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What to make of the Google Consumer Surveys? They've got Trump winning in more states than he needs...
+8% in NV
+5% in IA
+5% in NC
+10% in FL
+3% in PA
+3% in OH
tie in NH
Not much. It's why I wasn't posting it when they first came out in July. Just like the 50 states poll it has some screwy things going on. I think it's because of the small sample sizes.
It will be interesting to see what happens with his black vote 'surge' after publicly insulting the Flint black woman pastor today and claiming she was a mess. He also lied and said people booed her and he calmed them down, when it was the opposite. They booed him and she calmed them down. Sounds like he's pivoting back to primary Trump. Muzzling him only goes so far. Lol.
Couldn't rep you again..but wanted to TY for posting exactly what I WAS going to post
From watching from just 65 miles north of the Border..I think the only problem for Hillary versus BO..is an enthusiasm gap especially amongst the "Millennial's". But even the Millennials will become aware..IF this Clown/Con-man get elected..and SCOTUS appointments could quite likely put Civil Rights and Equality go back to their ( Millennial's) parent'/grandparent's society in that segregation and 2nd class citizen level of "RIGHTS" will return.
Meanwhile, GOP Governor's have like whiplash..started passing legislations ( many have already been overturned but not all) to once again marginalize AA and those "Others"..defund HC ( Planned Parenthood) for the poor ..attached to nearly every legislation in the past few years ( won't even mention the 60+++ times ACA being attached to bills)..which will KEEP those others going backward's when it comes to Civil Rights!!
So, it's just as important for Dem's to push what's at stake...Civil Rights for over half of American Society ( that includes poor white/black/brown) that will be totally thrown under bus by GOP Control of all 3 levels ( won't even go into EthnicityReligion sectors) ...State and local elections too are actually just as important..DO the homework required before you VOTE!!
Head-to-head Trump is up 1%. Clinton was up 6% in the 8/28-8/30 poll so that's a 7 point swing in a few weeks.
Interesting that it also shows Trump losing more to Johnson and Stein. I guess that must be the key. Whoever is in the lead makes people that don't like their candidate more inclined to vote 3rd party. Might pretty much answer the question if Johnson and Stein will keep their numbers going into November.
Checking 538's now-cast, Trump is now 50%+ in enough states to give him 266 electoral votes.
If he holds those states, he would then need one of the following:
Colorado 30.2%
Michigan 30.8%
New Hampshire 35.9%
Pennsylvania 29.2%
Virginia 21.6%
Wisconsin 31.8%
Rhode Island 25%
Now who knows how to calculate the probability of Trump winning at least one of those?
BTW, there's a ~2% chance Gary Johnson could win New Mexico which means Trump wouldn't need any of the above the states.
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