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Much has been written about the migration of young people to live in the cities. But what happens
when the urban young grow older and start having families? Do they start migrating back to the suburbs?
I would think so.
There are a lot of moving parts here, so its really difficult to say.
I'm a tad older, and we "boomers" saw the cities in the 70's/80's correctly, as rather dangerous, high crime areas really not fit for raising a family. Those that could afford to do so, got the heck out.
Since then, the crime rate has generally sank, but will it stay down? If the cities are orderly, they'll have a lot better chance of keeping people who can afford it in the city and out of the middle class suburbs.
In the 70's, city police forces had a more "live and let live" attitude and more or less let a lot of stuff go. I remember at age 19 hauling a cooler of beer into a stadium in front of cops who could see it and smoking reefers in public parks at lunchtime. The police run a lot tighter ship now, although now there seems to be a backlash on this- witness the Ferguson riots, and we may be heading back to those days, and crime might go up.
If that happens, the newer middle class suburbs will regain popularity.
There are a lot of moving parts here, so its really difficult to say.
I'm a tad older, and we "boomers" saw the cities in the 70's/80's correctly, as rather dangerous, high crime areas really not fit for raising a family. Those that could afford to do so, got the heck out.
Since then, the crime rate has generally sank, but will it stay down? If the cities are orderly, they'll have a lot better chance of keeping people who can afford it in the city and out of the middle class suburbs.
In the 70's, city police forces had a more "live and let live" attitude and more or less let a lot of stuff go. I remember at age 19 hauling a cooler of beer into a stadium in front of cops who could see it and smoking reefers in public parks at lunchtime. The police run a lot tighter ship now, although now there seems to be a backlash on this- witness the Ferguson riots, and we may be heading back to those days, and crime might go up.
If that happens, the newer middle class suburbs will regain popularity.
Ferguson is a suburb and suburbs are mostly for families.
Millennial are having children at later rates or not at all.
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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The other thing to consider is that the White population is declining in actual numbers and plummeting as a percent of the total population. Nearly all movement to the furthest out suburbs and exurbs are Whites. Non White people generally prefer urban and diverse places to live rather than rural.
The other thing to consider is that the White population is declining in actual numbers and plummeting as a percent of the total population. Nearly all movement to the furthest out suburbs and exurbs are Whites. Non White people generally prefer urban and diverse places to live rather than rural.
Do you have any censusdata to support that?
I think the actual census data is saying most suburbs are becoming increasingly minority.
I think millennials will largely move back to the suburbs eventually. I say this b/c of two factors; crime and schools. Most millennials who are fascinated with city living grew up in suburban USA where it was by and large safe, and the school districts were great. Eventually this got old and monotonous and suddenly we found ourselves 21 years old and loving going downtown for nightlife, events, ect. This grew and grew and grew and suddenly we were packing a U-Haul to move into the city. From here we will grow up, get married, and eventually have kids; the great cycle of life.
Once we have kids, our priorities will change. Suddenly living in dense urban areas loses it appeal for having a yard for our future kids to run around safely in. Couple this with generally ****ty inner city public school districts, and generally higher inner city crime rates and suddenly we packing the U-Haul once again only this time to move back to the boring monotonous suburbs we were raised in.
The above is my prediction of what will happen to the majority of millenials. Of course this will not be true for 100% of people, but i would assume it will be correct for the majority of people. I love city living currently, but i am 27 with no kids. When i do have kids I already know i want to raise them in a safer environment there where i currently live. Its a shame inner cities in America almost always have the most crime, but its a fact. I want to raise my kids with the same luxuries I was raised with which include good schools and safe areas to play. Only time will tell, but i doubt i will be an inner city resident for the rest of my life.
I think millennials will largely move back to the suburbs eventually. I say this b/c of two factors; crime and schools. Most millennials who are fascinated with city living grew up in suburban USA where it was by and large safe, and the school districts were great. Eventually this got old and monotonous and suddenly we found ourselves 21 years old and loving going downtown for nightlife, events, ect. This grew and grew and grew and suddenly we were packing a U-Haul to move into the city. From here we will grow up, get married, and eventually have kids; the great cycle of life.
You might be right about schools, but I think you're wrong about crime, simply because the crime rate has dropped by 50% already in big cities over the last 25 years.
No one really knows why crime is dropping. Gentrification clearly plays a role, but crime rates have even dropped in most ghetto neighborhoods. Still, overall, U.S. crime rates are about as low today as they were in the late 1960s, and continuing to fall. The period from 1970 to 1990, when cities were truly dangerous, is looking like an aberration, with things settling down now into the historic norm, where the cities are a little gritty, but not incredibly dangerous.
A good article on a perennial subject: do younger people live in cities more? For college-educated in denser urban neighborhoods, the answer is yes. For the rest, less so.
Millennials overall, therefore, are not increasingly living in urban neighborhoods. Rather, the most educated one-third of young adults are increasingly likely to live in the densest urban neighborhoods. That’s great news for cities trying to attract young graduates and a sign that urban neighborhoods have become more desirable for those who can afford them. But the presence of more smart young things in Brooklyn is not evidence that millennials are a more urban generation.
also noted in the article:
Second is that older adults — especially those 65 and older — are notably less likely to live in urban neighborhoods now than in 2000, as they stay longer in single-family homes.
A good article on a perennial subject: do younger people live in cities more? For college-educated in denser urban neighborhoods, the answer is yes. For the rest, less so.
Millennials overall, therefore, are not increasingly living in urban neighborhoods. Rather, the most educated one-third of young adults are increasingly likely to live in the densest urban neighborhoods. That’s great news for cities trying to attract young graduates and a sign that urban neighborhoods have become more desirable for those who can afford them. But the presence of more smart young things in Brooklyn is not evidence that millennials are a more urban generation.
also noted in the article:
Second is that older adults — especially those 65 and older — are notably less likely to live in urban neighborhoods now than in 2000, as they stay longer in single-family homes.
Thank you, thank you, thank you! I've been saying that for years on this board, and the usual response is for someone to post some fluff story about "James and Mary" (the most popular names of 1950) who moved to "the city" and just LOVE it!
Thank you, thank you, thank you! I've been saying that for years on this board, and the usual response is for someone to post some fluff story about "James and Mary" (the most popular names of 1950) who moved to "the city" and just LOVE it!
Based on the article that the statement originally came from, it is more complicated than that. It basically states that baby boomers are putting off downsizing until later years. The article also breaks down a number of issues and possibilities of what might happen in the coming years with older generations.
Also, it doesn't take much to create an urban district that is attractive for one to live in. The Pearl District in Portland is a great example of this.
Based on the article that the statement originally came from, it is more complicated than that. It basically states that baby boomers are putting off downsizing until later years. The article also breaks down a number of issues and possibilities of what might happen in the coming years with older generations.
Also, it doesn't take much to create an urban district that is attractive for one to live in. The Pearl District in Portland is a great example of this.
I am an older Boomer. A friend of mine, just a year or so older, is building a new house, not smaller, not in "the city", in another suburb. She calls it a "toes up" house, meaning you'll leave toes up; in other words, you'll be carried out, dead. Another friend couple, a few years younger but retired, also bought a new retirement house, in another suburb that is almost as large as the one where they raised their family. Both of these houses are ranch-style, so they don't have to climb stairs any more. Most people my age seem to be just "retiring in place", whatever that place might be. Heck, my 92 year old uncle is still "retired in place", although some of us think he needs to go to assisted living. He lives in rural Wisconsin. He's not going to leave his relatives, his support system, for a condo in Milwaukee.
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