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There is no exodus from the Democratic party. The country is always in flux with some areas becoming more Democratic and some becoming more Republican. Traditional white blue collar areas, and the deep south have been trending Republican for years while suburbs have been trending Democratic. It is a long term thing and to just look at 7 people in Mississippi is like trying to imagine what a 5,000 piece jigsaw puzzle looks like from taking one random piece out of the pile. It pure malarkey.
No, but as I said you are looking at one piece of a jigsaw puzzle and trying to make sense of it based on only that one piece. As Smash already explained to you there is a spike in voter registration and switches when you have an interesting primary. That is because when something gets the kind of news coverage like a competitive presidential primary does it gets people wanting to have a say in it. The 2008 primary was competitive for Dems in PA 2012 primary was very close to being a competitive GOP primary. That is going to draw switches and new registrations because people want to take part.
Heck I almost considered switching to Repub. to vote in the primary when Gingrich was giving Romney a run for his money, because at the time there was nothing to vote on in the Dem primary and I though Gingrich would have made for a more interesting election with a clear battle of ideas.
1. No, I'm not even talking about the cities themselves. I'm talking about the suburban areas, specifically well educated middle and upper middle class suburban areas.
2. Not really. PA use to be a GOP leaning state. The cities have stayed Democratic, the central portion of the state has remained very Republican. The GOP has picked up a ton of ground in the traditional Dem portions of western PA (outside of metro Pittsburgh). Meanwhile, the Dems have picked up a ton of ground in suburban Philly. Suburban Philly outvotes rural western portions of the state, hence the move from lean GOP to lean Dem.
Similar thing in VA. The SW portion of the state was traditionally Democratic, most of NOVA (outside of Arlington and Alexandria) were traditionally GOP. Both areas have swung the other way. NOVA outvotes SW VA hence the shift.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest
Pittsburgh, which tends to vote Democratic on a local basis, has been moving more and more towards voting GOP on a nationa, and even countywide basis. In 1996 (I believe that was the year) they elected the first GOP member for a countwide seat in nearly 50+ years, but Philly was always known to be Democratic. In the same manner you asked if its better to win people in heavily titled areas, or swing areas, apply this to Philadelphia. Using your own standards, Philly moving more Democratic is meaningless since they've always been Democratic, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent
No. A lot of Philadelphia areas counties like Bucks, Chester, Montgomery and Delaware have been swing to Republican. Now they are fairly Democratic at least in POTUS elections.
This is not about Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is a city/county where Republicans only account for 17% of all the registered voters ... the rest are Democrats.
What is being discussed here is the shift of formally GOP-controlled counties such as Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and even (to lesser extent) Northampton and Lehigh to Democratic majorities. Some of these counties have had Republican majorities for over 100 years and have shifted away from the GOP in the last few years.
No, but as I said you are looking at one piece of a jigsaw puzzle and trying to make sense of it based on only that one piece. As Smash already explained to you there is a spike in voter registration and switches when you have an interesting primary. That is because when something gets the kind of news coverage like a competitive presidential primary does it gets people wanting to have a say in it. The 2008 primary was competitive for Dems in PA 2012 primary was very close to being a competitive GOP primary. That is going to draw switches and new registrations because people want to take part.
Heck I almost considered switching to Repub. to vote in the primary when Gingrich was giving Romney a run for his money, because at the time there was nothing to vote on in the Dem primary and I though Gingrich would have made for a more interesting election with a clear battle of ideas.
So you can point to me where the people are then registering back to being a Democrat ?
Philadelphia is a city/county where Republicans only account for 17% of all the registered voters ... the rest are Democrats.
What is being discussed here is the shift of formally GOP-controlled counties such as Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and even (to lesser extent) Northampton and Lehigh to Democratic majorities. Some of these counties have had Republican majorities for over 100 years and have shifted away from the GOP in the last few years.
Actually thats not the discussion either. The thread deals with people who are leaving the Democratic Party, to join the GOP..
You had it completely backwards
05-31-2012, 09:08 PM
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n/a posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal
Those Democrats who are pro-life and believe that marriage is between one man and one women no longer have a place at the DNC's table.
Yes, they're so against pro-lifers that they made a pro-life Mormon president of the senate.
You showed a link with the registration changes right before a Primary where it was competitive on one side and not competitive on the other. And the changes you showed were somewhere in the range of .1%.
Registration doesn't always mean everything, look at Kentucky or West Virginia, look at the Dem registration advantages in western PA, or some of the GOP registration advantages in eastern PA. Both McCain and Obama won counties in which the other side had a registration advantage in some cases by 20 points.
Anyway compared to Nov 08, registration statewide has gotten more Republican, with the largest differences in western PA with Registered Democrats that no longer voted that way. Meanwhile registration in suburban Philly shifted more Democratic.
You showed a link with the registration changes right before a Primary where it was competitive on one side and not competitive on the other. And the changes you showed were somewhere in the range of .1%.
Registration doesn't always mean everything, look at Kentucky or West Virginia, look at the Dem registration advantages in western PA, or some of the GOP registration advantages in eastern PA. Both McCain and Obama won counties in which the other side had a registration advantage in some cases by 20 points.
Anyway compared to Nov 08, registration statewide has gotten more Republican, with the largest differences in western PA with Registered Democrats that no longer voted that way. Meanwhile registration in suburban Philly shifted more Democratic.
ok, so validate your point by showing me how people are now reigstering as a Democrat overwelmingly rather than Republican.
So you can point to me where the people are then registering back to being a Democrat ?
As I said in my first post. Just look at Mecklenburg county NC which is Charlotte and Suburbs. (I know NC better then I do any other state.)
At the end of 2010 there were 276,000(D) and 172,000(R) There were Now there are 284,000(D) and 174,000(R) Democrats are out-registering Republicans there by about 4:1.
ok, so validate your point by showing me how people are now reigstering as a Democrat overwelmingly rather than Republican.
Neither one is happening, although the Dems did increase there voter registration edge in Montco by 12,000 since Nov 08.
Anyway point being you were talking about jumps right before a competitive Primary, and a very minute jump at that. A net gain of about 1,000 voters doesn't mean much in a county of 450k voters, (Bucks), a gain of about 450 doesn't exactly mean much with 530k voters.
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