[7 Wishes]

On a separate note, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 now says it gets cold again starting next Tuesday. Not as cold as previous, more of a normal to just slightly below normal cold, so many not necessarily be the next 10 to 14 days. Clearly January will still end up above normal, but not anywhere near the record crashing extent of last January.

[Cambium]

Doubled Barrel Storm. Love that term. lol. Sounds so wild. lol

So latest Euro now trended south with the storm. DOES NOT go towards Great Lakes which would send warmth up to us. Instead it exits the storm south of us which helps bring cold air in for the coastal storm. Still there isn't big cold ahead of the storm but Euro says rain changes to snowstorm

That primary low CANNOT curve and go towards Kentucky/Ohio. It needs to stay south and Exit Virginia.



See what the Canadian does? It sends that main storm towards Great Lakes. No Beuno for snow for us. That sends Warmth up on the East side while new coastal storm forms off Virginia. Too late, warm air already in place. Wouldn't be snow.



We can't have that main storm go towards Kentucky/Ohio! (Yes, I repeated that)

[Cambium]

East Killingly CT. elevation 725’. 2” new snow, solid 4” snowpack .



https://twitter.com/jmelmed23/status...38089014497623

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

On a separate note, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 now says it gets cold again starting next Tuesday. Not as cold as previous, more of a normal to just slightly below normal cold, so many not necessarily be the next 10 to 14 days. Clearly January will still end up above normal, but not anywhere near the record crashing extent of last January.

I think we may get a bit colder by next Wed…but I would doubt that will lead to any snow(storms) at least to out to Feb 5th or so.

Right now, if you look at the upper air pattern…the cold air is locked up in Canada. On the map below, you can see we are in a positive AO (Arctic oscillation) and positive NAO. That’s exactly the reverse of what we’ve had over the last 7 or 8 days. Right now, much of the eastern USA is in a deep tropical Pacific southwest flow (why we are heading for 40's F and maybe 50's F by late week). In the short term that’s not going to change. Despite the wobbles in the track, the low this weekend will more or less be forced to head toward Ohio, then slide off the NJ coast. Unless something crazy happens.





By next Wed, a strong High develops near Hudson Bay (and gets really strong next weekend). While this will bring in colder air, it’s position and the flow it creates - will keep any low-pressure systems well south of the Tri-State area. So around next Wed (give or take) we should enter a pretty dry period for 5 or 6 days (If the forecast holds?) I would guess the threat for significant winter weather (snowstorm) is minimal until at least after Feb 5th or after. Precip wise... NOAA seems to be pointing toward this as well.

[Cambium]

Interesting south trend for Sundays storm.
1pm timeframe past 4 runs GFS.
Latest has freezing line at 5k down to CT coast

Focus on that freezing line. Watch how it goes south south south south with each update.

Basically why forecasts change. Now might be colder for Sunday. Maybe rain to snowstorm in the works



Hartford: 1pm Sunday..
18z: 1.7°C
00z: 0°C
06z: -0.8°C
12z: -2.3°C

[Cambium]

Euro slower, stronger and colder a snowstorm snow for most of Southern New England. Sunday-Monday

[Cambium]

[Cambium]

All subject to changes but 6z GFS has 6 storms next 2 weeks.

Tomorrow
Jan 28-29
Jan 31- Feb 1
Feb 4-5
Feb 6-7
Feb 9-10

See tomorrows pattern difference with that Bermuda High and the storm near great lakes? Thats rain for us

[simonusa3]

The Sunday night/Monday morning low does look more interesting than it did 48 hrs ago.

A trough moving through the Tennessee valley will approach the region Sunday. An area of low pressure will move up the western spine of the Appalachians with at least the chance of a secondary low forming near the VA/MD border and tracking offshore. This will bring a period of light to moderate rain for most of the area, but as the low pushes OTS.. there may be a period when rain changes to snow on the backside of the system as colder air works its way in. It may not amount to much snow, and might have trouble sticking since the ground would be quite warm, but there does look like a chance for several inches. NWS will fine tune this in the coming days I would guess.


Regardless of the outcome of this Sun/Mon system…it looks like (finally!) quieter weather takes over by Tuesday as high pressure, sunshine, and dry weather dominates most of next week. Temps should be near normal Mon/Tue (30’s F) …then rise to a bit above normal by late next week/weekend (40’s F).

As we cross into February next week, it will be interesting to see if any cold air has staying power, as now it looks like the snow cover is gone to our west. Today with the rain and 45 - 48 F should finish off any snow left. So how much eastward moving cold advection modifies will be interesting to watch?:

[Cambium]

You guys enjoying the birds and 50s? I see BDR hasn't hit it yet
60s not far south of us!