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As Silver points out, 3rd party candidates over poll earlier in the election cycle. By this point, polling data is a pretty accurate representation of where 3rd parties will end up.
As a person who has voted third party a time or three, I think that many 3rd party voters change to one of the main two if they are concerned the race is tight. But if your preferred candidate of the main two is either clearly going to win or has no hope of winning, then you'll feel OK about your 3rd party vote.
The thing is, usually you'd be right that 3rd party voters would be able to make this judgment by now. But I'm not so sure that is the case this year. Interesting to watch.
As a person who has voted third party a time or three, I think that many 3rd party voters change to one of the main two if they are concerned the race is tight. But if your preferred candidate of the main two is either clearly going to win or has no hope of winning, then you'll feel OK about your 3rd party vote.
The thing is, usually you'd be right that 3rd party voters would be able to make this judgment by now. But I'm not so sure that is the case this year. Interesting to watch.
That's the way I see it, too. I think a lot of 3rd party candidates in swing states are going to look at Trump and say, "**** that. I can't take the chance. I'm goin' Hillary."
Of course, some may go the other way, too, but I think most of them will opt for Hillary. Reason i say that is because of the ~4% bounce she got from the debate, 2/3 of those voters came from undecided or 3rd party voters. I'm surprised none of the major news networks have picked up on that yet, because that's huge. I had to figure it out myself from crunching the numbers.
Trump up to 47% support in the LA Times poll. It looks like he's flirting with a record number of support in that poll. He's crossed the 47% barrier 7 days since July 10 (peaked at 47.8%).
" WASHINGTON Oct. 1 (UPI) — The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Saturday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by nearly 2 percentage points.
The online poll shows Trump with 49.31 percent, to Clinton’s 47.34 percent."
Trump up to 47% support in the LA Times poll. It looks like he's flirting with a record number of support in that poll. He's crossed the 47% barrier 7 days since July 10 (peaked at 47.8%).
You know you're desperate to defend what a complete failure of a candidate Trump is by only quoting the same, proven unreliable poll to try and convince people he's winning.
You know you're desperate to defend what a complete failure of a candidate Trump is by only quoting the same, proven unreliable poll to try and convince people he's winning.
Why do you insist on attacking Nate Silver's credibility?
Nate Silver's site (which crunches numbers from numerous polls) currently has her with over 300 EC votes and a 68.7% change of being elected President.
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