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Checking 538's now-cast, Trump is now 50%+ in enough states to give him 266 electoral votes.
If he holds those states, he would then need one of the following:
Colorado 30.2%
Michigan 30.8%
New Hampshire 35.9%
Pennsylvania 29.2%
Virginia 21.6%
Wisconsin 31.8%
Rhode Island 25%
Now who knows how to calculate the probability of Trump winning at least one of those?
BTW, there's a ~2% chance Gary Johnson could win New Mexico which means Trump wouldn't need any of the above the states.
Doubtful that would happen. I do think he might do better than average there but it's not like he was governor there last year. As for probabilities I couldn't help you. Stats was my worst class :-P. 30 percent victories happen all the time though. If I had to guess I would say Wisconsin and New Hampshire would be the most likely wins.
It was just a matter of time until people became more involved with the election. A lot of people were not "up-to-speed" on Hillary, what she represents based on her past. A little education can go a long way.
Throughout the campaign season, they have said she had a likeability issue and also trust issue. I saw this morning she was down in the 30% range for voters trusting her.
If that was the best the Democrats could do for a candidate, they are getting what they deserve, a loss.
We'll see. It doesn't exactly engender confidence in a candidate when you see them collapse, get loaded into a van and whisked away. Most of the poll gap closing has been support for Clinton that eroded and went to will not vote/other/undecided in likely voter models. It all depends on whether Clinton continues to bounce back from the health scare. If she goes down again, it will be for the count. Given her doctor's statement and her obvious improvement, that doesn't seem likely. In the meantime, Trump has gotten a little cocky and is putting his foot in his mouth again.
Trumps pulling a rope-a-dope on Hillary. It's the 14th round and he's starting to pummel her into submission. Nothing can stop him now.
Great analogy....I just think it's probably middle of the 12th and it's obvious to all that Hillary is about to get pummeled into submission and will be lucky to survive to the 15th round.....it's going to get uglier and uglier for the lying, cheating, secret giver, corrupt money sell out, destroyer of women Bill raped hag...karma is a beotch.
We can trust she'll lie about most everything. But I will say the Clinton Camp has taken an unusual tactic. They realize they can't win against this Trump so they're going after the Trump of 6 months ago. I guess they're also pretending Hillary is the Hillary of 6 months ago.
Neither of them is going to go down in a landslide defeat. When you have two candidates polling at lower favorability ratings than George Bush had when he left office the best you are gonna get is a dead heat. I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch either. As Trump supporters kept saying when he was down in the polls, There is still a lot of time from now to November and Clinton has advantages that Trump doesn't have. You underestimate your opponent at your own peril.
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Polling Doomsday for Hillary Clinton
