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Old 09-14-2016, 04:19 PM
 
Location: az
13,690 posts, read 7,976,787 times
Reputation: 9380

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugah Ray View Post
Nothing has changed. Are you people that delusional or are you trying to fool us?

Trump can win Ohio(which has been close for a while, nothing new) and Florida and he would still not win the presidency.

I have discussed this over and over and over and even (unlike you) have posted paths for Trump to win the election.
It is possible, in fact, that Trump is opening up multiple paths to victory. Recent polling in both New Hampshire and Colorado — two states generally conceded earlier to be in Clinton’s pocket — is showing a decided tightening of the race. There’s also fresh evidence Trump could win in the second congressional district of Maine, which independently awards a single electoral vote. There is one scenario where even if Trump loses Pennsylvania he could get to 270 votes via New Hampshire and that 1 vote from Maine.
Trump

 
Old 09-14-2016, 04:45 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,927,676 times
Reputation: 6927
Colby College/SurveyUSA

Maine


Clinton 42%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 5%
 
Old 09-14-2016, 04:49 PM
 
8,409 posts, read 7,404,476 times
Reputation: 8747
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
That's like saying I'm not worried about dying in a car wreck tomorrow because I "only" have a 40% chance of dying in that wreck.
Did you really mean to equate the election of President Donald Trump to dying in a car wreck?
 
Old 09-14-2016, 05:15 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,180 posts, read 19,452,038 times
Reputation: 5297
Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760 View Post
So? It doesn't mean she's going to does it? Without Ohio and Florida, her chances are very, very slim.
Actually not exactly since she is still ahead in other states
 
Old 09-14-2016, 05:28 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,075 posts, read 51,205,311 times
Reputation: 28314
I was watching a Ms. Selzer who does the Bloomberg poll on TV earlier. She says their sample in Ohio is much closer to the 2004 breakdown than 2008,2012. She defended that saying that is what is passing their likely voter protocol questions. But therein is the uncertainty in the likely voter polls. Are the screening protocols getting a representative sample?

A couple of things follow from that 2004 sample. Like then, they say Trump is winning college educated whites in Ohio and young people are going for Trump in much higher numbers than Obama.
 
Old 09-14-2016, 05:38 PM
 
15,706 posts, read 11,767,786 times
Reputation: 7020
Still amazes me Trump is rising in the polls. Nothing he says or does negatively hurts him, people just love it. He could entirely backtrack on the wall, and he'd still be getting support. I just don't get it. He's truly the biggest embarrassment in US Presidential history, but people still want him to win.
 
Old 09-14-2016, 05:53 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,927,676 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiyero View Post
Still amazes me Trump is rising in the polls. Nothing he says or does negatively hurts him, people just love it. He could entirely backtrack on the wall, and he'd still be getting support. I just don't get it. He's truly the biggest embarrassment in US Presidential history, but people still want him to win.
He's the people's champ...being out spent 5 to 1, Obama, Bill, Michelle, Hollywood, MSM, establishment politicians, protestors, etc are just not enough to take him out.
 
Old 09-14-2016, 06:05 PM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,527,678 times
Reputation: 5452
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiyero View Post
Still amazes me Trump is rising in the polls. Nothing he says or does negatively hurts him, people just love it. He could entirely backtrack on the wall, and he'd still be getting support. I just don't get it. He's truly the biggest embarrassment in US Presidential history, but people still want him to win.
I don't understand it either. He will go down again once he opens his mouth on twitter and the debates as he knows nothing and doesn't care to.
 
Old 09-14-2016, 06:05 PM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,606,100 times
Reputation: 2289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
I was watching a Ms. Selzer who does the Bloomberg poll on TV earlier. She says their sample in Ohio is much closer to the 2004 breakdown than 2008,2012. She defended that saying that is what is passing their likely voter protocol questions. But therein is the uncertainty in the likely voter polls. Are the screening protocols getting a representative sample?

A couple of things follow from that 2004 sample. Like then, they say Trump is winning college educated whites in Ohio and young people are going for Trump in much higher numbers than Obama.
I looked at their breakdown and it didn't pass the smell test. This explains it, it's a horrible poll. Whoever authorized that a 2004 polling sample on likely voters is an idiot. There is no way they are getting a representative sample.
 
Old 09-14-2016, 06:07 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,927,676 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
I looked at their breakdown and it didn't pass the smell test. This explains it, it's a horrible poll. Whoever authorized that a 2004 polling sample on likely voters is an idiot. There is no way they are getting a representative sample.
But of course you do know that multiple polls released today have Trump up 5% in Ohio, right?
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