Irma! Are you prepared for this storm that seems to be heading out way! (Tampa: transport, stations)

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by BlakeJones

you keep talking about updated forecast but you're not posting any maps or reports

Too much trouble to post links and maps. Plus everyone else is. I go by own way of thinking. Anyone can see the eye going just south of due north into Cuba's north coast last nite. The more west it goes the Worst for the TAMPA AREA. With any luck it stays a 100+ miles offshore to our west. But it looks like a dead on hit for the Tampa area. At least coming up the coast at such a shallow angel will keep the worst of the surge down compared to coming in at us from the west.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by thefishes540

What forecast or scenario are you considering worst case?

Worst case would be looping out into the gulf and hooking and making landfall at a more west movement around Pasco county with a rapid building storm with gust to 150 to 200mph.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by kmarc

You mean this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...b-animated.gif

I'm OK with it not making any northward turns at this point. What pipe?

I just say coming up the pipe meaning right at us from the southwest to west and driving a 30ft + surge up the bay ray.

[BucFan]

Uh oh.....CNN weather guy says we'll get sustained 115 mph winds....."worst storm America has ever seen with so many people in the way".....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulClip3ZfIQ

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by kmarc

What ridge, where's that confounded ridge?

That high pressure ridge that is well to our north east is the driving factor for this storm norm. Another kink in the gulf is headed our way so think of it as a river the storm track takes and follows. If this kink does not dig down far enough then it won't pick up the storm in time to turn it and the later it turns the worse for us unless it really goes far west and stays well offshore to our west at least 100 miles.

No matter what we will get wind from this system. Charlie in 2004 was a tiny core system with winds only out to 30 miles from the center. This storm has 45mph winds out to 180 miles from the center.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by kmarc

At this time of year, a day without air conditioning is like the end of the world, let alone a week or more.

That is the main reason i would take a gun to myself just thinking about no A/C for weeks or months.

[BucFan]

5 a.m.

[LKJ1988]

Had my friend take 60 of my guns with him out of the state last nite. With looting that will happen i can't take any chances and kept 4 guns to shoot anyone that does loot. It looks more and more like a worst case if it tracks just west of Tampa offshore. There will be massive panic, no power and no food. Big area of hot super charged water northwest and north of Cuba. If it does come up the pipe it will be over rover for many of us. Still no turn. Only good thing i can think of is that Cuba has weakened it some, but it could blow up to a super cane with 180mph winds and gust over 200mph.

[LKJ1988]

Well Cuba has torn it down to 130mph. So that is good news. Now we gotta see what that super hot water does for it if it ever turns. Still going dead west. The longer it goes west the worst for us unless it just kept going westand stays 100+ miles offshore from us. If it were to stay west 100 miles and make land fall in the panhandle then the lagoon area of the gulf as i call it, that is the area around Dixie county and where the panhandle starts would see a surge like nothing ever before and that dome of water would pile up in the lagoon.

[bobandsherry]

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