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I think we're talking about different things. Or maybe I just don't understand. I'm talking about the national trends right now.
Yes, we are talking about different things. My post which you and LoveToRow quoted referred to Pennsylvania polls. Huge difference between state and national polls, the latter of which imo are worthless unless they show a difference of +3.5 or more.
Has there been a poll showing that Trump is closing his gap with white college grads? Unless he has, it's hard to make the math work in his favor in enough states to reach 270.
All year long I've been telling people not to gloat because it's going to be - and has been so far - a roller coaster of ups and downs, and nobody knows who is going to be on top when the music stop
Personally my prediction was it would be tight but in the end Clinton would win. But I am no political expert, I just like polls. LOL
The country is so polarized and partisan at the moment it's hard for anyone to run away with it, but the electoral math favors the democrat strongly and Trump isn't the kind of guy that heals divisions, he just creates more. So as bad a campaigner as Clinton is, I still think she squeaks out a win.
I am excited to finally get to the real serious polling stuff though. We are in the home stretch and the debates start soon! Good times.
I don't believe this election will be a cliffhanger like 2000. The day before the election we'll have a pretty good idea who will win.
My guess is the election will break one way or the other shortly after the first debate.
Right I would bet on Trump to win in Nov. The momentum is in his favor and he continues to pick up steam.
Yeah, he certainly has the momentum, we will see if it's strong enough to carry him all the way. The problem here is both of them are known screw ups so for him to win we have to bet on him not doing any more stupid stuff between here and November while she continues making missteps. That seems like a lot to ask. lol but anything is possible.
I do agree the debates will have a big effect here. Should be interesting.
I don't believe this election will be a cliffhanger like 2000. The day before the election we'll have a pretty good idea who will win.
My guess is the election will break one way or the other shortly after the first debate.
Right I would bet on Trump to win in Nov. The momentum is in his favor and he continues to pick up steam.
Trump can win, but he really has to cram before the debates. He can't be caught clueless on any foreign or domestic issues. He's got to surprise the electorate who largely is still doubting his knowledge base. And he's got to do debate prep. He has to rehearse. The debate is a show. We know he already has the ability to entertain, but he has to be able to do it in a positive way. He has to come up with some zingers, and know which questions he is going to be asked, and when to use those zingers. As any comedian knows, timing is everything. Hillary has been doing this for decades, and has the ability to destroy him if he is unprepared.
Last edited by AnesthesiaMD; 09-18-2016 at 09:38 AM..
Has there been a poll showing that Trump is closing his gap with white college grads? Unless he has, it's hard to make the math work in his favor in enough states to reach 270.
Well, he's certainly getting more votes from somewhere. Everything I've read this weekend says Trump and Clinton are now virtually tied in the Electoral College numbers with Trump having the momentum. Personally, I believe he's getting small amounts of new voters from various demographics which are adding up to substantial numbers including from college grads, African Americans and women.
Yeah, he certainly has the momentum, we will see if it's strong enough to carry him all the way. The problem here is both of them are known screw ups so for him to win we have to bet on him not doing any more stupid stuff between here and November while she continues making missteps. That seems like a lot to ask. lol but anything is possible.
I do agree the debates will have a big effect here. Should be interesting.
We shall see, Reuters has her up 4 and MC has it the same as last week. Latest poll from PA has her up by 9. If this was due to non response then the tracking polls like LA times will work themselves out over the week.
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