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Old 10-05-2016, 04:40 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
32,113 posts, read 34,739,914 times
Reputation: 15093

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
Well polls look bad lately, but nobody has been able to satisfy my question of how any poll is reliable these days so I will just wait and see what happens.
Yeah, they clearly weren't reliable in 2012.

 
Old 10-05-2016, 04:40 PM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,539,613 times
Reputation: 5452
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrose View Post
From my informal yard sign poll on the way to the grocery store Hillary had 3 signs to Trumps 2, I can report without reservation that Hillary is going to win Mississippi.

I guess Florida is in trouble because I only saw one Trump sign, home made with the rebel flag next to it.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Middle of nowhere
24,260 posts, read 14,214,925 times
Reputation: 9895
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrose View Post
New campaign song for Trumps campaign, Free falling.

538 polls plus.

9/26 45.4% chance of winning
10/3 32.3% chance of winning
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrose View Post
Another day and still
f
a
l
l
i
n
g


28.8% chance of winning according to 538 polls plus.

A new day and still falling.

27.5% according to polls plus on 538.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 04:55 PM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,754,224 times
Reputation: 15482
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjrose View Post
A new day and still falling.

27.5% according to polls plus on 538.
Y'know - I wonder whether any of this is due to the Assange no-show. I wonder whether there were folks who were hesitating because of the threat of a wikileaks bombshell, but now that there isn't one, they're on board.

If anyone sees any polling on this issue, please post it!
 
Old 10-05-2016, 05:24 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,286,655 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by mightleavenyc View Post
She needs people who don't personally identify with her to show up. I see that as a turnout risk. If it rains, they stay home. It's much harder to get someone to vote against your opponent. The anti Trump vote has never materialized to date and she needs it.
See the problem is that poll after poll shows that most people are doing just that for both candidates. In fact Trump has less natural support in his party than she has. So if that's the case then Trump is going to have even bigger issues come election day according to your theory.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 05:26 PM
 
Location: North America
14,204 posts, read 12,286,655 times
Reputation: 5565
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Yeah, they clearly weren't reliable in 2012.
The last two weeks they tightened up because pollsters assumed that Romney was benefitting from more natural enthusiasm and that would turn out more voters. It did actually do that. The problem is Obama turned out a lot more unlikely and new voters which pretty much led to several polls being off.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 06:21 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,941,358 times
Reputation: 6927
Economist has Clinton +3 in a 4-way...same as pre debate and within the margin of error. CVoter has Trump up 1%. LA Times has Trump up 4%. Rasmussen has Trump up 1%.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 06:21 PM
 
16,376 posts, read 22,494,081 times
Reputation: 14398
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
It's not going to affect polls and it won't cancel the debate.
Entire sections of Florida might have power outages and mass evacuations. Already 2 million people are urged to evacuate. If nobody can answer phones because of utility outages or because of evacuation, this could impact the ability to poll proper demographical areas.


Nearly 2M Urged to Evacuate as Matthew Edges Toward US - ABC News
 
Old 10-05-2016, 06:27 PM
 
Location: NYC
1,869 posts, read 1,338,053 times
Reputation: 594
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~ View Post
The last two weeks they tightened up because pollsters assumed that Romney was benefitting from more natural enthusiasm and that would turn out more voters. It did actually do that. The problem is Obama turned out a lot more unlikely and new voters which pretty much led to several polls being off.
Actually, where is Mrs. Wallstreet Robot = Mrs Clinton?

Haven't heard or seen from her in a long time.

I guess she is resting and preparing and memorizing and engaging in stunt debates for the 2nd Debate.
 
Old 10-05-2016, 06:33 PM
 
16,376 posts, read 22,494,081 times
Reputation: 14398
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnsonkk View Post
So 2 delegates in new Mexico. Nice.
These might be the delegates that put Clinton over 300.
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