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I would never ever bet a horse to Place when the fave is 1-2! I wouldn’t bet the 1-2 fave OR any other horse! JMHO
I sometimes bet “chalks” but only at 4-5 and above - JMS (Just My Strategy)!
Travers (Justify) is still 6 weeks out - we’ll see. Or, maybe he’ll be ready for the Breeders. Or, maybe he’ll retire to stud - nice gig if you can get it! ROFLOL
I’ve been to the last 3 Travers and also to 2007 (Street Sense). Probably 1 or 2 more - I just don’t remember. Travers card is always great - 5-6 Stakes races.
If it finishes 3rd and you bet another horse you like to place in at least a 9 horse field, you cash big time!
While on that subject, I'm sure you heard the term "bridge jumpers," right? I posted an example awhile back. It was Arrogate's return from a 4 month layoff. The payoffs for Place and Show for the other horses was astronomical!
I love to bet against chalk, when possible. I've been around long enough to know they obviously win too.
Favorites lose approximately 67% of the time. But when talking 1-2 or thereabouts, obviously the chances of a win increase dramatically. But still...
Believe-it-or-not, I don’t go to the track to try and make $money! Of course I’d rather make $$ than lose $$. I usually only bet 4-5 maybe 6 races per day. I never bet maidens, I rarely bet even low level allowance races. I bet mainly Stakes races. I’m more interested in watching a good race and “guessing” who will win and don’t much care if my bet is a winner or a loser. I know, I know, I’m weird!
Sure, faves win 67% of the time. 1-9’s, 1-5’s even 2-5’s win more than 67% (obviously), as you said.
Case-in-point: Justify went off at 3-5 in the Belmont. I sat the race out. I coulda guessed who would come 2nd or 3rd, but, that’s not interesting to me. I’d rather just watch Justify essentially “win” the race in the 1st 50-100 yards as he got away clean by 2-3 lengths and coasted home.
I go to the track almost the same way as I go to a football or basketball game - I like these sports - I don’t bet on them.
Betting to Place is much like betting on how many points Lebron will score and not betting on the winner of the game.
There’s more to this, but, I don’t wanna post it on this public forum. Again, I’m new to this site - is there a way to email someone directly?
I felt Zenyatta would win the race and St. Trinians was the very best alternative. Why take St. Trinians to win? It was a big loser.
I've passed on less than even money favorites before and consider to try to beat the favorite with an exacta box or other exotic that includes the favorite.
If a favorite was 1-5 and the other 4 horses were 5-1 or higher, personally I would handicap those other 4. I might choose one to place or might not.
Sad news for horse racing but probably a good idea...
Excerpt:
Quote:
(Reuters) - Justify, the undefeated winner of U.S. thoroughbred racing's coveted Triple Crown this year, has been retired from racing, his connections announced on Wednesday.
The 3-year-old son of Scat Daddy won all of his six career starts, most notably the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to become only the second Triple Crown winner since 1978.
"Justify had some filling in his ankle, and he is just not responding quick enough for a fall campaign," said Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. "We all wanted to see Justify run again, but ultimately it is my responsibility to make sure he is perfect. Without 60-90 days, I can't be definite."
He's the only Triple Crown winner that retired undefeated if I read the details accurately.
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Other horses move up a little as far as the Breeder's Cup Classic. I still like Audible and the owners were quoted as saying they let Audible skip the Belmont because they thought Audible would beat Justify.
Looking at Hofburg in tomorrow's Curlin even though the horse has only won once.
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Justify Retired
