Would you buy now - Gilbert (Phoenix, Scottsdale: appointed, real estate market, rent)

[Boatdrinks]

Originally Posted by cade-liam

Just curious...why are you moving back? Why Gilbert? We are considering a move to Az also and are kicking around Gilbert or Ahwatukee. I'm scared about making the move because we have 2 kids. I'm the one who wants to move due to better weather. Should we be scared?

Gilbert is a great place to live, especially with kids. It's very family-friendly. 'Tuke's nice too, but much more crowded and congested, IMO. There's a big difference in commute time to Phoenix between the two places. I'd consider that in your decision.

[Boatdrinks]

No one said you need "housedebtorship" to live. If you like renting and throwing your money out the window without any return, more power to you.

As well, not all homes are a "declining asset." If you're smart when you buy and pick a good location/house/lot, you will more then likely be fine over the long term. Real estate, in this market, is a long term investment.

And yes, actually, those tax breaks are "amazing." How much money did you save on your taxes renting last year???? And how much equity do you have now????

As for waiting for another year - I completely disagree. Yes, it may pay off, but it also might not. Unless you have some magical crystal ball that tells you for sure that buying a home now will cost more then waiting a year and renting during that period, you're wrong.

Oh, and as far as an $800 rental house - I would imagine that it's extremely small, doesn't have a pool and probably not a very large backyard. If that works for you, fine. But it definitely would NOT work for people with a few kids, especially for the long term.

Most people wanting to buy a house now are looking for a HOME - a place to settle, make neighborhood friends, paint walls and make home improvements if they want to, swim and play in their backyards, and live there for years. For those people, renting for a year while they wait to see what happens is usually not their ideal situation.

Originally Posted by azjack

FALSE. Buying a declining asset is the wrong choice. Renting a house so that you can live in it is a fine use of money. How is paying a bank interest better than paying rent? Oh, those amazing tax breaks. Send the bank 20 grand to avoid sending Washington 6 grand. Excellent strategy. I think that I will stick with my $800 rental house for a few more years. Hopefully, Bernanke will not destroy all of my savings' value in the meantime.



Yes, it is a terrible existence not owning a rapidly declining stucco asset. Since I sold my house at the 2005 peak, it has been an awful existence having ample savings and renting for pennies on the dollar. Why exactly do you equate massive mortgage debt with stability?



One can live life without housedebtorship. In order to actually produce a sale, I have seen several bank-owned houses sell in 2007 for more than 30% below the 2005 peak. The A.R.M. re-sets have yet to peak, and price declines will continue for years in metro Phoenix and elsewhere. THERE ARE NO "great deals to be had now." There are only falling knives that are very dangerous to catch. You can save money and heartache by waiting to buy a house in Arizona for at LEAST another year. Remember, those loose lending standards that fueled the price spikes are not returning. Therefore, prices will fully revert back to their historical norms. Actually, prices will likely drop below historical norms for the remainder of this recession.

[MotleyCrew]

Maricopa had a peak?

[sheena]

My bother in-law wishes he waited a year, he's taking it in the shorts right now. Stuck with a house worth 100,000 less. Ouch!

[exlexisnexis]

I am a realtor and can tell you that their are some fantastic deals available right now,it is always a good time to buy if you get the right deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I recently helped someone pick up a horse property in an area that is exploding at a 33% discount. They were very happy campers because they got the right deal for themselves.

[nikorock28]

Originally Posted by exlexisnexis

I am a realtor and can tell you that their are some fantastic deals available right now,it is always a good time to buy if you get the right deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I recently helped someone pick up a horse property in an area that is exploding at a 33% discount. They were very happy campers because they got the right deal for themselves.

I agree and disagree. While the prices in some places are much lower than they were a short time ago, I think you can only use the label "fantastic" in hindsight. I could have bought an inventory home two months ago for $150K, which would have been a "fantastic" deal compared to what homes in the area sold for a couple yrs ago. However, the home still has not sold and has since dropped to $130K. Is that a fantastic price? Who knows. A good price? Absolutely, but not in comparison to home prices before the boom. The best price? Only the future will tell :P .

[sheena]

Originally Posted by exlexisnexis

I am a realtor and can tell you that their are some fantastic deals available right now,it is always a good time to buy if you get the right deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I recently helped someone pick up a horse property in an area that is exploding at a 33% discount. They were very happy campers because they got the right deal for themselves.

My buyers thought they got a great deal on my house back in Feb. I personally wouldn't suggest anyone buy a house if they are not familiar with desert living. If you end up hating Phoenix and want to move you may be stuck for awhile. It's different for people that have lived in the Valley for years and know they will be sticking around.

[RetiredCop]

I also want to move to Az...Scottsdale to be exact. I recently got my pre-approval and a market analysis of the scottsdale area. In sum and substance my mortgage planner told me to wait at least another six months possibly another year. I do have some figures he prepared for me and I will try and post a summary of everything he went over with me tomorrow. The writing is on the walls that prices will plummet to possible 2002 or even lower levels in Scottsdale. Currently Arizona has a 17 1/2 month surplus of home which will rise to over 24 months by the END of this year. Arizona once again was in the top 5 states with the most foreclosures. Arizona is now only starting to feel the effects of the subprime loans which were written in 2004. More of these bogus loans were written in 2005 and 2006. It is only going to get worse. It is correcting the same way the market corrected in 2002-2006. Unless someone steps in and does something about the sub-prime loans that were written the past few year and are ready to balloon we are due for a huge surplus of homes.

Now if you are buying for a long term investment and can afford you're monthly payment go for it. Do not be discouraged if you buy a home in the next few months and actually loses value.

[WASHINGTON DC HOME SELLER]

Based on reading the responses as to whether to buy or not, America is seriously in trouble. It scares me to think that we have become so naive that MOST AMERICAN'S cannot tell the difference between MARKET FUNDAMENTALS and CREDIT EXPANSION.

What is even more hilarious is that the same Credit Expansion Game was used to inflate the stock market 5-6 years ago. The end result, AMERICAN'S bought stock in companies valued in the billions of dollars and NOT GENERATING A DIME IN REVENUES. In turn, 7 trillion dollars of common America’s wealth had vanished. Saving, pensions and retirement wiped out.

IF YOU LISTEN TO THE STOCK AND REAL ESTATE EXPERTS MILLIONS OF SUCKERS WILL BE BORN EVERY MINUTE!!

The good thing is that I am a hedge fund investor and I have made a mint on the backs of American's who believed the STOCK and HOUSING MARKET ILLUSION.

I knew American's were going to believe the STOCK MARKET ILLUSION so I bought stock in DOT-COM companies during the earlier phase of the STOCK CREDIT game. I dumped all DOT-COM stocks in 2001/2002 and made a fortune.

I did the same with the HOUSING CREDIT game. I bought houses during the earlier phase of the game; I flipped hundreds of properties throughout America and bought stock in companies like Ryan Homes, Toll Brothers, Countrywide Mortgage, Wells Fargo Bank Ameriquest, etc.

During the third phase of the game 2005, I dumped all housing related stock and all properties that I owned. During the latter part of 2005 I started buying hedges against the very same stocks that I owned earlier.

I have enjoyed the carnage, housing stocks tanking, Americans loosing homes, banks, real estate and mortgage companies going under.

So as a cold carnal global investor don't buy a house buy hedges against the housing and housing retail industry. You can still make a little money even though you are coming late into the game.

And for all the common Americans who want to buy a house to live in, PLEASE DO NOT BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW!!!! When will be a good time? When you will only be able to buy a house based on INCOME and not CREDIT!!!!

Do you remember the old HOUSING INCOME FORMULA? THREE TIMES YOUR INCOME AND 20% DOWN!!!

Since house prices had increased all throughout America between 20 to 125% based on CREDIT and not INCOME, prices will have to decrease by 20 to 125% in order for INCOME FUNDAMENTALS TO REIGN!

Oh, by the way this HOUSING CREDIT BOOM HAS MASKED THE LARGEST OUTSOURICING OF AMERICAN JOBS IN THIS NATION'S HISTORY. AMERICA’S MIDDLECLASS HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUTTED.

TO SEE THE GUTTING OF MIDDLECLASS AMERICA DO A SEARCH ON COUNTRYWIDE MORTGAGE REO'S. BY THE WAY COUNTRYWIDE MORTGAGE IS THE LARGEST MORTGAGE COMPANY IN THE NATION.

CLICK ON THE LINK AND SEARCH REO PROPERTIES IN OHIO, MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN AND IT WILL SCARE YOU! HOMES ARE BEING TAKEN OVER BY THE BANK (CANT EVEN BE SOLD AS A FORECLOSURE) WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF HOUSING VALUED WAY UNDER 100,000.00 ONE MIGHT ASK WHAT IS GOING ON.

THE ANSWER IS AMERICAN’S COULD NOT PAY THEIR MORTGAGE BECAUSE THERE ARE NO JOBS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RetiredCop]

Great Post Washington. Yet there are RE agents still telling home buyers we have hit the bottom. Guess what...we are still over a year away from hitting the bottom.