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Polls Plus- Clinton up by 1.8% with a 59.3% chance to win. Trump holds all of the Romney 2012 states, adds FL, OH, IA & ME-2. Nevada is the closest state with Clinton up by 0.1% EC 278-262 Clinton
Polls Only- Clinton up by 2.4% with a 61.1 chance to win. Trump holds all of the Romney states, adds FL, OH, IA, ME-2. Florida is the closest state with Trump up by 0.2% EC 272-266 Clinton
Now Cast- Clinton up 2.3% with a 60.3% chance to win. Trump holds all the Romney states, adds FL, OH, NV, IA & ME-2. Nevada and North Carolina are tied as the closest states with Trump up by 0.6% EC 272-266 Clinton
Nevada, Florida and North Carolina are the three closest states at this point. All three models have the margins less than 1% in those three states. The EC is quite close at this point, although Trump would need to pick up 1-2 more states (depending on how you have Nevada), it is where the 2nd state will come from that is Trump's challenge right now.
Well, he's certainly getting more votes from somewhere. Everything I've read this weekend says Trump and Clinton are now virtually tied in the Electoral College numbers with Trump having the momentum. Personally, I believe he's getting small amounts of new voters from various demographics which are adding up to substantial numbers now including college grads, African Americans and women.
Sort of. It's a mixture of things really. He's gained some of the past few weeks due to base consolidation. It's also been because Clinton is losing to 3rd party options. She typically does better in the H2H with him. The question is will that remain or will voters come home as the prospect of Trump possibly winning takes hold? I suspect we will know after the first debate if it goes good for her.
Polls Plus- Clinton up by 1.8% with a 59.3% chance to win. Trump holds all of the Romney 2012 states, adds FL, OH, IA & ME-2. Nevada is the closest state with Clinton up by 0.1%
Polls Only- Clinton up by 2.4% with a 61.1 chance to win. Trump holds all of the Romney states, adds FL, OH, IA, ME-2. Florida is the closest state with Trump up by 0.2%
Now Cast- Clinton up 2.3% with a 60.3% chance to win. Trump holds all the Romney states, adds FL, OH, NV, IA & ME-2. Nevada and North Carolina are tied as the closest states with Trump up by 0.6%
Nevada, Florida and North Carolina are the three closest states at this point. All three models have the margins less than 1% in those three states.
Yeah, I would watch NC. Clinton has a huge ground game investment there and it's been pretty tight in the polls. Huge Surge in female UA and Democratic absentee ballots too. That might be matched by the GOP though. So watching that trend over the next few weeks will give us some insight.
Sort of. It's a mixture of things really. He's gained some of the past few weeks due to base consolidation. It's also been because Clinton is losing to 3rd party options. She typically does better in the H2H with him. The question is will that remain or will voters come home as the prospect of Trump possibly winning takes hold? I suspect we will know after the first debate if it goes good for her.
As far as the debates, I think Trump has the advantage. He isn't expected to perform well against Hillary and regardless of how he performs or says, his core base will stay with him as they always have. Trump basically needs to look Presidential and not make any stupid comments. That's all he has to do to maintain his status quo. Regardless of their actual performances, the media at large will say Hillary won. No shocker there.
Hillary's problem is she's expected to perform far better than Trump and wipe the floor with him. If she doesn't do that, I doubt she'll change very many minds and might even lose more voters. There's nothing scientific about this, it's just my opinion.
As far as the debates, I think Trump has the advantage. He isn't expected to perform well against Hillary and regardless of how he performs or says, his core base will stay with him as they always have. Trump basically needs to look Presidential and not make any stupid comments. That's all he has to do to maintain his status quo. Regardless of their actual performances, the media at large will say Hillary won. No shocker there.
Hillary's problem is she's expected to perform far better than Trump and wipe the floor with him. If she doesn't do that, I doubt she'll change very many minds and might even lose more voters. There's nothing scientific about this, it's just my opinion.
Somewhat, but not completely. He does have a much lower bar to clear there. The question is can Trump do and not ramble on pointlessly for 90 minutes? He can't just ramble on and on without any point. Something he did during the CIC forum a few weeks ago. Trumps performance is more important than Clintons. Because people already trust her with the job of being President.
Pretty much. He has a much lower bar to clear there. The question is can Trump do and not ramble on pointlessly for 90 minutes?
Or say anything stupid that he'll need to walk back the next day. If the last few weeks are any indication, he's become much more disciplined and focused. Can he do that in a debate? It will be interesting to see.
Or say anything stupid that he'll need to walk back the next day. If the last few weeks are any indication, he's become much more disciplined and focused. Can he do that in a debate? It will be interesting to see.
Yeah, up until the weekend when he began acting like an idiot again. Trumps issue is that he gets bullish when things go good for him. All his worst mistakes happened when the polling was great for him. Judge Curiel, The Khans, Etc etc etc. He's also not doing any real debate prep. Which could mean absolutely nothing but it come mean that he isn't taking it that serious either. Trump is hard to predict. He seems to be led by his moods mostly. If I was the Dems I would unleash a barrage of attacks on him the weekend leading up to the debate. That seems to always bring out the worst in him.
As far as the debates, I think Trump has the advantage. He isn't expected to perform well against Hillary and regardless of how he performs or says, his core base will stay with him as they always have. Trump basically needs to look Presidential and not make any stupid comments. That's all he has to do to maintain his status quo. Regardless of their actual performances, the media at large will say Hillary won. No shocker there.
Hillary's problem is she's expected to perform far better than Trump and wipe the floor with him. If she doesn't do that, I doubt she'll change very many minds and might even lose more voters. There's nothing scientific about this, it's just my opinion.
I agree - sort of. There are not really that many minds to be changed regardless of all the hand-wringing indecision the polls are uncovering. It's just people not admitting to what they will do/uncomfortable with the choice they will inevitably make. Trump's vote is locked in. There is nothing he can do to change that. Clinton's chances are all based on the enthusiasm/turnout of the Democrat vote. Again the debates won't make much difference. The outcome: Clinton will win the debates on knowledge and preparation and Trump will claim he did and point to an online Drudge poll as proof.
Trump can win, but he really has to cram before the debates. He can't be caught clueless on any foreign or domestic issues. He's got to surprise the electorate who largely is still doubting his knowledge base. And he's got to do debate prep. He has to rehearse. The debate is a show. We know he already has the ability to entertain, but he has to be able to do it in a positive way. He has to come up with some zingers, and know which questions he is going to be asked, and when to use those zingers. As any comedian knows, timing is everything. Hillary has been doing this for decades, and has the ability to destroy him if he is unprepared.
That may be difficult for him since the writer of the art of the deal has said "that is that it’s impossible to keep him focused on any topic, other than his own self-aggrandizement, for more than a few minutes"
Interesting insight to Trumps life from the writer. Donald Trump
Trump now with a 7-point lead, and hits 20% support of black voters for first time.
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