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I was on the LA Times poll site just now. The first question asked of people being polled is:
Now it's clear to me why Donald Trump is leading in this poll - the USA Dornsife poll weights it polling by 'enthusiasm'. Of course Trump is leading, his faithful following is 100% certain that they are voting for Trump, while Hillary Clinton's supporters may only be 60% or 75% on average certain that they are voting for Clinton. While it's a new and interesting way of polling (one might even call it special), it assumes that supporter enthusiasm is directly proportional to actual voter participation.
My take on this is that the 'chance that you'll vote for' your candidate of choice will improve significantly for Clinton as Election Day nears. But a large block of Trump's voters are already near 100% enthusiasm - he's already at his 'popularity ceiling' with the Trump faithful.
It doesn't weight by enthusiasm it's simply a question that they ask. It does weight by the self reported results of the 2012 electorate. Because the people chose matched the final result of the actual 2012 vote it's giving a lot more weight to Trump voters. It's also possible that the panel had more Trump leaners on it to start as well. That's the issue with a panel. If you don't have a diverse set of people on it to start you are stuck with it the whole way there.
Well polls look bad lately, but nobody has been able to satisfy my question of how any poll is reliable these days so I will just wait and see what happens.
Yes, for the most part they are reliable. Even when several were off in 2012 National state results confirmed that Obama was going to win safety.
Well polls look bad lately, but nobody has been able to satisfy my question of how any poll is reliable these days so I will just wait and see what happens.
I'll give Trump credit for one thing: no matter how dead-in-the water he's looked in the past, the SOB always manages (and with a little help from Clinton) to crawl back into contention.
Most candidates would not have survived Trump's failure to quickly disavow David Duke or his comments involving Judge Curiel, never mind his dustup with the Khans. Yet there he was, two months after attacking a Gold Star family, within striking distance of turning this race into a dead heat. The scumbag is amazingly resilient.
But here's the bad news:
1. Last week was inarguably the worst of his campaign. The mother of all trainwrecks.
2. Perceptions of the two candidates are even more baked in now than they were two months ago, and Trump is clearly the more disliked of the two.
3. It's getting very late in the day to mount another comeback. He would need a massive stumble by HRC to stand a chance, and that's not likely.
I think he's toast, but I won't fully believe it until I see it. Trump is the Boris the Blade of presidential candidates. He refuses to die.
I'll give Trump credit for one thing: no matter how dead-in-the water he's looked in the past, the SOB always manages (and with a little help from Clinton) to crawl back into contention.
Most candidates would not have survived Trump's failure to quickly disavow David Duke or his comments involving Judge Curiel, never mind his dustup with the Khans. Yet there he was, two months after attacking a Gold Star family, within striking distance of turning this race into a dead heat. The scumbag is amazingly resilient.
But here's the bad news:
1. Last week was inarguably the worst of his campaign. The mother of all trainwrecks.
2. Perceptions of the two candidates are even more baked in now than they were two months ago, and Trump is clearly the more disliked of the two.
3. It's getting very late in the day to mount another comeback. He would need a massive stumble by HRC to stand a chance, and that's not likely.
I think he's toast, but I won't fully believe it until I see it. Trump is the Boris the Blade of presidential candidates. He refuses to die.
It's not about him but the fact that voters aren't all that thrilled about her either. At this point the vote is pretty much baked in and it's going to come down to who can better turn their base out better.
Yes, for the most part they are reliable. Even when several were off in 2012 National state results confirmed that Obama was going to win safety.
Obama had a safety margin. Trump just needs OH, FL, NC, and either PA or CO or VA or MI. That 4th state is the tough part.
Hillary has a turnout issue potentially looming. Her campaign will keep shouting racist, xenophobic, etc because she needs her voters to believe it. Older women are the only votes she can really assume good turnout for. Minorities and Never Trumps and millenials might just stay home.
From my informal yard sign poll on the way to the grocery store Hillary had 3 signs to Trumps 2, I can report without reservation that Hillary is going to win Mississippi.
Obama had a safety margin. Trump just needs OH, FL, NC, and either PA or CO or VA or MI. That 4th state is the tough part.
As of now so does she. VA, PA, and MI are off the table. Some polls might have it close but he won't win those states. Too many built in advantages for Democrats in MI and PA for Trump to overcome that. VA is slipping away from the GOP as well. VA and CO were destined to become solidly Democratic states but they likely would have stayed purple for a couple more cycles. Trump just pushed them there. Hillary has no turnout issue most likely. That's based off of what people saw during the primaries that has zero bearing in the general.
As of now so does she. VA, PA, and MI are off the table. Some polls might have it close but he won't win those states. Too many built in advantages for Democrats in MI and PA for Trump to overcome that. VA is slipping away from the GOP as well. VA and CO were destined to become solidly Democratic states but they likely would have stayed purple for a couple more cycles. Trump just pushed them there. Hillary has no turnout issue most likely. That's based off of what people saw during the primaries that has zero bearing in the general.
She needs people who don't personally identify with her to show up. I see that as a turnout risk. If it rains, they stay home. It's much harder to get someone to vote against your opponent. The anti Trump vote has never materialized to date and she needs it.
I'll give Trump credit for one thing: no matter how dead-in-the water he's looked in the past, the SOB always manages (and with a little help from Clinton) to crawl back into contention.
Most candidates would not have survived Trump's failure to quickly disavow David Duke or his comments involving Judge Curiel, never mind his dustup with the Khans. Yet there he was, two months after attacking a Gold Star family, within striking distance of turning this race into a dead heat. The scumbag is amazingly resilient.
But here's the bad news:
1. Last week was inarguably the worst of his campaign. The mother of all trainwrecks.
2. Perceptions of the two candidates are even more baked in now than they were two months ago, and Trump is clearly the more disliked of the two.
3. It's getting very late in the day to mount another comeback. He would need a massive stumble by HRC to stand a chance, and that's not likely.
I think he's toast, but I won't fully believe it until I see it. Trump is the Boris the Blade of presidential candidates. He refuses to die.
Haha, are you kidding me, Clinton is toaster than Trump. And Clinton is closer to "dying" than Trump.
Trump has Pence..:-D))), .........Hillary has Kane...((((
Putin and Isis would bulldoze Clinton.
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What are you talking about? Electoral votes? New Mexico has 5.
