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Hillary has led since the end of the Convention, and we are now far enough from the Convention that if the bounce would have faded we would have seen it, we aren't seeing that.
On a historical scale it's still within the bounce period. However, the last 3 conventions have been held so close together that we have gotten accustomed to bounces fizzling out quickly. The one thing that is different is his regression among voters. He's actually got less support than he did before the convention. That isn't normal. Now he might still be able to get them back so we can't say this is the new normal. If Trump is still behind by the end of this week and the beginning of next week then it's likely no longer a bounce.
Totally bogus. According to their website, 13 people completed 50,000 interviews in 2 weeks, That's 274 per day per interviewer and doesn't include incompletes or no answers (you'd need ~300-500,000 calls or more to get 50,000 completes). Also 1,000 per state gives more weight to smaller states. Of course there are are no breakdowns or details.
We called Americans.. our poll is by taking registered voter lists and we accumulated 33% repub, 33% dems and 34% ind.. our poll consisted of 1000 calls per state. all 50 states.
... which is impossible because many states do not have party registration and many others don't identify voters by party on their lists.
In order to determine party identification, you have to ask voters after calling them. That means they would have had to call several hundred thousand, or possibly 1+ million voters, to obtain their desired arbitrary breakdown by party.
... which is impossible because many states do not have party registration and many others don't identify voters by party on their lists.
In order to determine party identification, you have to ask voters after calling them. That means they would have had to call several hundred thousand, or possibly 1+ million voters, to obtain their desired arbitrary breakdown by party.
The poll never happened, the story is fake.
Even if that is true, it's no less credible than the polls showing Hillary surging.
A few weeks ago, Pat Cadell slammed the Reuters poll which showed Clinton with a 10 point lead after just the previous week showing Trump with a 10 point lead. That simply isn't possible, and Cadell knew it. He also used the occasion to slam other polls that had changed there methodology in order to favor Clinton.
Now we have a real poll, done fairly, of 50,000 people. It shows Trump leading Hillary, 67% to 19% nationwide.
Trump is not only losing this election for today, he is driving away an entire generation of voters who see him and his party as out of touch racists.
Quote:
Trump's weakness among younger voters is unprecedented, lower even than the 32% of the vote that the Gallup Organization calculates Richard Nixon received among 18-to-29-year-old voters in 1972, an era of youthful protests against the Vietnam War.
... which is impossible because many states do not have party registration and many others don't identify voters by party on their lists.
In order to determine party identification, you have to ask voters after calling them. That means they would have had to call several hundred thousand, or possibly 1+ million voters, to obtain their desired arbitrary breakdown by party.
The poll never happened, the story is fake.
It is clearly fake, and the folks who actually believe it are sadly...delusional.
Apparently, we are to believe that this ONE poll--with methodology that absolutely defies logic--is accurate, while all of the others are...inaccurate..."fixed"...skewed...biased...in favor of Mrs. Clinton.
Really?
Both the Rasmussen and the Fox polls--which, if anything, are traditionally biased toward the "red" candidate--agree with all of the other polls that Hillary is comfortably far ahead of tRump on a nationwide basis, and in most of the key states for an electoral majority.
FiveThirtyEight.com aggregates the results of hundreds of polls in order to come up with an overall assessment. Since the beginning of this polling season, they have collected and done the number-crunching with a total of 507 national polls so far. Their model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. The model then adjusts each poll in order to come up with a coherent overall result.
Believing that this ONE poll (which probably exists only in the fevered mind of Pat Cadell) is the only poll (out of hundreds) that is accurate is very similar to believing statements such as "I am the ONLY person who can fix our country's problems".
Even if that is true, it's no less credible than the polls showing Hillary surging.
Bull.
On the one hand, we have a series of polls by established organizations who've made a living doing this sort of thing for years (or even decades), conducted by extremely experienced and well-trained professional pollsters, who publish extensive explanations of the results and the methodology they used to arrive at those results... and on the other hand, we have a right-wingnut wacko blog that posts a claim that a different poll exists, but their story about how the mythical poll was conducted is shot full of dubious information and outright lies. In what alternate universe are the two comparably credible?
... which is impossible because many states do not have party registration and many others don't identify voters by party on their lists.
In order to determine party identification, you have to ask voters after calling them. That means they would have had to call several hundred thousand, or possibly 1+ million voters, to obtain their desired arbitrary breakdown by party.
The poll never happened, the story is fake.
That's correct.
I'm in Minnesota and I've never registered with a party, even when I vote in primaries (ours are open). You're right, this 'poll' is completely bogus. There's also the fact that polls are expensive. Even a poll that doesn't reach 1000 respondents - say, 500 to 800 - costs tens of thousands of dollars. A sample of 50,000 respondents? You'd be looking at something like upwards of a million dollars to conduct that. And no one would ever do so, because there's no way they could recoup anywhere near that amount. There's a reason many Congressional races are never polled, and that the Presidential race in states like Idaho and Vermont will rarely if ever be polled - too expensive, and no one doubts who will be winning those states.
On a side note, the fact that no registration data exists for some states is why pollsters do not sort for party affiliation. Conservatives regularly get all bent over the fact that polls always have more self-identified Democrats in their samples, but that's normal. More people simply identify as Democrats as Republicans. Even when Reagan was winning in a landslide over Mondale in 1984, for example, about 3% more of those voters self-identified as Democrats than Republicans.
This is an example of the conservative loathing of education and intellect showing through. They sneer in contempt at things they don't understand - and they don't want to understand them, because they're proud of their ignorance - and then election days rolls around and they're completely blindsided by the fact that the polls were right (as in 2012, when they were busy 'unskewing' the polls that were absolutely right about President Obama winning reelection).
As as katzpaw noted, how idiotic would it be to weight all states equally, with 1000 respondents each from Delaware and Alaska as well as California and Texas?
Not only is this poll fake, it's so laughably transparent that it would only dupe the most gullible. Of course, since its target audience is clear Trumplings, I guess that's not an issue...
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