Analyzing the Mayoral primary results (Pittsburgh, Crafton: new home, neighborhood, construction)

[SteelCityRising]

Polish Hill surprised me. While half the neighborhood went for Peduto and half went for Wagner, the half that was dominated by Wagner yard signs (my half) actually went for Peduto while the other half, which didn't have many signs at all, went for Wagner. My half seems to be renter-dominated (younger) while the Melwood side of the neighborhood seems to be owner-dominated (more mature). This could perhaps mean that citywide more homeowners went for Wagner while more renters went for Peduto.

As others have said Wagner made ZERO effort to reach out to we youngsters, and his crushing defeat shows that. I read an article that said 25% of all votes came from Shadyside, Squirrel Hill, and Highland Park combined, and those three neighborhoods were dominated by Peduto. With how the city's population percentages have shifted towards the East End since 2000 I don't think a candidate can secure victory citywide while losing the East End anymore. I mean, Wagner won just about all of the South Hills and everything south of the Monongahela (save for South Side Flats), and he still wasn't even close to beating Peduto. Even here in Polish Hill, which is home to many blue-collar unionized city employees (supposedly Wagner's "bread and butter"), Peduto did well overall.

Wagner's campaign seemed lazy. It seemed like Peduto "wanted" to win more.

[markson33]

That map is very interesting, and shows a clear delineation between the "white collar" democrats and the "blue collar" democrats. With the exception of Lawrenceville and Mt. Washington, all of the "progressive" neighborhoods of the city voted for Peduto, and all of the "old school" neighborhoods voted for Wagner. It is interesting to me that Wagner won Lawrencville, which I would have thought would fall in line with the other East End neighborhoods.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by markson33

That map is very interesting, and shows a clear delineation between the "white collar" democrats and the "blue collar" democrats. With the exception of Lawrenceville and Mt. Washington, all of the "progressive" neighborhoods of the city voted for Peduto, and all of the "old school" neighborhoods voted for Wagner. It is interesting to me that Wagner won Lawrencville, which I would have thought would fall in line with the other East End neighborhoods.

Peduto won most of Lawrenceville - usually with around 50%-60% in each precinct. The only exception is a tiny bit on the slope in Central Lawrenceville, between Service Way and 46th street. It looks much larger on the map because Allegheny Cemetery is also in the precinct. Even here, I don't think Wagner broke 50%.

Pedyto won over half of the Mount Washington precincts, and may have won the neighborhood as a whole. As with elsewhere, he won the more white-collar portions, along with the portions with a higher black population.

I'm actually a lot more surprised that Peduto won Stanton Heights than anything. I'd think it would be natural Wagner country, since it's so similar to much of Pittsburgh south of the Mon.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by markson33

That map is very interesting, and shows a clear delineation between the "white collar" democrats and the "blue collar" democrats. With the exception of Lawrenceville and Mt. Washington, all of the "progressive" neighborhoods of the city voted for Peduto, and all of the "old school" neighborhoods voted for Wagner. It is interesting to me that Wagner won Lawrencville, which I would have thought would fall in line with the other East End neighborhoods.

Lawrenceville shocked me too. You'd think it was overrun by the "progressive" hipsters you see lining Butler Street, but I suppose they voted in fewer numbers than the aging homesteaders who were allied with Wagner.

[AaronPGH]

Originally Posted by I_Like_Spam

Apparently, even though Mr. Wagner was just about as liberal as Mr. Peduto on nearly every issue, and attached himself to all of the progressive red-meat issues like abortion and gay marriage , he looked too much like a social conservative and got crushed.

That's because for a long time he wasn't super progressive on a lot of these social issues. It was only until he was forced to come around that he did, and even then his replies (especially on abortion) were weak sounding. "I wouldn't stop it", etc. He wasn't authentic. Peduto was. Young people don't want someone that waffles on these issues. They will always vote for the person who was all about it from the beginning.

I will vote for a guy that says "Hey, I've evolved" if I need to, but if there's a better alternative that can actually win my vote will always go to that person.

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by AaronPGH

Young people don't want someone that waffles on these issues. They will always vote for the person who was all about it from the beginning.

Sure, but what younger, progressive voters want doesn't explain why Wagner lost. That's who was biggest for Peduto, but there aren't enough of them to determine the outcome. The article I have below is old, but things have not changed that much. Pittsburgh voters are old. I think at Null Space, Chris Briem said that he considers those under 60 to be "young."

Wagner was never going to out-progressive Peduto. What I can figure out is why he couldn't even get more older voters to the polls.

Older voters reign at polls - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

[AaronPGH]

I realize that history shows older voters far outnumber younger ones in this type of an election. But I can't shake the feeling that this year may have been different. Are there age breakdowns yet of who came out to vote on Tuesday?

To your point about older people going for Peduto - maybe the whole Ravenstahl corruption + backing of Wagner really soured them? I feel like that's the only thing it could have been.

[bradjl2009]

The Post Gazette has a cool interactive map that shows how every single precinct in the city voted for mayor.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette interactive: How Bill Peduto won the election with just 23,000 votes

I was surprised to see Peduto won here in Upper Lawrenceville and at my polling place with 52% of the vote. I thought this area would have gone to Wagner because it's more of "blue collar" and more of the old than new Lawrenceville. I always love reading online comments too of people who plan to move out because they're mad their guy didn't win and the new mayor will "ruin the city", etc.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I was surprised to see Peduto won here in Upper Lawrenceville and at my polling place with 52% of the vote. I thought this area would have gone to Wagner because it's more of "blue collar" and more of the old than new Lawrenceville. I always love reading online comments too of people who plan to move out because they're mad their guy didn't win and the new mayor will "ruin the city", etc.

Peduto seems to have had a better spread versus Wagner among black voters than blue-collar white voters, which probably made a difference in Upper Lawrenceville. The margins there were a bit closer than most of Central/Lower Lawrenceville anyway.

I see looking at precincts the places Peduto won in the outer North Side were mostly by 1-5 votes - which tends to lean towards the hypothesis I had that black voters made the difference which had him "win" these areas. Not that it would have affected the spread much though.

[Mr. Mon]

From talking to a neighbor who worked on previous campaigns the word out there is that Peduto people knew very early on what precincts they were going to handily win, which ones to write off, and which ones to target due to changing demographics. It came down to running major ground game in Stanton Heights, Morningside, Greenfield and the South Side, and turning up the AA vote in Homewood. Peduto's been unofficially running for Mayor for years, his people knew exactly who they needed to target and it paid off.

Wagner got in too late and didn't reach out to those possibly-undecided voters that Peduto was targeting (the middle class, younger families and transplants) with solid policy stances. You have to go deeper than being a good guy and a vet now that party endorsement doesn't mean much and name recognition doesn't resonate with new-comers, especially when the election is decided by such a small number of voters.