Phoenix MLS Predicting Lowest Median September Price in Nine Years (comparable sales, short)

[EnicAZ]

Hi Ritchie,

I don't know where rjrcm got his information from. But if you needed to know, the average sales price in the Phoenix area dropped $11,432 from August to September.

[Ritchie_az]

I don't know where rjrcm got his information from.

He posted some ARMLS graphs. Maybe he'll post them again....

[Ritchie_az]

But if you needed to know, the average sales price in the Phoenix area dropped $11,432 from August to September.

That doesn't necessarily mean anything (although it could, if true).
If a couple less million dollar homes sold in Septemeber (which is not even half over) than August, and few 3/4-million dollar homes, plus a handful of half-a-million dollar homes, that could effect the "average sale".

[EnicAZ]

I would like to think the same, but the price drops were not because of this. It was an across the board drop in everyone's home values. September's numbers look to be continuing the same downward trend.

[rjrcm]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Hi Ritchie,

I don't know where rjrcm got his information from. But if you needed to know, the average sales price in the Phoenix area dropped $11,432 from August to September.

Ritchie is probably referring to my post on the last ARMLS Pending Price Index report here:

https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...l#post15661639

The PPI indicated the average price declining through October, and a sharp uptick in September. Median prices are remaining fairly flat.

[EnicAZ]

Ok. I have the data the Cromford Report uses, with July average price at $176,353, and August average price at $164,921.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by EnicAZ

Ok. I have the data the Cromford Report uses, with July average price at $176,353, and August average price at $164,921.

Does anybody know what the prevous "bottom" average pricing?? I'm assuming April of 2009 would be the month to look at.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

I just got my answe from The Cromford Report

Average Price - $155,865 record low 4/6/09

Median Price - Monthly Sales $115,050 record low4/21/09

We are still $9K above the lowest point on the average price (164.9K versus $155.8K). If we cross this point, the media will be all over it causing some people to wait on the sidelines for a couple of months. I predict late October or November might be a great time for me to buy. OR... It could continue to fall. I'm watching realizing I cannot time the bottom (but better than blindly buying).

[sh9730]

MN-

Since you have access to the Cromford data - (by the way I dont want you to get in trouble for publishing something you shouldnt) - what are the sales NUMBERS month over month etc...the ARMLS stuff will come out this week, but not til Wednesday.

I am curious as to with the recent month over month drop in prices whether sales ACTIVITY is picking back up at all after the initial pullback right after the tax credit expiration. Because if as the prices come back down again, sales activity picks back UP, that could be a good sign of a bottom forming.

Thanks.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by sh9730

MN-

Since you have access to the Cromford data - (by the way I dont want you to get in trouble for publishing something you shouldnt) - what are the sales NUMBERS month over month etc...the ARMLS stuff will come out this week, but not til Wednesday.

I am curious as to with the recent month over month drop in prices whether sales ACTIVITY is picking back up at all after the initial pullback right after the tax credit expiration. Because if as the prices come back down again, sales activity picks back UP, that could be a good sign of a bottom forming.

Thanks.

I don't subscribe. I just copied the data from their website which is "free" (supplied link). Some agents put the Cromford summary page on their site. That's how I have been getting the data (via google and looking for agents that might have posted stats). I did a copy / paste on that summary three pages back.

Saying that. If you go back three pages (page 47) I posted a page of August summaries. It showed listing are up in August by a 1000, pending listings were down by 800 (an overall wash).

In another link that I posted inventory listings went up 5%. Honestly, I don't get why the panic. Now I read the words everywhere saying the sky is falling. But when I look at the data it doesn't track to have THAT much decline two or three months in a row. It's why I think October / November MIGHT just be my time to buy. I'll negotiate hard with the banks and see what sticks. Statistically last month sales were 95% of asking price. If I can get 90%-95% of asking price that I already felt was a good deal, I think I would be in great shape. For me, the key is to buy when there isn't a line of 4 other bidders to get what I really want. When I dial down key features (larger lot, newer build, >2000 sq foot, fireplace, etc) my potential list drops hard. Logic told me to stay away from that 4 person in line bidding approach from last Jan - April.

BUT. the sales are not as hot even though the prices are dropping. So potentially if the prices held, the sales would really drop. I don't know. Maybe an agent who is on the street can answer this question for the forum.