Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (taxes, to live in)

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

I try to focus my energy on thinking of ways to improve the job market, as wage deflation is taking a very heavy toll on both home values and rents.

I wish more people had this same attitude. Maintaining positive thinking is much better than walking around complaining all the time.

The market is the way it is and not much anybody can do anything about. The market will correct itself but will take time so for now, why not just make "lemonade out of lemons".

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Hi Zippy,

I feel like you are upset with the data which came out of our formulas for the 25-40% price declines in the Phoenix area. Believe me, we are very upset too, but the data is what it is. We can't change the facts by complaining about how we don't like them. I try to focus my energy on thinking of ways to improve the job market, as wage deflation is taking a very heavy toll on both home values and rents.

I'd be interested to know which RE office you are at. I haven't heard of one staffed by economists. Perhaps you can also publish your formulas (or are they proprietary)? An RE office not trying to sell homes is a new one for me. Where does your revenue come from?

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by rjrcm

I'd be interested to know which RE office you are at. I haven't heard of one staffed by economists. Perhaps you can also publish your formulas (or are they proprietary)? An RE office not trying to sell homes is a new one for me. Where does your revenue come from?

Lots of offices don't sell residential (SFO) homes. They may do commercial, property management etc.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by Greatday

Lots of offices don't sell residential (SFO) homes. They may do commercial, property management etc.

True, I should have qualified my statement. From his previous comments, I assumed he was in residential sales.

[jimj]

My personal observations as of late support the idea of cheaper to buy then rent. As I've said before I've been watching the houses in our area that were bought and rented out. Across the street the house was on the market for a whole month before being rented at around $1100 a month. House was purchased out of forclosure for $105k the month prior. Talking with friends who've lost their houses recently and they say that there are slim pickens out there and what they do find is overpriced junk or in bad areas.

So, you're getting all these people who have to live somewhere and can't qualify for a mortgage for the next several years and add in lack luster sales so where is the new rental inventory going to come from?
Doesn't it make some sense to take advantage of the drought in rentals?

[actinic]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Without a government incentive, the market has become paralyzed. I am hoping for some sort of positive sparkle in the job market, but I don't know what it will be.

Government incentives are the problem, not the solution.

[sh9730]

Actually right now the POSSIBILITY of gov't incentives is part of the problem. People now expect that there will be another credit so they are waiting it out in that hope. They need to either get a new one going (if that is the eventuality for good or bad) or make it VERY clear there will not be another one.

Its sort of along the lines of the Bush tax cuts - whether they are going to expire or not - there needs to be some clarity.

Once people know one way or the other on another housing tax credit - they will make decisions. But for now those not in a hurry would rather wait and see, than jump in and possibly miss out on a few thousand bucks.

Note - I am not advocating for or against another credit - just the clarity of the situation once and for all.

[EnicAZ]

I agree gtbuy,

Trying to make something positive happen is what we are trying to do. Even though home prices are going to fall to where they will, it is still important to focus energy on things we can control. Whenver we reach the bottom, hopefully there will be a few more jobs available at that time.

[hart4july]

Here's a question, if one buys at a time which is acknowledged or believed to be "the Bottom", will the available properties be less desirable? Especially if you are unable/willing to purchase a short sale or foreclosure?
I realize this is a loaded question, as one could get a higher value home for less. But wouldn't traditional sales be limited due to owners refusal to sell at "the bottom".

I have been browsing houses in this area for a few years and it seems that perhaps the most well cared for older homes(pre 1995) are seldom seen. Are people holding onto their desirable homes? Val Vista Lakes for example. A few years ago I saw a # of nice 4 bd homes there, now very little.

Hell No I won't Sell... could be a popular motto.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by hart4july

Here's a question, if one buys at a time which is acknowledged or believed to be "the Bottom", will the available properties be less desirable? Especially if you are unable/willing to purchase a short sale or foreclosure?
I realize this is a loaded question, as one could get a higher value home for less. But wouldn't traditional sales be limited due to owners refusal to sell at "the bottom".

I have been browsing houses in this area for a few years and it seems that perhaps the most well cared for older homes(pre 1995) are seldom seen. Are people holding onto their desirable homes? Val Vista Lakes for example. A few years ago I saw a # of nice 4 bd homes there, now very little.

Hell No I won't Sell... could be a popular motto.

The grand assumption that "everyone" is in foreclosure or will be "any second now" makes for great TeeVee, but it isn't the truth. Over 30% of the population doesn't have a mortgage, and that number may be increasing, since many of the properties sold over the past couple years were purchased without a mortgage - and others were purchased by those who actually planned to live in them, not trade them like baseball cards.

Zillow might say my house is worth $XXX, but it isn't for sale, and it won't be until I'm done with it. My subdivision was built in the late 80's, and in that time there have been several "booms" and "busts" in Phoenix - this most recent "boom" might have been the biggest, but many people in my neighborhood bought these properties new, and didn't sell even in the face of nearly 400% overall "appreciation".

There's also quite alot of monkey-business going on in the RE trade right now - I've seen properties pop in MLS as a short-sale for an awesome price, then go "pending" three minutes later! The comments were along the lines of "Solid Buyer in place, don't bother us with offers"... Checking back a couple of months later, the agent is quietly added to the deed...

FWIW, I reported a couple of these to the FBI's "task force" and never even got a response - in Arizona, if you steal a six-pack from a Circle-K you'll get a trip to tent-city... But if you rob a bank with a pen you'll retire young.