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Why did you cherry pick 20 yrs? The SB has been around for 50 yrs....in that time, you have had guys like Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Jim Plunkett (twice), Eli Manning (twice), a subpar Peyton Manning. Ben Roethlisberger who was downright brutal in his first SB. No one is saying that a gifted QB doesn't greatly increase your chance, but it isn't a necessity....perfect example is last year....the mantra still holds true....DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!! Exception to that has to be Brady. I don't know how he wins with a patchwork defense, no good RB and midget white guys as his receivers, but he does
I wouldn't call it cherry picking really. Ask yourself this, does it make more sense to predict future super bowl outcomes based on how the game was played and won 30,40 or 50 years ago or how it has been played since the turn of the century?
The game has evolved. There is no questioning that. The question is, have the changes made any kind of significant difference in who does or doesn't represent or win a super bowl?
Drew Brees is probably the closets that comes to mind. The defense stepped up that year, including the big pick six in the Super Bowl, but that was still a season that consisted a whole lot of Drew Brees making things happen for the Saints. Which has pretty much been the story since he arrived in New Orleans.
I agree with that....Bree's with the Saints, Manning with the Colts and Brady (multiple times) have literally carried their teams to a Championship. Most other times, it's the defense that has a direct result. Take GB for example. Rodgers is a great QB, likely HOFer. The only year he won a ring was when GB had the #2 overall defense in the league
QB wins, although cool.. are unofficial stats.. It does point out the obvious importance of a QB.. no one disputes a QBs value but i have seen more teams win Super Bowls with average QBs than I have seen Elite QBs win a Super Bowl with average teams...
Great point by MCO and my sentiments exactly!
It is like being clutch, or overtime wins, if the team doesn't get a stop from the defense and the QB never sees the field, how is it his fault. Some discussions you can have forever, with many, many opinions, not really any right or wrong. Much of it comes with over analyzing and the massive amount of statistics these days.
That's' true sometimes it's a situation where a QB may not get back on the field but there has also been times when a QB has hurt his team with fumbles or interceptions which gave the other team's offense extra chances to score more pts which is a QB like Andy Dalton or Tony Romo.
2015: Peyton Manning, below average and past his prime...
2013: Russell Wilson, game manager, average!
2012: Joe Flacco, very average...
2008: Ben Roethlisberger, very average...
2007: Eli Manning, below average...
2005: Ben Roethlisberger, game manager, average!
2003: Tom Brady, very average but showed growth that postseason...
2002: Brad Johnson, average...
2001: Tom Brady, game manager, average!
2000: Trent Dilfer, below average, come on, man...
This is just since I've been watching football ('99), and you have to look at this stuff individually by season, you have to. Only 7 of the last 17 Super Bowls were won by a quarterback having an elite OR above average year ('99 Warner, '04 Brady, '06 Peyton, '09 Brees, '10 Rodgers, '11 Eli, '14 Brady). So, yes, more teams win Super Bowls with average to subpar to even bad quarterback play, than teams with top shelf quarterback play win Super Bowls...
To your "HOF or future HOF QB" comment:
Tom Brady became a Famer, he wasn't always that way. He won two Super Bowls on the backs of superior coaching and defense before he broke out as an elite passer (2004). The argument will always exist about him vs Montana or even Peyton because those two were ALWAYS the guy, never considered "game managers" at any point of their careers until perhaps the very end...Brady is 2-2 as a superstar, and history would judge him a lot tougher if he was starting his career in rougher circumstances (lesser coaching, lesser surrounding talent)...
Ben Roethlisberger is a bubble Famer because of the two chips. He was NOT the catalyst for either of his championship teams. He really didn't have his breakthrough year until Year 7...
Eli Manning was never a great quarterback. He had two great postseason runs, has two rings, but I don't think he's going in The Hall, it will probably take him at least 4-5 tries if he does get in. His career will alter how quarterbacks are graded into The Hall, because he's the consensus worst player of his draft, and there are quarterbacks with less than two rings who aren't in yet that were/are better. Him winning those two Super Bowls are his only claim to fame...
Russell Wilson morphed late last year into an upper-echelon, Top 5 QB, and appears to be destined for greatness (his career arc actually resembles Brady's, but that's another thread). It remains to be seen whether he's a future HOFer, though, because he wasn't an elite QB when they won it all three year ago...
Depends on how you look at it, I disagree with pretty much everything you have written though and I've been watching football a lot longer than you....
Only 7 of last 17 SB's won by a QB having an "elite season"???
IMO only 3 of the last 17 Superbowls were won by QB's who weren't "elite", HOF, or likely HOFer. I also do not look just at that last game, the SB....it takes a lot to GET to the SB. Brady, P. Manning, E. Manning, Rothelisberger, Brees, Rogers, Wilson, Warner, Elway.....that's 15 SB victories right there by guys who are in HOF, going to HOF or "elite QB"s.....sure looks like it takes an elite QB to win a SB unless you happen to have an all time great defense a la 85 Bears, 01 Ravens, 03 Tampa or even last years Broncos considering that the Denver future HOF QB contributed little to that victory
Tom Brady "became a famer?" What does that even mean?? No one is BORN a HOFer, if you only look at statistics almost NO QB before 1985 was an ELITE PASSER.....there was a time when a 50% completion rate, 20TDs and 15 INTs was a damn good season...
Brady is HOF lock because he is the most clutch QB of all time, 4 rings and a slew of "elite season statistics" which many QB's of an earlier era could have also put up if they didn't ever get hit or their receivers couldn't be touched like today....as for being 2-2 in SB's as a 'superstar', more nonsense... Brady is 4-2 in Superbowls there is no line of demarcation indicating superstardom....Brady was supremely confident even as a 2nd year pro his first year starting his first SB....read a great article just recently with a Damon Huard interview, Brady's last words to Huard as they headed out to meet the Rams were "How great is it going to feel to be World Champions in 3 1/2 hours because we will be...."
What sets Brady apart is his post season play...and his ability to perform under pressure...not the stats
As for Montana and Manning always being "the guy"....nonsense....
Montana was drafted at the end of the 3rd round, 4 QB's taken ahead of him, many questioned his arm strength, size etc.... he was no sure lock HOFer, like Brady he became a HOF QB because of his post season success....how would his career have differed if not chosen by SF with a HOF coach and receivers like Rice? Who had better surrounding talent? Brady or Montana? I say Montana..... Brady has done more with less throughout his career..
Manning though a number 1 overall pick and consensus to be a top pro came with questions of his own, never won the big game at Tennessee and for the first 6 seasons of his NFL career still had that monkey on his back before FINALLY winning a big playoff game in his 7th season. Even with last years SB has a career losing record in the playoffs at 12-13 with more playoff losses and one and dones than any QB in history.
It's Manning's career playoff record and fewer rings that will always keep him behind Brady and Montana.
I'm going to ignore the comments on Big Ben because its just nonsense, he is isn't a "bubble HOFer" he is first ballot no doubt....didn't have his breakthrough until year 7??? WTF??
He was terrible in his first SB but he was terrific in the playoff games leading up to it including the AFC championship game, he was the 3rd leading passer in football by rating his second year in the league..
The Eli Manning comments are also ludicrous....consensus worst player in his draft??? What are you smoking?? He is a borderline candidate for HOF but even today I can think of a dozen teams that would rather have Eli as their QB than who they currently have behind center...and probably twice that many GM's would choose Eli in a must win playoff scenario
Hey personally I HATE the man, he cost my team 2 championships, but he was INCREDIBLY clutch in those games and that counts for more than stats in my book...
Finally Wilson, again he didn't MORPH into anything....like Brady, like Montana... Wilson has "IT" what the "IT" is that defines greatness...."it" was always there and he certainly played like an "elite QB" in both of his SB appearances and I expect he will have more...clearly an elite QB with a career trajectory pointing towards Canton barring injury or collapse
It is a team sport and if all 3 parts of a team are not playing well, doesn't matter who the QB is. I get very defensive when QBs are judged on SB wins, it is a team sport and wins are not a QB stat. Packers and Patriots have been to the playoffs for the last 7 seasons, both teams have great QBs but it isn't solely on them.
Not buying the QB skills theory. Yes, a franchise caliber QB is great but as an example, with all the injuries, defense is failing in GB and Rodgers is doing o.k. Fans and media complaining about Rodgers, his stats over the 4-game losing streak: 111/173 for 1,270 yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs. 102.0 passer rating. Defense allowed 153 points. QBs can only do so much.
i agree with this. how many great QBs have there been over the years on lousy teams? how about archie manning? he played for the saints many years ago, and i believe that if he had been on a team like say the steelers, or the cowboys, he would have taken those teams to a super bowl or two. or look at tony romo. he has the stats to be a top tier QB, but the defense often let the cowboys down in many games, and in other games it was his receivers that let him down, dropped passes etc.
with a team sport like football where everyone depends on everyone else doing their jobs, it is easy to blame the QB for problems of the rest of the team, mostly because the QB is the one everyone looks to.
Depends on how you look at it, I disagree with pretty much everything you have written though and I've been watching football a lot longer than you....
Only 7 of last 17 SB's won by a QB having an "elite season"???
IMO only 3 of the last 17 Superbowls were won by QB's who weren't "elite", HOF, or likely HOFer. I also do not look just at that last game, the SB....it takes a lot to GET to the SB. Brady, P. Manning, E. Manning, Rothelisberger, Brees, Rogers, Wilson, Warner, Elway.....that's 15 SB victories right there by guys who are in HOF, going to HOF or "elite QB"s.....sure looks like it takes an elite QB to win a SB unless you happen to have an all time great defense a la 85 Bears, 01 Ravens, 03 Tampa or even last years Broncos considering that the Denver future HOF QB contributed little to that victory
Tom Brady "became a famer?" What does that even mean?? No one is BORN a HOFer, if you only look at statistics almost NO QB before 1985 was an ELITE PASSER.....there was a time when a 50% completion rate, 20TDs and 15 INTs was a damn good season...
Brady is HOF lock because he is the most clutch QB of all time, 4 rings and a slew of "elite season statistics" which many QB's of an earlier era could have also put up if they didn't ever get hit or their receivers couldn't be touched like today....as for being 2-2 in SB's as a 'superstar', more nonsense... Brady is 4-2 in Superbowls there is no line of demarcation indicating superstardom....Brady was supremely confident even as a 2nd year pro his first year starting his first SB....read a great article just recently with a Damon Huard interview, Brady's last words to Huard as they headed out to meet the Rams were "How great is it going to feel to be World Champions in 3 1/2 hours because we will be...."
What sets Brady apart is his post season play...and his ability to perform under pressure...not the stats
As for Montana and Manning always being "the guy"....nonsense....
Montana was drafted at the end of the 3rd round, 4 QB's taken ahead of him, many questioned his arm strength, size etc.... he was no sure lock HOFer, like Brady he became a HOF QB because of his post season success....how would his career have differed if not chosen by SF with a HOF coach and receivers like Rice? Who had better surrounding talent? Brady or Montana? I say Montana..... Brady has done more with less throughout his career..
Manning though a number 1 overall pick and consensus to be a top pro came with questions of his own, never won the big game at Tennessee and for the first 6 seasons of his NFL career still had that monkey on his back before FINALLY winning a big playoff game in his 7th season. Even with last years SB has a career losing record in the playoffs at 12-13 with more playoff losses and one and dones than any QB in history.
It's Manning's career playoff record and fewer rings that will always keep him behind Brady and Montana.
I'm going to ignore the comments on Big Ben because its just nonsense, he is isn't a "bubble HOFer" he is first ballot no doubt....didn't have his breakthrough until year 7??? WTF??
He was terrible in his first SB but he was terrific in the playoff games leading up to it including the AFC championship game, he was the 3rd leading passer in football by rating his second year in the league..
The Eli Manning comments are also ludicrous....consensus worst player in his draft??? What are you smoking?? He is a borderline candidate for HOF but even today I can think of a dozen teams that would rather have Eli as their QB than who they currently have behind center...and probably twice that many GM's would choose Eli in a must win playoff scenario
Hey personally I HATE the man, he cost my team 2 championships, but he was INCREDIBLY clutch in those games and that counts for more than stats in my book...
Finally Wilson, again he didn't MORPH into anything....like Brady, like Montana... Wilson has "IT" what the "IT" is that defines greatness...."it" was always there and he certainly played like an "elite QB" in both of his SB appearances and I expect he will have more...clearly an elite QB with a career trajectory pointing towards Canton barring injury or collapse
We just view it two different ways. I look at a single year and can see whether the quarterback was the primary reason a team won it all, or if the team won it all in spite of the QB...
Otherwise, I only disagree with the following:
Ben Roethlisberger will make The Hall because he's 2-1 in Super Bowls and has a good postseason record, and he was an elite player for a time. I don't think there's a consensus that he's a shoo-in on the first ballot...
I typed wrong about Eli Manning, I didn't worst in the draft, I meant that he's the worst quarterback of his esteemed class. I don't anybody will argue that he's better than Ben or Rivers, it's not really arguable. He's more decorated than Rivers. But it's already been whispered about, Eli Manning is not a lock for The Hall. No QB with two Super Bowls has ever been left out, so I think he'll get in eventually, but evaluating his career is gonna change how quarterbacks are put in...
First of all, Eli has more rings and a better playoff record than most people, including Drew Brees--Brees is a first ballot lock, and Eli is not even close to the player Brees is. That's one example. Second of all, he's helped by having great postseason success, but a lesser regular season win percentage than some contemporaries who are clearly better players than him--Ben and Rivers for starters, Rodgers, Ryan, Romo. Third, on a comparison of skill sets, mitigating circumstances, coaching, etc, again he will take a hit compared to his peers...
So to vome back full circle to the OP, it helps Manning and his playoff record and championships are his calling card and the reason he'll get in....eventually. but Eli Manning is far from a first ballot lock...
I have no disagreeable with anything else you said!
We just view it two different ways. I look at a single year and can see whether the quarterback was the primary reason a team won it all, or if the team won it all in spite of the QB...
Otherwise, I only disagree with the following:
Ben Roethlisberger will make The Hall because he's 2-1 in Super Bowls and has a good postseason record, and he was an elite player for a time. I don't think there's a consensus that he's a shoo-in on the first ballot...
I typed wrong about Eli Manning, I didn't worst in the draft, I meant that he's the worst quarterback of his esteemed class. I don't anybody will argue that he's better than Ben or Rivers, it's not really arguable. He's more decorated than Rivers. But it's already been whispered about, Eli Manning is not a lock for The Hall. No QB with two Super Bowls has ever been left out, so I think he'll get in eventually, but evaluating his career is gonna change how quarterbacks are put in...
First of all, Eli has more rings and a better playoff record than most people, including Drew Brees--Brees is a first ballot lock, and Eli is not even close to the player Brees is. That's one example. Second of all, he's helped by having great postseason success, but a lesser regular season win percentage than some contemporaries who are clearly better players than him--Ben and Rivers for starters, Rodgers, Ryan, Romo. Third, on a comparison of skill sets, mitigating circumstances, coaching, etc, again he will take a hit compared to his peers...
So to vome back full circle to the OP, it helps Manning and his playoff record and championships are his calling card and the reason he'll get in....eventually. but Eli Manning is far from a first ballot lock...
I have no disagreeable with anything else you said!
I agree, I don't think a true 1st ballot hall of famer would start every game for 4 seasons and his team miss the playoffs
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