Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (foreclose, employment)

[Ritchie_az]

The breakdown from the sales figures of a couple days ago showed the biggest decline in the cheapest houses.

Interesting. Are those list prices are sale prices?

I know that is not the detail you seek, but it does put a little light on the situation.

No, no, I'm not trying to "prove" my theory by looking only for data to prove it. I'm interested in the truth. If the truth doesn't fit my theory, than my theory needs to be adjusted.

Thanks.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

Interesting. Are those list prices are sale prices?



No, no, I'm not trying to "prove" my theory by looking only for data to prove it. I'm interested in the truth. If the truth doesn't fit my theory, than my theory needs to be adjusted.

Thanks.

I could have been more clear. The declines I am talking about are in sales not sale prices. I did not see anything on that other than that the mean sale price increased in July from June nationally.

[Ritchie_az]

I could have been more clear. The declines I am talking about are in sales not sale prices. I did not see anything on that other than that the mean sale price increased in July from June nationally.

Is this nationally or locally you are talking about?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

Is this nationally or locally you are talking about?

Nationally. It was some of the story behind the "Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Lowest Level in 15 Years" story this week. The details showed that the northeast and midwest were smacked a lot harder than the west and south - but no details for AZ specifically.

I will go out on a limb and predict that we will continue to see the rest of the country do worse than the south and west. Median prices in a lot of the US are over 200K where they are almost half that around here and in TX, FL, NV etc. They are pushing affordability limits where anyone with two minimum wage jobs can afford a decent place here. That's the giant sucking sound of cheap housing that made Phoenix boom in the past. I can hear it in the distance already. Of course it all comes down to jobs. On that front we got the first positive unemployment report in a month today. Made oil go up, LOL.

[actinic]

Link correction: http://azstarnet.com/article_05bd1cc...e18642b0f.html

[sh9730]

Yep - I started to type a post on one of the threads EnicAZ is participating that I was dubious, but didnt finish it and got interrupted. Thanks Ritchie!

[slackjaw]

Originally Posted by Greatday

"Most" jobs have been outsourced? Really.

I hate when I see "facts" like that, things so obviously verified as false that there really is no point in even responding. The US doesn't manufacture anything anymore, there are no more well paying jobs left in Phoenix, there is no more middle class, the United States is pretty much a third world country now, nobody can afford to go to college anymore, and so on.

These posts usually come from people who aren't doing very well, and I think it fills a psychological need to lower their perception of the playing field to where they aren't to blame since everyone else sucks too.

[EnicAZ]

Originally Posted by Desertspiritsteve

I just happened to check the assessor's website this morning, and my 2010 property taxes are now there. My property valuation is back to the purchase price in 1986. The tax bill is half what it was in 2009. The county won't be able to survive with a revenue hit like that, will it?

It is a major concern, as the taxes are going to have to come from somewhere. It certainly is good relief for property tax payers for this year.

To the person above, long term asset deflation has been a hot topic in the news.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Desertspiritsteve

I just happened to check the assessor's website this morning, and my 2010 property taxes are now there. My property valuation is back to the purchase price in 1986. The tax bill is half what it was in 2009. The county won't be able to survive with a revenue hit like that, will it?

Thanks for the heads up on the tax info being out. My tax cut is not so dramatic as yours but it is down about 25-30% from 09 and that is welcome. Some of the reduction might be due to paid up bonds. I know, in my case, that Goodyear cut its rate due to a surplus too. The county would have already adopted its budget based on the current valuations and projected revenues. Next year could be worse though based on the 2011 valuation. I hope my Coconino property goes down too, but those liberals up in Flagstaff know how to squeeze blood from a turnip when it comes to property taxes.

[Ritchie_az]

Nationally. It was some of the story behind the "Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Lowest Level in 15 Years" story this week. The details showed that the northeast and midwest were smacked a lot harder than the west and south - but no details for AZ specifically.

I will go out on a limb and predict that we will continue to see the rest of the country do worse than the south and west. Median prices in a lot of the US are over 200K where they are almost half that around here and in TX, FL, NV etc. They are pushing affordability limits where anyone with two minimum wage jobs can afford a decent place here. That's the giant sucking sound of cheap housing that made Phoenix boom in the past. I can hear it in the distance already. Of course it all comes down to jobs. On that front we got the first positive unemployment report in a month today. Made oil go up, LOL.

OK, thanks, Ponderosa!