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Ouch, Trump is cratering in the polls again. Has anyone ever taken a post debate hit like this?
Even worse, the Olympics have come and gone, so there's nothing to distract Americans from Trump's latest series of meltdowns like last time. He's front and center more than ever right now (HRC too).
The most accurate poll methodology of the last 2 election cycles has Trump up 5..
Where you getting that? What methodology? See below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
the 5 point lead is from the LA Times poll.
Did USC Dornslife/LA times poll using its current methodology call the election correctly the last two cycles?? The answer is NO, b/c current methodology is new - not even rated by 538.
538 has it OVERWEIGHT Trump by 5 points which makes Trump/Clinton even for that particular poll - which means that poll is meaningless. Read how 538 views that number, here:
You should know the LA times participants self-select, it is the same group of people over and over and over, which is why the numbers keep going up, and there is no margin of error. It is probably a far worse poll than Rasmussen ever was.
This has been repeated numerous times on this thread. The LA times is NOT a reliable poll.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-03-2016 at 09:27 PM..
Franklin and Marshall PA Poll September (released 10/4/2016)
Clinton: 47% (+2 since August poll)
Trump: 38% (-2)
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 0%
Whites non-college: Trump leads 46-39
College whites: Clinton leads 54-32
White men: Clinton leads 46-40
White women: Clinton leads 47-39
Non-white: Clinton leads 72-16
High school or less: Trump 46-35
Some college: Clinton 45-43
College grads: Clinton 53-33
Philadelphia:Clinton 67-22
SE PA: Clinton 59-33
Allegheny: Clinton 64-27
SW PA: Trump 52-26
NW PA: Trump 53-31
Ouch, Trump is cratering in the polls again. Has anyone ever taken a post debate hit like this?
Even worse, the Olympics have come and gone, so there's nothing to distract Americans from Trump's latest series of meltdowns like last time. He's front and center more than ever right now (HRC too).
It wasn't even the debate that caused most of the cratering. It is the post debate stuff spin and numerous gaffes. Trumps 3am unhinged Tweet storm is the biggest one
I mentioned the CNN poll and the 5 point lead is from the LA Times poll.
How has the LA Times USC poll been right in the last 2 cycles if this is the first time they have ever tried this method ( aka polling the same group of 3000 people over and over vs random sampling they normally do)?
Also the CNN poll has Clinton +6 in a head to head and +5 in a four way.
Ouch, Trump is cratering in the polls again. Has anyone ever taken a post debate hit like this?
Even worse, the Olympics have come and gone, so there's nothing to distract Americans from Trump's latest series of meltdowns like last time. He's front and center more than ever right now (HRC too).
Well unless Wikileaks has something catastrophic against Hillary. Otherwise all these scandals against Trump will stay in the news up until election day.
Trumps 3am unhinged Tweet storm is the biggest one
Who wants a crazy person like this as President? This behavior is only a harbinger of what we'd be seeing the next four years. I learned many decades ago never to knee jerk react to anything - especially when angry to step back, take time, think about it. Trump - at 70 y/o - has not learned this lesson. He's incapable of staying focused and playing the long game. It's too late for the leopard to change his spots, now. In the beginning - last year - I thought finally maybe we've got a person who will fix the illegals overrunning this country, trade issues/offshoring, etc. But, he turned into an loose cannon/bull in china shop. The old adage - if it's too good be true, it probably is - sure fits Trump.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-03-2016 at 09:58 PM..
The most accurate poll methodology of the last 2 election cycles has Trump up 5....I don't trust a CNN poll that only polled 26% Republicans as accurate....they're mostly calling their friends.
It was the most accurate in only 2012 and it's not the same poll. The difference is that the RAND poll matched the public polling the entire time. The USC polling has always been several points off. So it's possible Trump might wi, and it will reflect it, but it's not going to be him winning by 5 points. At best it's a dead heat right now.
Self ID =/= registered ID. There are also more Democrats in America than Republicans. So suffice to say it's pretty common to have more of them in polls. Polls with Trump winning usually have more Democrats in them then Republicans. So you can stop with the "They are oversampling Democrats" spiel before you start embarrassing yourself.
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