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I suspect Trump will start backing out of the campaign pretty soon .. He may be trying to figure out how to claim 'Campaign Bankruptcy' and get a handsome payoff from those he duped. Hey, maybe he could get a Court to require anyone who donated to him, do it again in the settlement?
A recent new NBC News “Survey Monkey” online poll shows Hillary Clinton with a six percentage point lead over Donald Trump.
But polling experts says when it comes to polls, the devil is often in the unreported details. Not mentioned in this article is that substantially more people who identify as Democrats took part in the NBC poll. According to the poll, 26,925 likely voters were sampled. Digging into the methodology and details, 29% (7,808) consider themselves Republicans and 36% (9,693) consider themselves Democrats. The difference of 1,882 means about 24% more Democrats were interviewed than Republicans. Suddenly a 6 percentage point lead doesn’t look as good for Clinton.
An LA Times poll strives to take a more politically-even approach: 25% of its sample is made up of voters who say they voted for Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, and 27% of the sample is voters who cast a ballot for Democrat President Obama. That poll has Trump leading Clinton by several points nationally. But here, too, there are many question marks. What is the political breakdown of the other 48%? Is the idea that Democrats voted for Obama and Republicans for Romney accurate, or did some Republicans cross over for Obama–but will not do so for Clinton?
Which poll is correct (if either one is)? NBC is most likely to be accurate if about 24% more Democrats vote in the upcoming election. The LA Times could be closer to accurate if the turnout breakdown is similar to that of 2012.
" Republican nominee for president Donald J. Trump has caught up with his Democratic rival Hillary R. Clinton, with both garnering 44 percent of the electorate, according to the national Breitbart/Gravis poll conducted Oct. 4 with 1,690 registered voters."
I don't think so.,do you really think that anyone will forget the first debate? I don't think you get a do-over in presidential elections.
You probably won't admit it, even 4 years later, but Romney clobbered Obama in 2012's first debate.
Though Trump might not have the temperament or focus to do what he needs to do to win the next debate, he could easily squash this week's upward Hillary trend.
Though Trump might not have the temperament or focus to do what he needs to do to win the next debate, he could easily squash this week's upward Hillary trend.
Could he get up to speed on issues, for examples?
Could he stop making all the faces?
Could he manage in the town hall give-and-take atmosphere to answer questions in a respectful, thoughtful manner?
You probably won't admit it, even 4 years later, but Romney clobbered Obama in 2012's first debate.]
Correct.
And then in the next debate, Obama leveled Romney. Obama noted that in the Rose Garden, the day after Benghazi, he had labeled it an 'act of terror'. Romney immediately challenged him on this. Obama's response? "Please proceed, Governor."
Romney was digging himself a hole. Obama handed him a shovel and encouraged him to keep doing so. That should have tipped Romney off that he was barking up the wrong tree. But it didn't -- he doubled down, claiming that Obama had not immediately labeled Benghazi terrorism. Too bad for Romney that there was abundant news footage proving him wrong.
But really, the first debate is almost a gimme for the challenging party (the party which does not control the White House).
Quote:
The first presidential debate usually benefits the candidate who is running against the incumbent president’s party. In the 10 elections from 1976 through 2012, the challenger has risen in the national polls eight times, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight and HuffPost Pollster.
Though Trump might not have the temperament or focus to do what he needs to do to win the next debate, he could easily squash this week's upward Hillary trend.
First, there's no 'probably' about Trump's manifest lack of qualifications to be President, including having the temperament of a rodeo clown and the impulse control of a gerbil.
Second, the next debate is town-hall style. That's Clinton's forte - she does much better interacting one-on-one with voters than speaking at rallies, whereas Trump avoids pressing the flesh like the plague because he's lousy at it. The first debate was Trump's golden chance to make a move. He failed, because he still hasn't got it through his self-absorbed head that the general election is a very different animal than the GOP primaries. And the idea that he could 'easily', as you say, win the second debate? That's just chugging the orange Kool-Aid straight from the pitcher.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
We already went through the "they are oversampling Democrats" thing in 2012.
Yes. One lesson of 2016 is that millions of Republicans learned absolutely nothing from the laughably inane 'unskewing' of polls in 2012.
As an aside, pollsters don't sort for party identification because it doesn't matter. In 1984, for example, when Ronald Reagan was crushing Walter Mondale by 18%? The party self-ID by voters was 38% Democrat, 35% Republican - exactly the same as it was eight years later, when Bill Clinton was beating George H.W. Bush by 5%. The electorate swung 23% from 1984, but the party identification didn't change at all. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...t-shouldnt-be/
Sorry, but polls taken 9 months before the election don't mean that much. The difference between Romney and Clinton is that Clinton has led pretty much the entire time like Obama did. Only a few times did either Trump or Romney pull into the lead. It's certainly possible Trump could win but it's getting into the period where it's becoming a fading possibility.
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Clinton Leades Trump in NBC News Poll, BUT
