Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (Goodyear: living, utility costs)

[Ritchie_az]

I R-E-A-L-L-Y want to buy a home from EnicAZ but his office won't let me.

Laugh of the day!

[Ritchie_az]

There are a lot of foreclosures in Goodyear (only south of 10). Western Surprise is currently also hard hit.

With both of those areas being so nice, I have to believe people will see this is an opportunity and buy those places up. One man's loss is another's gain. Someone will be living in those homes before long....

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

With both of those areas being so nice, I have to believe people will see this is an opportunity and buy those places up. One man's loss is another's gain. Someone will be living in those homes before long....

One of those people might be me!

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by Ritchie_az

With both of those areas being so nice, I have to believe people will see this is an opportunity and buy those places up. One man's loss is another's gain. Someone will be living in those homes before long....

I really like the Surprise area and will probably buy something there the end of the year of mid 2011. It is supplementa income to us and we are not buying for the flip of it. I am sure long term investors will see the value there and hopefully soon. I just don't think values will be where they were for a decade. So for those who want a nice home for a steal of a deal and low interest rates, I would jump. You won't be at the bottom for very long, especially if you are young. For those who want immediate gain, go find a stock. Buy gold if you trust that. I would never tell a client that they could get rich in real estate today because you can get just as poor just as fast.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/docs/greater%20phoenix%20august%20sales.jpg (broken link)

Data from the Cromford report. Sept 1st, 2010.

Note, the median price of August 2010 of $120K (the monthly $ per square foot was -3.6%. But sales were up 500 homes over July's dismal numbers.

[sh9730]

I gotta say - I dont find that information that bad - especially on a month over month basis? I dont think many people didnt expect a sharp downturn for awhile after the credit expired. BUT, to see things basically flat or even one or two improving in many categories on monthly basis seems like a good basis for a bottom to me, especially since it has occurred after the expiration of the credit.

I notice similar trends in my local market. Active listings have shot up from a low of 275 (in my zip code at that end of April) to the current level of about 390-400 (but not yet over 400). But, that rate of increase has steadied considerably in my view, and we are now hovering at this new level.

That does mean a much larger "monthly inventory" than we have been used to over the last couple years, BUT it is still only about 6 months in my neighborhood based on current monthly sales rates. In the old days that was considered "balanced". We have just sort of been used to low inventory rates over the last couple years. I have also noticed that despite the inventory increase, ASKING PRICES on a per sq ft basis are actually rising a bit. That could of course account for some of the additional inventory if people are not willing to sell at lower prices. But it also could be (and my unscientific viewing confirms this) that some of the inventory is now "normal" and not "distressed".

Maybe we are just finally getting back to a "normal" market. With smaller price fluctuations both down and up, and a more balanced inventory to choose from.

Of course I have no way to know how many more foreclosures will pop into the market at what pace....but again, that cromford screen doesnt make me fear for the world to collapse at all!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Of course I have no way to know how many more foreclosures will pop into the market at what pace....but again, that cromford screen doesnt make me fear for the world to collapse at all!

We agree. I was expecting much worse numbers based off of what I have been reading. The cost per sq foot drop is surprising based off of these numbers. The only thing I can think of is people are getting nervous OR people have to sell. 7500 home sales in a month is not the end of the world.

[imdarwinsdream]

what is the average price pr square foot right now? When you buy a foreclosure is it always possible to see the property first? I guess i don't understand some of the wording in the foreclosure ads.
Thanks for the link on foreclosures - very helpful.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by imdarwinsdream

what is the average price pr square foot right now? When you buy a foreclosure is it always possible to see the property first? I guess i don't understand some of the wording in the foreclosure ads.
Thanks for the link on foreclosures - very helpful.

Well, if you look at the September Cromford data above, average is around $85/sf based on monthly sales. Keep in mind that this is an average across all metro Phoenix and all home types. The value can change dramatically depending on where you want to buy (e.g., Scottsdale vs. Surprise).

You can normally see any property (including foreclosures) before putting in an offer. I'd never recommend buying sight unseen.

[azjack]

Pretty bearish video report here:

51% Of Phoenix Homes Underwater, Analysts Say - Phoenix News Story - KPHO Phoenix

"Death spiral" is probably even harsher than my usual assessment, but 51% underwater is an ugly number.