Which premier town is on the downfall? (Detroit, Warren: homes, neighborhoods)

[highlanderfil]

Originally Posted by brodie734

I think Royal Oak has undergone a cultural change and has lost all of it's hipseter/artsy/cool cred to Ferndale and Detroit and now has a very fratty vibe. That is maybe not a harbinger of DOOOOOM, but being "cool" was a lot of what RO had going for it.

Depends on your definition of "cool", I suppose. To some, being the bro-capital is it.

I really like Royal Oak, pity I can't live there as it's too much of a commute for my wife; even despite the shutdowns of some businesses it's still one of my favorite places to hang out in SE MI. One of the best farmers' markets in the area, plenty of cool little restaurants and just generally a city vibe that I can't get pretty much anywhere else apart from A2, Plymouth or maybe Northville.

[734accountant]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

Not everyone can afford (or desires) to live in a "top 10" in the state school district. Royal Oak Schools are very good in comparison to many areas in the state and provide a solid education that with proper parenting, will prepare a child to live a successful live.

I was not saying Royal Oak schools are as good as Birmingham, Ann Arbor, Rochester, Northville, but they are still well above average for most areas of the state.

The reality with Royal Oak, is the same exact house will cost $100k more if its north of 14 Mile in Birmingham versus south of 14 Mile in Royal Oak. That is not an insignificant matter in where people choose to live. Many middle class to upper-middle class families are priced out of "top 10" school districts.

Parts of Rochester Hills, Troy, and Novi are no more expensive than Royal Oak. Ann Arbor schools offer school of choice to students out of district. In my experience, sharp parents make sure their kids are in the top districts. The real issue is parents not caring all the much or lumping a large chunk of districts into the "good" category, when a deep dive reveals they're not really that great. For example, using the nytimes link above, Rochester 6th graders are 1.5 grade levels ahead of Royal Oak 6th graders. That's huge.

[brodie734]

I think Ann Arbor's SOC program is limited and relies on families applying as early as possible. They don't disclose how many seats are actually open.

[Coldjensens]

Originally Posted by 734accountant

Parts of Rochester Hills, Troy, and Novi are no more expensive than Royal Oak. Ann Arbor schools offer school of choice to students out of district. In my experience, sharp parents make sure their kids are in the top districts. The real issue is parents not caring all the much or lumping a large chunk of districts into the "good" category, when a deep dive reveals they're not really that great. For example, using the nytimes link above, Rochester 6th graders are 1.5 grade levels ahead of Royal Oak 6th graders. That's huge.

Looking at one ranking source, for one grade in one year does not say a lot. Stats and ranking do not say all that much period. While stats and rankings provide a bit of useful information, they are not the end of the analysis, especially since they are often based on a single test or two. There can be a whole lot of reasons for the difference that may have nothing to do with how well the school is educating the students. It is only huge if they are significantly behind when they go to college (or if you re Donald Trump - then everything is huge). Statistics do not mean a whole lot because they fail to take all the factors into account. Maybe one school has one amazing 6th grade teacher, maybe they teach to the test, maybe all the parents at one school paid for outside tutoring because they touted it in the PTO meeting, maybe something made the top students have a bad day. . .. ).

The "top" schools change from year to year. It only takes a few points on whatever scoring system they use to drop from top ten to top 30. The a year or two later, they will suddenly be back in the top 10. At times a school will be top 10 in one ranking and 50th in another for the same year and grade.

Anything can impact statistics. Maybe if you look at enough different criteria, multiple different rankings at multiple grade levels (or at graduation) for five or more years, you might get a meaningful comparison.

An example: I dropped my son off to take the PSAT this morning. He is one of the top students. He was up at midnight for some reason (nerves? Girl issue? Whatever). He was up at 5:30 to get ready for the test/school. We stopped at McDonald's and their Latte machine was broken. We got breakfast sandwiches and they tasted like cleaning chemicals. So he had no sleep, no Latte, no breakfast. He will not do as well as he would do on another day. By himself, he will not change the overall results that much, but if five or ten other top students happened to have simlar days, their test scores will look bad,and the overall average will drop (it only takes a tiny drop to change rankings), when on a different day they might be some of the best scores in the State.

OTOH I am pretty sure Royal Oak has been quite a bit behind most of the "good schools" for quite a while in several pools/ranking lately, but I am not sure the difference is all that significant.

[jonnynonos]

Probably all of the inner-ring suburbs are in general subject to "Detroit lite" effects.

1) The bottom has fallen out of manufacturing, meaning a lot of these areas have gone from middle class to lower middle class or working poor

2) Many are inherently undesirable: no downtown and unattractive, small housing stock that looks worse every year it gets older

3) Overall population loss that feeds on itself and makes everything worse

[Coldjensens]

Originally Posted by jonnynonos

Probably all of the inner-ring suburbs are in general subject to "Detroit lite" effects.

1) The bottom has fallen out of manufacturing, meaning a lot of these areas have gone from middle class to lower middle class or working poor

2) Many are inherently undesirable: no downtown and unattractive, small housing stock that looks worse every year it gets older

3) Overall population loss that feeds on itself and makes everything worse

From where do you get number 1? It seems to be going the other way to me. We are building/rebuilding factories and design centers for the big 3 like mad. trenton engine expanded and has more cars in the parking lot than in past years. Ford Stamping seems about the same. Has anything new closed in the last 5 years? I thought Manufacturing was doing better than 2008 levels, maybe even earlier. Most companies are having a lot of difficulty getting quality trade/technical workers. Even factory workers are in short supply, especially those with experience. (Wages are generally down as far as I can tell though). I did not realize MFG was still falling off.

Which suburbs are you referring to? I am aware some less desirable suburbs may have lost population, but others have gained both population and average income levels (Wyandotte for example). Redford fits this description to a T, Lincoln Park and Allen Park might match 1 and 3, but not really #2. Allen park at least has a downtown and many of their homes look nicer now than 5 years ago. I cannot think of anywhere else. Inkster is pretty awful, but that is not new, it was always awful. Ecorse maybe and Melvindale. Did either of those used to be nice or nicer?

[Geo-Aggie]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

Not everyone can afford (or desires) to live in a "top 10" in the state school district. Royal Oak Schools are very good in comparison to many areas in the state and provide a solid education that with proper parenting, will prepare a child to live a successful live.

I was not saying Royal Oak schools are as good as Birmingham, Ann Arbor, Rochester, Northville, but they are still well above average for most areas of the state.

The reality with Royal Oak, is the same exact house will cost $100k more if its north of 14 Mile in Birmingham versus south of 14 Mile in Royal Oak. That is not an insignificant matter in where people choose to live. Many middle class to upper-middle class families are priced out of "top 10" school districts.

Hi there, I'm Geo-Aggie and you just described my current house hunting endeavors.

And considering I'm a fairly common demographic in age/family-size/income/education/interests/etc., I imagine Royal Oak will continue to appeal to many people for at the very least, the coming decade.

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by Coldjensens

From where do you get number 1? It seems to be going the other way to me. We are building/rebuilding factories and design centers for the big 3 like mad. trenton engine expanded and has more cars in the parking lot than in past years. Ford Stamping seems about the same. Has anything new closed in the last 5 years? I thought Manufacturing was doing better than 2008 levels, maybe even earlier. Most companies are having a lot of difficulty getting quality trade/technical workers. Even factory workers are in short supply, especially those with experience. (Wages are generally down as far as I can tell though). I did not realize MFG was still falling off.

Which suburbs are you referring to? I am aware some less desirable suburbs may have lost population, but others have gained both population and average income levels (Wyandotte for example). Redford fits this description to a T, Lincoln Park and Allen Park might match 1 and 3, but not really #2. Allen park at least has a downtown and many of their homes look nicer now than 5 years ago. I cannot think of anywhere else. Inkster is pretty awful, but that is not new, it was always awful. Ecorse maybe and Melvindale. Did either of those used to be nice or nicer?

Hold on: Before I waste time chasing down a number, I want to make sure this is your argument: That manufacturing employment in the metro region has not declined over the last 50, 40, 30 years or so because there has been an uptick since the bottom of the recession?

You know, without getting personal -- because it isn't personal -- but whenever I see people citing statistics from the bottom of the recession in anything (job gains, deficit, GDP etc.) I wonder what is wrong with our country.

I mean, it is such a low level, primitive, meaningless slight of height, what is the point of doing it?

Do people really think they are fooling anyone?

Is there a person alive today who doesn't see that as the exact same thing as saying "Well, I've cut my time in the 400 meters by 75% since that day three years ago I was incapacitated with food poisoning."

WTF?!!!!!

[belleislerunner]

The point is no one cares it's declined in the past 40 years - we can't change that.

We can change the trajectory of the future which is on the rebound.

It makes your life experience much more rewarding when you realize - you can't change yesterday - you can only change today.

[jonnynonos]

Originally Posted by belleislerunner

The point is no one cares it's declined in the past 40 years - we can't change that.

We can change the trajectory of the future which is on the rebound.

It makes your life experience much more rewarding when you realize - you can't change yesterday - you can only change today.

Huh?

The subject was if the inner ring suburbs are on the decline.

If you categorically refuse to acknowledge the concept of atrophy as a phillisophical approach to life, knock yourself out.

I was trying to have a conversation about if the inner ring suburbs are or are not on the decline.