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My expectation is that the House breaks somewhere between 240 R - 195 D and 250 R - 185 D after the midterms. This would result in an outcome similar to both of the Obama presidency midterms. Ultimately the Senate will likely end up 53 R - 47 D, as Democrats fail to pick up any seats and lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In this era, party affiliation is (almost) everything, and individual candidates have little ability to separate themselves from their side's most prominent leaders.
It's apparent that Republicans are more fired up than ever and Democrats are conflicted between fear and disappointment. Also presidential approval ratings and the fundamentals from past election results are much more revealing than polls. Many of the conservative #MAGA types don't respond to polls, but always show up to vote.
I agree. Biden, Pelosi and the Democrats have been a disaster. It would be a worse beating if the media didn't protect them constantly but the red wave is coming.
My expectation is that the House breaks somewhere between 240 R - 195 D and 250 R - 185 D after the midterms. This would result in an outcome similar to both of the Obama presidency midterms. Ultimately the Senate will likely end up 53 R - 47 D, as Democrats fail to pick up any seats and lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In this era, party affiliation is (almost) everything, and individual candidates have little ability to separate themselves from their side's most prominent leaders.
It's apparent that Republicans are more fired up than ever and Democrats are conflicted between fear and disappointment. Also presidential approval ratings and the fundamentals from past election results are much more revealing than polls. Many of the conservative #MAGA types don't respond to polls, but always show up to vote.
Your projections seem quite accurate based on the trendlines of what matters--inflation, gas prices, direction of nation polls where 77% say "Wrong Track".
I am thinking Senate though could be either 52 or 53 Republicans 1/20/2023.
This will line up GOP control in both the House & Senate for several cycles to come, as the 2024 Senate map rocks for the GOP.
If the Red Wave doesn't materialize, I will lose ALL hope for the future of the U.S. as far as government to benefit the majority of its citizens and the protection of basic rights (especially freedom of speech).
And, btw, I didn't vote for a Republican candidate until 2020, but that was only because I thought Biden/Harris would be a disaster and so I was one of those people who "held their nose and voted for Trump". (However, based on recent events, I can almost guarantee that I will never vote for another Democrat ever again.)
Transgenderism, deep state fears, and even immigration simply do not place highly on most people's lists of issues facing the nation. What does? Inflation, abortion and gun violence. Republicans are nominating people who have no ideology other than a stolen election and immigration. Inflation is the big issue but Republicans have no answer to inflation which, in all likelihood will be largely abated by November anyway. As for abortion and gun violence, they are on the losing end of both of them.
As of right now the biggest concerns for voters are inflation, gas prices, immigration and crime. The biggest two are inflation and gas prices; people vote their pocketbooks. They know they are getting killed right now.
Republicans do have an answer for inflation, stop printing money.
As for abortion and gun violence, I keep hearing about these polls where people by huge margins favor abortion and gun control. If that were true (to the extent these "polls" say) then there would not be an issue. These would be settled issues and we'd have moved on already. The trouble is, those so called polls ask generic questions on very complex issues. When you start asking detailed questions people are NOT as "pro-abortion" and as in favor of "gun control" as the Far Left proposals for each.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75
My expectation is that the House breaks somewhere between 240 R - 195 D and 250 R - 185 D after the midterms. This would result in an outcome similar to both of the Obama presidency midterms. Ultimately the Senate will likely end up 53 R - 47 D, as Democrats fail to pick up any seats and lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In this era, party affiliation is (almost) everything, and individual candidates have little ability to separate themselves from their side's most prominent leaders.
It's apparent that Republicans are more fired up than ever and Democrats are conflicted between fear and disappointment. Also presidential approval ratings and the fundamentals from past election results are much more revealing than polls. Many of the conservative #MAGA types don't respond to polls, but always show up to vote.
The challenge for Republican candidates is going to be to stay on message. There are going to be vicious, nasty attacks from The Left and their enablers in the national media. When a Herschel Walker is asked about his personal life he needs to come back with, "that isn't what voters care about. They care about gas costing too much, food costing too much, out of control crime in our cities and an out of control border".
Every Republican candidate and Republican TV and radio ads need to hammer inflation, food prices, out of control crime (video of the mass shoplifting events) and the border (video of thousands streaming across). Don't be drawn into conversations about the past, focus on the here and now and the future.
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Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady
This is interesting coming from people on this board that would vote for Satan before they voted for someone with a "D" besides their name. (I have never voted for anyone just because they have a R or a D next to their name, I vote for the person, not for the party.)
That is what everyone says. Which Republican presidential candidates have you voted for? How many Republicans in general? I've voted for 3 Democrats in my life, all were attorney general candidates, two of whom were personal friends. Other than that the "person" I've voted for has always turned out to be a Republican or a Libertarian. I didn't vote for them because of the R or L, but because they were espousing the philosophy I believed in. If the Democrats had nominated Jim Webb in 2016, I'd have voted for a Democrat for President for the first time in my life. He was the only one in the 2015 Democrat debate to correctly identify the biggest threats to America. He made way too much sense so Democrats didn't vote for him.
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Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady
But this year since Trump tried to steal the election and the country, it will be quite awhile before I can bring myself to vote for a Republican again
We now know for a fact it was the Democrats who tried to steal the 2016 election with the phony Russia story; tried to steal back the 2016 election after it was over by undermining the legitimate winner with the phony Russia story, phony investigation and phony impeachment.
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Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady
....I can't believe I am saying it but the Democrats along with the Independents are the only things holding our country together.
This is crazy talk. It is the Democrats who put the country in the awful, divisive position to begin with. It started under Obama with his divisiveness and accelerated under Pelosi who weaponized the U.S. House of Representatives to a level never seen before. The history of such things is such that when Republicans take charge of the House, there will be payback. Impeachment has now been normalized. The Democrats have set a dangerous course for America. I hope real statesmen emerge from Republicans who can get us back to some kind of 1980s-1990s cooperation.
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Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady
Mid-term elections almost always mean the country votes for the party opposite of what they voted for for President(The Pendulum swings right then the Pendulum swings left -and it does keep things balanced usually)....but who knows....we have never had a Jan 6th before.
People vote their pocketbooks. The pendulum doesn't swing, in non-presidential election years turnout drops 30%. The people not in power are more motivated to turn out and vote. That is why Democrats are desperately trying to hang on non-democratic election procedures.
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Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady
Trump is the one who has done more to destroy our elections and our Democracy and America than any other President in the entire history of our Country
Democrats have done for more to destroy our once fair election process, destroy America and undermine the Republic and democracy than Donald Trump could have ever dreamed.
Suburbs are a bigger % of mid-term vote, and based on how they vote in mid-terms most times, demographics are NOT a dominant factor there.
Given $5 or $6 national gas coming soon, outrageous inflation, including in rental and home purchase costs, the Dems will, no doubt, lose a NET of several DOZEN house seats, plus at least 1 or 2 net Senate seats.
In recent polls, only 2 in 9 nationally thing the nation is on the right track.
Jimmy Carter territory of his party being hated, not just disliked.
I would agree with this to a point. I think there will be a GOP wave, how big is hard to say, but what happens in the suburbs will be key. How the GOP does at getting back the suburban voters that typically voted GOP, but turned against the party during the Trump years (specifically college educated middle to upper middle class voters) will have a big impact on how much of a wave we see.
I agree. Whereas states like Texas who have their own power grid which routinely fails, is run by Republicans, and they continue to vote republican.
The idea of sides is the problem. We've allowed ourselves to be pigeonholed neatly into Democrat and Republican camps, they have to other next to nothing other than "don't vote for the other guy". This is how a democracy dies.
questioning election results isn't a 'tHRe4T t0 0uR dEm0CrAcY!!!!' when leftists do it.
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Originally Posted by paracord
Biden is at 40.7% in the RCP aggregate of polls.
On this date in 2018, Trump was at 43.5%, with 93% negative media coverage and a massive "investigation" that we now know was planted on him by Hillary Clinton.
The Democrats are in trouble.
that part can't be stressed enough. imagine how far under water xoe would be if he faced the insanely hostile press that trump did, not to mention the fabricated russia hoax.
If the Red Wave doesn't materialize, I will lose ALL hope for the future of the U.S. as far as government to benefit the majority of its citizens and the protection of basic rights (especially freedom of speech).
And, btw, I didn't vote for a Republican candidate until 2020, but that was only because I thought Biden/Harris would be a disaster and so I was one of those people who "held their nose and voted for Trump". (However, based on recent events, I can almost guarantee that I will never vote for another Democrat ever again.)
I agree. Although, I also think the political ping pong game , bouncing back and forth from Dem. to GOP isn't helping either. We are getting more divided, more tribal, and less willing to work together for the benefit of the country. I don't see how much longer this is going to work.
My expectation is that the House breaks somewhere between 240 R - 195 D and 250 R - 185 D after the midterms. This would result in an outcome similar to both of the Obama presidency midterms. Ultimately the Senate will likely end up 53 R - 47 D, as Democrats fail to pick up any seats and lose Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. In this era, party affiliation is (almost) everything, and individual candidates have little ability to separate themselves from their side's most prominent leaders.
It's apparent that Republicans are more fired up than ever and Democrats are conflicted between fear and disappointment. Also presidential approval ratings and the fundamentals from past election results are much more revealing than polls. Many of the conservative #MAGA types don't respond to polls, but always show up to vote.
If "party affiliation is (almost) everything" how is it in Arizona Republicans only have 34% of the voters?
Many voters habitually support just one party even if they aren't necessarily registered with that party. For example, there are large numbers of rural voters in north Florida who haven't selected a Democrat on their ballot in years, but only recently got around to changing their registration.
In my state (among others) there is no party registration, but the vast share of people have a pretty strong preference for only one side, and vote accordingly.
Arizona and Nevada both voted for Biden by smaller margins than he won the national popular vote. With his approval deeply in negative numbers nationally, it's logical that this weak standing is mirrored in both states. I don't think their Democratic Senate incumbents are guaranteed to lose re-election, but the environment will certainly put them at risk.
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