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Let me get this straight: People sit on their ass waiting for something to trickle down to them and then when nothing happened very slowly they got mad, is that it?
Uh, yes, they were.
One reason recessions occur is to eliminate or end that which is grotesquely inefficient -- and yes that includes eliminating jobs (permanently) that are inefficient.
You're absolutely correct -- real estate needs to decline in value another ~20% --- before it has fully recovered from its over-inflation.
Since the Federal Reserve will not alter the reserve rate, then you need to contact your elected representatives and have them enact a law that requires mortgages to be backed by 30% cash capital. That will restrict the pool of money available for mortgages, and drive up the interest rate, instead of having the interest rate be artificially low setting up the potential for another future bubble and collapse.
Why would it? Look, it's not my fault Liberals removed Economics from high school curriculum, but even so, it doesn't appear people have any common sense and are unable to apply even a modicum of logic.
Recessions are about eliminating inefficiency. If 5 Million jobs were permanently eliminated because they were inefficient, then would would those jobs come back?
Of course. What's wrong with that? Wages are based on Supply & Demand of Labor in a particular Economy. You actually have several hundred economies in the US, you just combine their activities and report it as one economy -- sorry, I thought you knew that.
I don't have access to that information, because the Department of Commerce does not publish it, even though it collects it, so the only thing I can do is make an educated guess.
I would say government spending played/plays a role, but I don't know exactly how much, and there's no way to calculate it without access to the data (which the Department of Commerce collects but does not publish).
Economically...
Mircea
It's easy to be cold and detached when discussing the economy.
Especially when these changes aren't effecting you and your family's financial security.
...I think our economy is being manipulated far more than that of Russia or others. Liberal have done a great deal of damage, and it extends very deep. Look at what has happened to our school system, where everyone is a winner for showing up. Our country is simply not competitive, and our youth doesn't stand a chance against that of other countries. We are going to loose our status in the world because of this kind of stuff. Get back to the basics, teach math, bring back vocational programs, and give them a dose of reality. Life is hard, not everyone is going to win, and most of you will do jobs that you find dull, boring, and maybe even low paying. Prepare them for the real world instead of some fantasy utopian society. These young people are going to revolt because the world is not as it was in the brochure...
Where are you getting your vast supply of misinformation from? I just spent 3 hours sitting through my son's HS senior year awards ceremony at his public school. Those kid's were cream of the crop and there were a whole lot of them. Over 50 kids in the graduating class maintained a 4.0 GPA for four years, while taking a heavy load of honors and AP classes! A huge number additionally performed hundreds or hours of community service and participated in a vast array of competitive events. Many did so while maintaining a job!
Compared to what was being taught and learned 30 years ago, these kid's completely outclass previous generations. My son will enter a big ten university with 5 AP classes under his belt and three years of honors courses. What the h@11 do you do that puts you in a position to make judgements on today's youth? How have you contributed to our "status" in the world?
You hear how our educational system tries to build self esteem and keep children engaged, rather than dropping out and joining some street gang, and interpret that to mean we have no standards or challenges? You've got some anecdotes and curmudgenly views and think that can be generalized to suit your political views?
...
Why would it? Look, it's not my fault Liberals removed Economics from high school curriculum, but even so, it doesn't appear people have any common sense and are unable to apply even a modicum of logic...
Take a look at the generation that is approaching retirement and had access to economics courses in their day. Look at their savings rate. Look at their ongoing adult education accomplishments. Are parents not responsible to teach their children anything?
Many courses have been removed from HS curriculum as a direct result of federal funding drying up. And THAT is everyone fault. We make our choices, set our priorities and elect our leaders, that makes it OUR responsibility.
Most of your post I agree with, but your partisan rhetoric damages your credibility. It just make you another guy, spouting, "It isn't my fault"!
It is very amusing the guy you are deriding sarcastically shares your partisan world view.
Many courses have been removed from HS curriculum as a direct result of federal funding drying up.
Total fail and not relevant.
Schools did not get federal funding prior to the creation of the US Department of Education in 1979 (at which point economics had been removed from nearly all high school curricula except in only a few communities). To the extent that schools get funding:
1] the federal government has no authority over education; and
2] schools are not obligated to accept federal funds; and
3] federal funds are for specialized curriculum like "bi-lingual" education; and
4] to the extent that schools require funding, it is incumbent upon you to fund them, instead of stealing my money to fund them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281
Most of your post I agree with, but your partisan rhetoric damages your credibility. It just make you another guy, spouting, "It isn't my fault"!
It is very amusing the guy you are deriding sarcastically shares your partisan world view.
False statement. You have no idea what my world-view is, and I certainly don't share that person's world view or politics.
You're 0-for-2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281
Compared to what was being taught and learned 30 years ago, these kid's completely outclass previous generations.
No, they most certainly do not.
Students today are less educated, that earlier generations.
That isn't mere conjecture or speculation, that is based on the fact that I taught intro level courses at university for 3 years while obtaining my doctorate. My observations, plus the test scores and grades I handed out show that foreign students and older students from other generations returning for education were far better educated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281
You hear how our educational system tries to build self esteem and keep children engaged, rather than dropping out and joining some street gang, and interpret that to mean we have no standards or challenges?
I'd be willing to bet that your kid couldn't even get accepted to a college preparatory school in any European country, and because he couldn't, he wouldn't be going to university.
The competition in Europe is fierce.
You test in the 8th Grade to determine if you go the university route, or the vocational route. If you score high enough to qualify for the university route, then you test again when you are graduated from high school --- age 16 --- to see if you qualify for college preparatory school. After 2 years of college preparatory school, you test to see if you get into university. If you don't score in a high enough percentile, then you don't go to university.
It's pretty sad when I have to remind students that Vienna is neither in France nor Italy, it is in Austria. And that was this century, by the way, just a few years ago, not 20 or 30 years ago.
I just wanna say I'm glad I didn't have any beverages around my keyboard.
Humorously....
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by fire&ice
It's easy to be cold and detached when discussing the economy.
Especially when these changes aren't effecting you and your family's financial security.
Economics and Economies are inanimate objects. Emotion is neither required nor desired. Moreover, emotion alters neither the facts nor the outcome.
So crying in your coffee won't change a thing.
If you cannot objectively view Economics, or any other disciplines without injecting emotion, then perhaps you should refrain from engaging in discussions.
Coldly...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Yes, but people can try all they want. It doesn't mean all that trying will generate results. Lots of people have tried, and have to settle for McJobs these days.
And what is wrong with that?
You created this World O' McJobs, and now you are upset that the only jobs around are McJobs. That doesn't strike me as being too intelligent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
I dropped out of nursing school because the classes before me we not finding jobs.
Then I suppose it's a good thing that they weren't also jumping out of the 27th story windows.
You're last name wouldn't happen to be 'Lemming,' would it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Based on what many of my former classmates have told me, most of the graduates are fighting for low paying caregiver jobs and such.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PBS NOVA "Life in 1 Million BC"
Presenter: And when no food or jobs were available in your area, did you have to move?
Homo Habilis: Sure, sometimes the whole clan would have to pick up and move from the grassy steppe lands across the prairie and mountains to a new area to find food suitable rocks to make spear points and find more food and better caves to live in. Some areas of the world naturally happen to have more 8-10 Family Caves than other areas of the world.
Presenter: What was that like?
Homo Habilis: Sometimes we would be attacked and eaten by wild animals, and sometimes we would be attacked and eaten by other clans. It was hard going, but we made it.
Presenter: And what would you tell people looking for jobs today?
Homo Habilis: I'd say move your ass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Historically, these people should have been buying homes and working professional level jobs.
Um, no, historically, those people would not have been working. Review BLS employment data for the period 1947 to the present.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Hence... No recovery noted for a vast cross section of the population.
You mean to say their household income has declined and not picked up. That has nothing to do with economic recovery from a recession/depression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
What I am saying is this model may not be sustainable in the long run.
Of course it's sustainable. Your GDP is growing, albeit slowly, but then you are a post-Industrialized State, are you not?
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Concentration of wealth at the top, reduced spending power of a large portion of the population, so where are the customers going to come from?
The World.
You're in a Global Economy, remember?
There are 6 Billion other consumers out there, and 6 Billion is an helluva lot more than 300 Million
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
I think our economy is being manipulated far more than that of
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Russia or others.
If that is true, then it is for your own good. Consider that there are 312 Million Americans who total 4.5% of the World Population, yet consumer 25% of all oil and 30% of all non-oil resources.
Indians are not allowed to have the same life-style as Americans? There are 1 Billion Indians, and suppose 312 Million of them are living large like Americans. That means 9% of the World's Population is consuming 50% of the world's oil and 60% of the world's non-oil resources.
And there are 1.5 Billion Chinese and suppose 312 Million of them start living large like Americans. That means 13.5% of the World's Population is consuming 75% of the world's oil and 90% of the world's non-oil resources.
Do you not see a problem? Do you not see the potential for conflict? Do you not see that potential for conflict rising to the level of armed conflict? And what about 1 Billion people in Africa? The 1 Billion people in South America? The 1 Billion people in Eastern Europe and Central Asia?
Who are you to dictate to them what their standard of living and quality of life shall be?
If everyone lived like the Japanese, the whole world would be happy. But that means you'd have to tone down your consumption a notch. And you will, if not voluntarily, then involuntarily.
Russia might actually be doing you a favor in the long-term. And if you didn't already know, the Japanese and Chinese are no longer trading in US Dollars. That is just the beginning. Soon enough, all of Asia will be trading in a unified currency or basket currency, that does not include US Dollars.
Now, you can posture and bluff, or get down to the business of learning how to live differently, and within your means (and that would mean without having $TRILLIONS in credit card and other debt).
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
Liberal have done a great deal of damage, and it extends very deep.
And conservatives didn't?
Who created this lopsided playing field where American wages are 300x greater than workers in other countries? Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals all share the blame.
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire
I do not believe you can have a traditional recovery under these conditions.
Traditional recovery does not presume a certain level of employment.
Again, I remind you that you are a post-Industrialized State. Rapid expansion and growth is what you gave up to be that. I think that fits in nicely with Braudel's theories.
Economically...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Not exactly, they worked their jobs, paid their taxes, and ignorantly allowed the politicians who were bought by the corporations to change tax policy and trade policies in order to screw the working class.
That's what happens when you roll over and play dead. Not that it matters. In Economics there's an animal called "Opportunity Costs." Now, you could still be making your own TVs, but there would be a cost to do that, and that cost is the use of Capital, including labor, which would bar the creation of other more important industries, like Netflix and Colonic Irrigation and Massage Therapy.
If you had not interfered in the Global Economy, way back when, this would all have happened 40-50 years ago. And had it happened, you wouldn't have a computer. No way. It would cost way too much for you to afford.
So you cannot say you didn't benefit from those tax and trade policies, because you most certainly did.
The real question is are you willing to give up the benefits that you got from the tax and trade policies that you so despise?
I think not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Un, No they were not. The reason the economy crashed and burned was the policies of government and the financial industry. Instead of letting the financial institutions who acted irresponsibly reap the consequences for their actions the government once again screwed the taxpayers and bailed out the criminals just as they were paid to do. So in fact the financial industry was rewarded for their complete lack of ethics and responsibility.
And if they had not been bailed out, you couldn't live with the consequences. Things would be far worse than you could imagine, and certainly much worse than they are now.
I'm still waiting for someone to show me what these irresponsible financial institutions did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
It was not low interest rates that caused the bubble to begin with, it was the ability of the financial industry to write, package, and sell off loans with knowing full well that a large percentage of them were not worth the paper they were written on.
No, it was low interest rates, coupled with gems like the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act.
Quote:
Originally Posted by White House Press Briefing, Office of the Press Secretary (Dec. 8, 1993)
The CRA regulations were substantially revised again in 1995, in response to a directive to the agencies from President Clinton to review and revise the CRA regulations to make them more performance -based, and to make examinations more consistent, clarify performance standards, and reduce cost and compliance burden. This directive addressed criticisms that the regulations, and the agencies' implementation of them through the examination process, were too process-oriented, burdensome, and not sufficiently focused on actual results.”)
Collaterialized debt obligations and structured investment vehicles were created in response to Clinton's demand to issue more mortgages or be financially penalized and suffer legal action and scrutiny at the federal and State level, and also in the Media.
Nothing like having your bank smeared in the Media as "racist."
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
We do not need higher down payments; we need banks that service the loans they write.
No, you need higher down payments and higher interest rates, and you need to restrict the pool of Capital available for home financing.
Housing is overvalued by 35% to as much as 50% (and even higher in some areas of the US). The cure for that is higher interest rates, and fewer houses sold.
It's a Ponzi-Scheme, you know? Sooner or later you'll run out of 1st Time Home Buyers and eventually home-buyers altogether.
I mean, hell, you're gonna buy 3 properties and try and flip them?
Really? To whom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Wrong again, recessions are the direct result of the wealthy stealing the lion’s share of the wealth. If the working people had a larger percentage of the wealth they would be spending it on necessities driving the economy.
And you have evidence to support your emotionally based claims?
No.
Recessions are caused by inefficiency. 1990s, the Cold War is winding down, and what is happening? Well, Defense Industries are now inefficient, because Capital is not being properly used.
Investors are pulling their Capital in the form of cash out of the Defense Industry and into other markets that have potential or that need Capital. Labor is shifted from the Defense Industry to other sectors of the economy.
As a result, you had a mild recession for about 2 Quarters while this shift took place. Remember, it's Economics, not a freaking text message or video game -- it takes longer than 47 seconds. I mention that because then displaced workers had somewhere to go, and that is the difference now: there's no place for them to go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Nothing assuming those laws of supply and demand are not artificially altered, say with immigration policies that inflate the labor pool by 20 million workers, or altering trade policies to allow the offshoring of manufacturing without equalizing the equation with tariffs.
Globalization is a fact of life. Get over it already. You don't have to like it, but you do have to accept it as Reality. You cannot undo Globalization and there is no way in hell you can stop it, since BRIC is the driving force behind Globalization and BRIC....
....is merely doing what you -- the Great Christian Nation -- should have started doing 100 years ago.
You are under the misguided impression that US companies are off-shoring jobs to take advantage of the cheap labor -- that you created. If labor is cheap outside the US then that is entirely your fault for not doing you civic duty.
US companies are off-shoring jobs to stay alive -- they are competing the Global Market Place, not in the US.
Show us how a Romanian earning the equivalent of $2.11/hour is supposed to buy Proctor & Gamble products made by union workers getting paid $38/hour.
Well you can't, so don't bother and in any event, P&G already answered the question by building 3 facilities in Romania, to make products to sell in the Balkan Region and Eastern/Western Europe and also the US -- because Romanian workers out-produce US workers.
And if P&G doesn't do that, then Unilever will build facilities in the Balkans and it will be Unilever who is reaping profits, and not P&G and then when Unilever gets enough profits, Unilever will buy-out P&G in a leveraged buy-out or hostile take-over.
Is that what you want? Do you want all US companies to be foreign owned? Yes, that is exactly what you want, and you have said so repeatedly. This is the US that you want:
Built Dongfeng-Ford Tough
Wouldn't you rather be driving a Jianghuai-Buick?
Imagine Yourself in a Fiat-Mercury now.
Hyundai-Hyummer. Like Nothing Else
Always Pernod-Ricard-Coca-Cola
Did somebody say Becker ImbiĂź-McDonald's?
Like a good neighbor, Albingia-State Farm is there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
Gee you think! What the wealthy in this country do not understand is they have dug their own graves using their greed and deceit. They are self-assured that they can continue their Ponzi scheme and get away with it as long as they want.
Looks like you failed math in elementary school.
Which is greater: 300 Million or 5.5 Billion?
If something costs me $27 to make and I sell it for $30 my gross revenue is what?
$3
If I can make the same product elsewhere for $1 and sell it for $4, my gross revenues are what?
$3
And multiplied by 300 Million and 5.5 Billion respectively is what?
$900 Million versus $16.5 Billion.
And here you thought you were special.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom
The reason they believe this is that they spend way too much time studying how to rip people off, and not enough studying history and what happens when this has happened time and time again in the past.
Americans are going to rise up? When, before or after they put their 'Droids down and turn off their Plasma TVs? Besides, class warfare is so passe.
Where are you getting your vast supply of misinformation from? I just spent 3 hours sitting through my son's HS senior year awards ceremony at his public school. Those kid's were cream of the crop and there were a whole lot of them. Over 50 kids in the graduating class maintained a 4.0 GPA for four years, while taking a heavy load of honors and AP classes! A huge number additionally performed hundreds or hours of community service and participated in a vast array of competitive events. Many did so while maintaining a job!
Compared to what was being taught and learned 30 years ago, these kid's completely outclass previous generations. My son will enter a big ten university with 5 AP classes under his belt and three years of honors courses. What the h@11 do you do that puts you in a position to make judgements on today's youth? How have you contributed to our "status" in the world?
You hear how our educational system tries to build self esteem and keep children engaged, rather than dropping out and joining some street gang, and interpret that to mean we have no standards or challenges? You've got some anecdotes and curmudgenly views and think that can be generalized to suit your political views?
News flash. Nobody gives a crap about your precious little snow flakes. In many cities, 50% of inner city youth drop out before graduation. Detroit's graduation rate is estimated to be 32% on the high end. Average is somewhere in between what you reported, and what I reported. The fruit of your loins aren't going to carry the country forward all by themselves.
And the schools apparently aren't doing a very good job in the cities of keeping the kids from dropping out and joining gangs in many districts. I'd like to see what little street gangs you have roaming around in your quaint little suburb that could pose a threat to jrs well being and planned course for graduation.
And no your kids did not outclass previous generations. Previous generations could graduate high school and be proficient enough to begin careers. Today's kids spend 4 years in limbo (and a lot of money) and still don't have a clue how the real world works. We are essentially prolonging childhood as the generations pass. It's nothing short of pathetic, and here you are clapping you hands Ever hear of curved tests? Ever hear of second chance tests? Drop the lowest grade testing schemes? Kids today get so many second chances. No wonder they all come out thinking they are winners. Unfortunately for them, this is not the way the real world works, and it will chew them up and spit them out for what such a system has conditioned them to believe.
And what do I do that allows me to share my point of view? I am a product of your prized educational system. Believe me, it wasn't anything special. You did not have to study when taking AP classes. Everything is a big joke in HS. You could show up, sleep in your desk, never crack a book, and still pull off B averages in every class. The K-12 system is a complete waste of our resources and needs to be seriously revamped to make young people capable of being productive working class citizens after graduation. To that end, it currently does not.
Schools did not get federal funding prior to the creation of the US Department of Education in 1979 (at which point economics had been removed from nearly all high school curricula except in only a few communities). To the extent that schools get funding:
1] the federal government has no authority over education; and
2] schools are not obligated to accept federal funds; and
3] federal funds are for specialized curriculum like "bi-lingual" education; and
4] to the extent that schools require funding, it is incumbent upon you to fund them, instead of stealing my money to fund them.
False statement. You have no idea what my world-view is, and I certainly don't share that person's world view or politics.
You're 0-for-2.
I have every idea what you world view is. You post endless diatribes revealing it. All 4 of you numbered points are fictitious or irrelevant, though I am sure you believe them. Federal funds dry up and curriculum is pared down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
No, they most certainly do not.
Students today are less educated, that earlier generations.
That isn't mere conjecture or speculation, that is based on the fact that I taught intro level courses at university for 3 years while obtaining my doctorate. My observations, plus the test scores and grades I handed out show that foreign students and older students from other generations returning for education were far better educated.
The fact you derive this opinion from your personal observations and anecdotal beliefs is the very definition of conjecture and speculation. You'd think someone with a doctorate would know that. I know plenty of people with doctorates that are completely full of nonsense. Those who can, do; those who can't, teach.
Apparently, despite Europe's "superior" educational system they still cannot hold a candle to America's innovation, technological prowess and economic success. Imagine that!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea
I'd be willing to bet that your kid couldn't even get accepted to a college preparatory school in any European country, and because he couldn't, he wouldn't be going to university.
The competition in Europe is fierce.
You test in the 8th Grade to determine if you go the university route, or the vocational route. If you score high enough to qualify for the university route, then you test again when you are graduated from high school --- age 16 --- to see if you qualify for college preparatory school. After 2 years of college preparatory school, you test to see if you get into university. If you don't score in a high enough percentile, then you don't go to university.
I'd be happy to take that bet. How much? Let's set it up. If Europe is so great, why are you not still there? Too competitive for you?
Last edited by shaker281; 05-31-2012 at 03:39 AM..
News flash. Nobody gives a crap about your precious little snow flakes...
Still waiting to hear how you contributed to the society you are judging as being on the wrong track? Telling me you went to HS, does not answer the question of how you feel you are in a position judge others. Those kids I speak of, went beyond what was offered and created opportunities for themselves. They were accepted to the nations best universities and will be success stories. Your every word, reeks of jealousy and anger issues.
People get out of education what they put into it. Since you confirm you got nothing out of it, we know you put nothing into it.
You make the assumption that the reason kids drop out, in the inner city, is the school's fault. I believe it is the parents/communities fault. I went to HS and college and it was nothing special then either, unless you applied yourself! The educational system simply make an adequate scapegoat.
Loins? Fruit? Snowflakes? Even the derogatory sarcasm you choose to utilize is indicative of your anger issues.
My kid doesn't have to carry the world forward, he just needs to take advantage of the opportunities afforded him and take care of his own business.
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Ever hear of curved tests? Ever hear of second chance tests? Drop the lowest grade testing schemes? Kids today get so many second chances. No wonder they all come out thinking they are winners. Unfortunately for them, this is not the way the real world works, and it will chew them up and spit them out for what such a system has conditioned them to believe.
