by the SAT results, HS proficiency rates and 4-year college entry rates I posted earlier. It would seem to me that for the high taxes paid one can get much better schooling elsewhere. But each to his own.

wait, the NJ Monthly rankings are based on the things you just spoke about, but they're a joke?

Yet you regard SAT scores highly when it's a known fact that some students simply don't do well on that test, even if they excel in college? I mean, we all know there needs to be standardized testing, but really. And as I said, the 4 year college entry rates do not necessarily tell the entire picture.

and when comparing taxes, what if one city provides more or better services to their residents? doesn't that get counted in the tax comparison? it's not all going to the school. the bottom line is, the school isn't crappy. it may not be the best, but if it's in the top third of the state in a rankings list, that has to mean something.

maybe the school should be better, but i thought it was good to know last night that i read the student/teacher ratio at the high school was 11.5. that's pretty good no?

[tahiti]

Originally Posted by bradykp

wait, the NJ Monthly rankings are based on the things you just spoke about, but they're a joke?

Yet you regard SAT scores highly when it's a known fact that some students simply don't do well on that test, even if they excel in college? I mean, we all know there needs to be standardized testing, but really. And as I said, the 4 year college entry rates do not necessarily tell the entire picture.

and when comparing taxes, what if one city provides more or better services to their residents? doesn't that get counted in the tax comparison? it's not all going to the school. the bottom line is, the school isn't crappy. it may not be the best, but if it's in the top third of the state in a rankings list, that has to mean something.

maybe the school should be better, but i thought it was good to know last night that i read the student/teacher ratio at the high school was 11.5. that's pretty good no?

you know, I have to give you props. you seem to understand that services cost money and aren't like most posters on this board, who incessantly whine about taxes. you knew what you were getting into, aren't crying foul after the fact (which the people featured in the article are doing) and seem to have a good head on your shoulders. you understand the need to hold the elected officials accountable, but on the other hand you accept that sometimes you need to pay a premium for location/service. Bravo! (and I'm not kidding here )

[JERSEY MAN]

Tahiti you sound like a tax lover. Yes we have to pay for services, BUT we don't want to pay for unnecessary and unneeded services. No application for you into the tea party