Would you buy now - Gilbert (Phoenix, Peoria: loan, house, to buy)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by steve22

Bill, you bring up very valid and important points regarding the types of unscrupulous and uneducated types who jumped on the real estate bandwagon, just as they did previously during the dot-com boom, et cetera. Throughout history, whenever there appears to be a get-rich-quick opportunity to be had, the low-lifes and sleazebags come crawling out of the woodwork looking to get a piece of the lucrative racket du jour.

The worst fallout from this scenario, mortgage scams, can really cause incredible damage and bottom out a market completely. Thankfully, this hasn't really hit Phoenix or most other places too noticeably yet- but who knows, it might. What's happening now in metro Detroit, for instance, is just horribly tragic. Read this article, and hope to God this stuff doesn't become more of a widespread phenomenon.

Fraud deepens Michigan housing crisis (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071128/BIZ01/711280402 - broken link)

Detroit has been going down hill for a long time. I grew up there from the age of 10, and when I was 19 applied for a job as a real estate agent. It was explained to me that my job would be to go knock on doors to get listings by telling the owners that a black family was moving into the neighborhood in the next block. They told me that I could make a lot of money doing this because most of the people would list their home when they heard the story.

It was a big racket. It's called blockbusting and has been illegal for many years. I grew up without any predjudices and had some really great black friends in school. What this broker told me turned my stomach. They were hurting both races.

The whites were afraid that their property values would go down and would sell out. The blacks thought they were moving into an integrated neighborhood and their property values would increase.

There was no way that I could take part in that type of scheme so I told the broker I didn't want to take part in that type of business. That was a looong time ago.

Bill

[azjack]

"Actually, Tempe and Gilbert seem to be holding there ground pretty darn well. Some areas of Phx are doing well too."

I have followed this subject extensively for years, and that is simply not true. The inventories in Pinal, etc. are so vast, that those areas' builders and sellers have no choice but to severely mark down their inventory now. It is a natural progression to the more established areas, which is well underway. Hint, when a subdivision with 50 houses for sale, has zero, one , or two transactions in the last month, it inevitably faces price markdowns. The marketplace demands it, and it is all playing out exactly as the folks here and here correctly predicted.

"doing well" "holding their ground". . . nope, when the R.T.C. version 2.0 gets called in, all of Arizona will be in the same boat.

[steve22]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

Detroit has been going down hill for a long time. I grew up there from the age of 10, and when I was 19 applied for a job as a real estate agent. It was explained to me that my job would be to go knock on doors to get listings by telling the owners that a black family was moving into the neighborhood in the next block. They told me that I could make a lot of money doing this because most of the people would list their home when they heard the story.

It was a big racket. It's called blockbusting and has been illegal for many years. I grew up without any predjudices and had some really great black friends in school. What this broker told me turned my stomach. They were hurting both races.

The whites were afraid that their property values would go down and would sell out. The blacks thought they were moving into an integrated neighborhood and their property values would increase.

There was no way that I could take part in that type of scheme so I told the broker I didn't want to take part in that type of business. That was a looong time ago.

Bill

Detroit is still statistically the most segregated city in this country. I believe that about 90% of the population within the actual city limits itself is black. Then if you cross one small street to the north (Alter Road, I believe), which forms the boundary between Grosse Pointe and Detroit proper, it's about 95% white. It's incredibly sad.

[SMG]

I lived there for about 20 years. If for no other reason, the roads would make me leave.
let alone the violence, cold weather. economy....any one of those factors would drive me out. Combine them and you have one hell hole.

[burn2learn]

Just an update since I started this thread. I'm now in AZ and in progress of buying a new build home in Seville. Its great to be back.

The view of the market from just looking in the internet from VA was much worse than what it "feels" like being here. I expected rows of houses for sell and this is not the case. Gilbert feels like its growing and commerical investment is coming. A few resales I did look at were short sales and are now foreclosed I think. Some of the builders are offering good incentives. I think most of these are over inflated...save 120000 in incentives but 50,000 is an overpriced lot premium and the rest questionable option prices.

[Boatdrinks]

Originally Posted by burn2learn

Just an update since I started this thread. I'm now in AZ and in progress of buying a new build home in Seville. Its great to be back.

The view of the market from just looking in the internet from VA was much worse than what it "feels" like being here. I expected rows of houses for sell and this is not the case. Gilbert feels like its growing and commerical investment is coming. A few resales I did look at were short sales and are now foreclosed I think. Some of the builders are offering good incentives. I think most of these are over inflated...save 120000 in incentives but 50,000 is an overpriced lot premium and the rest questionable option prices.

Would you believe that 2 yrs ago, those lots backing to the golf course at Seville had 100K lot premiums???? And they had people lining up for them!! People needing to sell those homes now are SOOOOOOOO screwed. I heard that Shea was STILL charging pretty high lot premiums on those golf course lots. At any rate, Seville is a beautiful community. It's close to the new mall and, you're right, there's lots of commercial going in. They're planning to build a large shopping center on Riggs and Higley where that big dairy farm is (similar to the Super Target center on Gilbert and the 202). And of course they've got commercial going in on most of the other corners too. Also, if you have kids, I hear that elementary school is good.

Best of luck with your move! We moved here from VA too. I miss lots about the DC area and the east coast, but this area is great too.

[Bob's Burgers]

Originally Posted by sonarsound

Would you buy now - Gilbert

I know what I am saying:
DON'T BUY NOW - WAIT TILL 2008 2nd -or 3rd quarter - houses are going down!!! in end 2008 beginning 2009 - builders have to get rid of the 40000 houses empty in phoenix. they will reduce the price by 40 %.

You were right on !!!

[blisterpeanuts]

Originally Posted by sonarsound

Would you buy now - Gilbert

I know what I am saying:
DON'T BUY NOW - WAIT TILL 2008 2nd -or 3rd quarter - houses are going down!!! in end 2008 beginning 2009 - builders have to get rid of the 40000 houses empty in phoenix. they will reduce the price by 40 %.

Originally Posted by slowbill

You were right on !!!

My house has gone down at least 30%
but I'm not moving any time soon.

[sheena]

Oh he was right on. I'm glad I didn't tell anyone to buy

[markas214]

Originally Posted by SMG

I agree Motley. I really take exception to the soothsayers that know exactly how much the market will drop, which quarter it will happen, etc. the OP is talking about moving here and buying a home and the Bozo that I referred to earlier knows allabout what is going to happen and sees fit to make recommendations to the guy.
That is realkly wreckless. People guess and speculate, but when they pretend to know more than they do they need to be called out on it.
The bottom line is that nobody knows.

Wow Bozo was spot on. Who's the clown now? The replies on the first page were so dead wrong. I hope people did some research and ignored the self interest of the posts from 2007 saying the market would remain stable.