[WouldLoveTo]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Current Temps.

Would you rather be in Virginia today?

Most certainly

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

I don't know about Washington, but NYC has low seventies records spread all the way through the year. I personally remember a 72° day on January 6, 2006, for example, and 70°a few days before Christmas in 2015.

I remember that day, the 72 tied the all time NYC January high (the other was on the same day in 1950 that DC was 79). There are some other 70s in December thru February in NYC (the ultimate being the 78 in Feb of 2018, though the previous record of 75 occurred in 1930 and 1985) and even more of them in DC (slightly warmer climate than NYC.....and 80s in DC in late Feb is not unheard of, back during that 75 in NYC in Feb of 1930 DC was 84!).


Without this getting too off topic or a long debate, one of the real issues with climate change is it's really hard to both prove and disprove. My point with what I said is the only way we'll really know to what extent if any climate change factored here is if DC through the years to come starts to get Jan temps near 80 a little more often than in the past, since a 79 on the same date 74 years ago is really not much cooler in terms of saying this is "unprecedented".

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

Okay - how much of that is from increased density? We’ve also been in El Niño for some time. The early part of the 2010s was the coldest I’ve ever experienced in 4+ decades.

It's probably a mix of both. There's places like Phoenix and Las Vegas whose average nighttime lows have gone up almost a full 10 degrees F since 1970, I think given how much more they've grown and sprawled in that time there's clearly a partial UHI signal there and not fully due to increased greenhouse gases. Miami I think also had it's nighttime low average skyrocket more than other places in that span (I want to say 5 degrees F).

This goes into the whole "hard to prove, hard to disprove" idea. The science is pretty sound, Venus is hotter than Mercury despite being twice as far from the sun due to greenhouse gas concentrations that would probably still take many millenia of future humanity to achieve on earth. But climate is not simple and has variability. It's more of a "moving of the climate goalposts" or "loading of the weather dice" over the decades......

[Cambium]

Wanna see something interesting? The AMO is the data of the sea surface temps from the North Atlantic region. Well documented and plotted overtime.

Here's how it looks next to winters from Hartford..

Nothing will ever be 100% correlated but looks like the AMO is heading to a colder phase soon (every 30 yrs or so) and that does look like we're in for more snowless winters. Maybe we have a few more snowy ones coming since we're still in warm phase?

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/cl...scillation-amo

[Cambium]

Danbury, CT for January 2024 so far. 16° to 61° to 6° to 56°. Weeeee

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

This goes into the whole "hard to prove, hard to disprove" idea. The science is pretty sound, Venus is hotter than Mercury despite being twice as far from the sun due to greenhouse gas concentrations that would probably still take many millenia of future humanity to achieve on earth. But climate is not simple and has variability. It's more of a "moving of the climate goalposts" or "loading of the weather dice" over the decades......

If you talk to elder seniors in their late 70s to 80s who grew up in coastal FCounty they'll tell you they used to drive their parents T-Birds onto frozen harbors in their teens and 20s, some discovered love in the backseat of a Chevrolet - on ice. Many times you could walk across to the other side. You're lucky if a pond freezes over these days.
We're warming up folks, and it's all fine by me. Bring it!

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I remember that day, the 72 tied the all time NYC January high (the other was on the same day in 1950 that DC was 79). There are some other 70s in December thru February in NYC (the ultimate being the 78 in Feb of 2018, though the previous record of 75 occurred in 1930 and 1985) and even more of them in DC (slightly warmer climate than NYC.....and 80s in DC in late Feb is not unheard of, back during that 75 in NYC in Feb of 1930 DC was 84!).


Without this getting too off topic or a long debate, one of the real issues with climate change is it's really hard to both prove and disprove. My point with what I said is the only way we'll really know to what extent if any climate change factored here is if DC through the years to come starts to get Jan temps near 80 a little more often than in the past, since a 79 on the same date 74 years ago is really not much cooler in terms of saying this is "unprecedented".



It's probably a mix of both. There's places like Phoenix and Las Vegas whose average nighttime lows have gone up almost a full 10 degrees F since 1970, I think given how much more they've grown and sprawled in that time there's clearly a partial UHI signal there and not fully due to increased greenhouse gases. Miami I think also had it's nighttime low average skyrocket more than other places in that span (I want to say 5 degrees F).

This goes into the whole "hard to prove, hard to disprove" idea. The science is pretty sound, Venus is hotter than Mercury despite being twice as far from the sun due to greenhouse gas concentrations that would probably still take many millenia of future humanity to achieve on earth. But climate is not simple and has variability. It's more of a "moving of the climate goalposts" or "loading of the weather dice" over the decades......

That’s kind of how I look at it too…the current global climate likely IS changing, but it’s hard to prove or disprove. However, just as you mention it’s not “unprecedented” to see 70’s or even 80’s F between NYC and Washington DC from Dec – Feb. That’s happened before and it WILL happen again. Our winter temps are far more unsteady than our summer temps. Also, I think the concept of how we have created urban heat islands is not fully appreciated; Brick and black top generate and hold more heat. We have increased the volume of both. The results should be obvious.

As far as how the local climate has changed, it’s really the lack of perspective and dare I say, provincialism (lol) , that confuses people I think: There are many news articles that try to say how certain areas of the Northeast/Tri-State area are now in another climate zone - but this is not true. In the original Koppen Climate Classification way back in 1880 (long before man-made warming), coastal/southern Connecticut/NYC/Long Island…etc were in a different climate zone than points north (NY state/New England/Midwest). The rough dividing line between these climate zones was -3 C monthly mean temp in January.

Attempting to say now that southern/coastal CT/Long Island/NYC…etc. is in the (Cfa) Warm Temperate climate (some call it subtropical now), and no longer in the (Dfa) Continental climate because of climate change is just not correct. To anyone who looked at climate data even in the 1930’s or 1950’s….a place like New Haven or Bridgeport CT climatically have less in common with say Concord, NH than with a city like Wilmington, DE or Baltimore, MD. It has always been that way.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Danbury, CT for January 2024 so far. 16° to 61° to 6° to 56°. Weeeee

Mark Twain would be very proud....

Originally Posted by SteveM85

If you talk to elder seniors in their late 70s to 80s who grew up in coastal FCounty they'll tell you they used to drive their parents T-Birds onto frozen harbors in their teens and 20s, some discovered love in the backseat of a Chevrolet - on ice. Many times you could walk across to the other side. You're lucky if a pond freezes over these days.
We're warming up folks, and it's all fine by me. Bring it!

Are you saying walk across the entire Sound to LI? I doubt that....but again, this is why I said both to Prove AND Disprove. There's lots of accurate stories of being able to walk across the Hudson river some winters in the 1800s and early 1900s and I know there are many ponds that had ice skating 50+ years ago consistently and haven't in a long time. Both what you are saying and Cambium's charts about the 1930s and 1950s are valid. But it's clear the consistency is greater now, such as much more record highs than lows. I'm far from a "denier", but just noting why it's such a debate.

Originally Posted by simonusa3

That’s kind of how I look at it too…the current global climate likely IS changing, but it’s hard to prove or disprove. However, just as you mention it’s not “unprecedented” to see 70’s or even 80’s F between NYC and Washington DC from Dec – Feb. That’s happened before and it WILL happen again. Our winter temps are far more unsteady than our summer temps. Also, I think the concept of how we have created urban heat islands is not fully appreciated; Brick and black top generate and hold more heat. We have increased the volume of both. The results should be obvious.

As far as how the local climate has changed, it’s really the lack of perspective and dare I say, provincialism (lol) , that confuses people I think: There are many news articles that try to say how certain areas of the Northeast/Tri-State area are now in another climate zone - but this is not true. In the original Koppen Climate Classification way back in 1880 (long before man-made warming), coastal/southern Connecticut/NYC/Long Island…etc were in a different climate zone than points north (NY state/New England/Midwest). The rough dividing line between these climate zones was -3 C monthly mean temp in January.

Attempting to say now that southern/coastal CT/Long Island/NYC…etc. is in the (Cfa) Warm Temperate climate (some call it subtropical now), and no longer in the (Dfa) Continental climate because of climate change is just not correct. To anyone who looked at climate data even in the 1930’s or 1950’s….a place like New Haven or Bridgeport CT climatically have less in common with say Concord, NH than with a city like Wilmington, DE or Baltimore, MD. It has always been that way.

Very good analysis. I think the difference (and what will "prove" it in the end) is the consistency of record warmth. Being 79-80 in DC in winter a few times a century vs doing so a few times a decade, combined with something like NYC getting subzero lows 1-3 times a decade vs. going two decades or more without one. These will always be anomlies, the issue will be how often they happen.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Are you saying walk across the entire Sound to LI? I doubt that....but again, this is why I said both to Prove AND Disprove. There's lots of accurate stories of being able to walk across the Hudson river some winters in the 1800s and early 1900s and I know there are many ponds that had ice skating 50+ years ago consistently and haven't in a long time. Both what you are saying and Cambium's charts about the 1930s and 1950s are valid. But it's clear the consistency is greater now, such as much more record highs than lows. I'm far from a "denier", but just noting why it's such a debate.

Across parts of harbors, not the Sound - lol. Even in our snowiest and coldest more recent winters we could still never do that, let alone park on a car on them.
I'm not saying CT is going full on megathermal and moving up two classes of the Spatial Sypnotic Classification system overnight, but I'm just relieved we're not heading in the wrong direction - covered by polar ice caps.

[Cambium]

Rain Rain Rain... Incredible.

Upper Low over IN/KY/OH with a 1003mb low over Northwest WV. You can see the Upper low spin.

[Cambium]

Top 30 snowiest locations in the U.S... in case you had some interest in it while it rains everyday over Connecticut. lol



Actually... I am seeing snow falling in higher elevations this morning


https://twitter.com/Danbury_WX/statu...94285298766232