Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Mesa: movers, tax)

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

The grand assumption that "everyone" is in foreclosure or will be "any second now" makes for great TeeVee, but it isn't the truth. Over 30% of the population doesn't have a mortgage, and that number may be increasing, since many of the properties sold over the past couple years were purchased without a mortgage - and others were purchased by those who actually planned to live in them, not trade them like baseball cards.

Zillow might say my house is worth $XXX, but it isn't for sale, and it won't be until I'm done with it. My subdivision was built in the late 80's, and in that time there have been several "booms" and "busts" in Phoenix - this most recent "boom" might have been the biggest, but many people in my neighborhood bought these properties new, and didn't sell even in the face of nearly 400% overall "appreciation".

There's also quite alot of monkey-business going on in the RE trade right now - I've seen properties pop in MLS as a short-sale for an awesome price, then go "pending" three minutes later! The comments were along the lines of "Solid Buyer in place, don't bother us with offers"... Checking back a couple of months later, the agent is quietly added to the deed...

FWIW, I reported a couple of these to the FBI's "task force" and never even got a response - in Arizona, if you steal a six-pack from a Circle-K you'll get a trip to tent-city... But if you rob a bank with a pen you'll retire young.

I'd wondered about this as well, saw some of this while shopping for our house. As for the buyers credit, to break the stalemate all they'd have to say is "if we revive the credit it will be retroactive to the end of the last credit". That would remove any hesitation of people waiting to see if it happens.

[sh9730]

Enic -

Ok, we get your position. No need to repost the exact same statement every day.

[Ritchie_az]

sh9730,
it wasn't the exact same statement that EnicAZ reposted. He left out that home prices will fall nearly by half, and that ARMLS data and wild speculation at his office shows that we are spiraling out of control! Ah!

Otherwise, yeah, it was the same daily repost.

[hart4july]

Well my question was more simple than it was interpreted, but Zippy I can see it was a chance for you to quote more statistics!
Very simple: If a typical, non investment buyer puts off buying until "the Bottom" is declared, will they risk regular sale homes being limited. Typical non investment buyer wants a desirable, well cared for home in good area to live in for 10+ yrs, but does not want to overpay.

I have no assumption that regular sales are no more, but when you are "done" with your home but the market stinks, are you more likely to hold on to it rather than sell if you feel its a really nice home?

Again, I have been pouring over listing photos for several years, I am knowledgeable on home design and appeal, and it seems now that we are finally close to buying a nice home in this area, the quality of available home appears to have gone down to me. I worry that there may be even slimmer pickings if we wait too long, even if prices are lower.

[EnicAZ]

Hi sh9730,

If we can have a dramatic turnaround in the job market, I think we can get home prices to stabilize with the $8,000 tax credit no longer being offered. This is another reason I have been looking into job creation methods.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Hi sh9730,

If we can have a dramatic turnaround in the job market, I think we can get home prices to stabilize with the $8,000 tax credit no longer being offered....

Yet more of the same rhetoric. Yes, it is obvious a decrease in unemployment will have a positive impact. It is not a unique concept.

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

The grand assumption that "everyone" is in foreclosure or will be "any second now" makes for great TeeVee, but it isn't the truth. Over 30% of the population doesn't have a mortgage, and that number may be increasing, since many of the properties sold over the past couple years were purchased without a mortgage - and others were purchased by those who actually planned to live in them, not trade them like baseball cards.

Zillow might say my house is worth $XXX, but it isn't for sale, and it won't be until I'm done with it. My subdivision was built in the late 80's, and in that time there have been several "booms" and "busts" in Phoenix - this most recent "boom" might have been the biggest, but many people in my neighborhood bought these properties new, and didn't sell even in the face of nearly 400% overall "appreciation".

There's also quite alot of monkey-business going on in the RE trade right now - I've seen properties pop in MLS as a short-sale for an awesome price, then go "pending" three minutes later! The comments were along the lines of "Solid Buyer in place, don't bother us with offers"... Checking back a couple of months later, the agent is quietly added to the deed...

FWIW, I reported a couple of these to the FBI's "task force" and never even got a response - in Arizona, if you steal a six-pack from a Circle-K you'll get a trip to tent-city... But if you rob a bank with a pen you'll retire young.

I had a realtor tell me that there is nothing wrong with this and that she was out for herself (her exact words) as far as she was concerned. I think there is nothing stating in the law that realtors can't be investors and purchase homes. Needless to say I found another realtor.

[EnicAZ]

With no tax credit available to buyers, it has had a dramatic impact on sales numbers. The focus does really need to be on employment and unemployment, as it is the key driver of the ability to afford a home. I just don't know where job creation is going to take place, and some thing say it is only going to get worse. We are in a global market with deflationary forces.

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

With no tax credit available to buyers, it has had a dramatic impact on sales numbers. The focus does really need to be on employment and unemployment, as it is the key driver of the ability to afford a home. I just don't know where job creation is going to take place, and some thing say it is only going to get worse. We are in a global market with deflationary forces.

We won't have jobs until corporations are comfortable with what taxes are heading their way. If Brewer would offer some tax breaks to companies thinking about coming to AZ then maybe we might see a little uptick. I hope we don't do another tax credit and forgive me if would benifit you in the short term, but I think we are about out of stimulous funds.

[jimj]

[quote=MotleyCrew;15793270]We won't have jobs until corporations are comfortable with what taxes are heading their way. If Brewer would offer some tax breaks to companies thinking about coming to AZ then maybe we might see a little uptick. I hope we don't do another tax credit and forgive me if would benifit you in the short term, but I think we are about out of stimulous funds.[/QUOTE]

That's ok, they can just fire up the press' again.