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Many voters habitually support just one party even if they aren't necessarily registered with that party. For example, there are large numbers of rural voters in north Florida who haven't selected a Democrat on their ballot in years, but only recently got around to changing their registration.
In my state (among others) there is no party registration, but the vast share of people have a pretty strong preference for only one side, and vote accordingly.
Arizona and Nevada both voted for Biden by smaller margins than he won the national popular vote. With his approval deeply in negative numbers nationally, it's logical that this weak standing is mirrored in both states. I don't think their Democratic Senate incumbents are guaranteed to lose re-election, but the environment will certainly put them at risk.
How did Kyrsten Sinema get elected in 2019 when Trump didn't have the Covid issue economy was going strong?
How was it that in your state you elected 2 liberal democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff as your senators in 2020? They are more liberal then Kyrsten Sinema.
The conclusion is Georgia, and Arizona no longer red states they once were. I would not be so quick to write off these senate seats flipping red.
Your second link above is very interesting; nationally, about 40% dems and 60% about equally divided between Republicans and independents. If there is so much tribal loyalty, both parties have to fight for the independents. The Republicans need more of them than the Democrats, but independents represent a powerful section of the electorate.
Kelly(AZ) and Warnock(GA) are incumbents. Incumbents usually have a better chance of winning versus if it was the same set of candidates running and neither is an incumbent.
How did Kyrsten Sinema get elected in 2019 when Trump didn't have the Covid issue economy was going strong?
How was it that in your state you elected 2 liberal democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff as your senators in 2020? They are more liberal then Kyrsten Sinema.
The conclusion is Georgia, and Arizona no longer red states they once were. I would not be so quick to write off these senate seats flipping red.
The four Democratic senators in Georgia and Arizona were all elected during the Trump presidency, when swing voters were more inclined to support Democrats as they were the opposition party. With Biden as president this is no longer the case. The January 2021 runoffs in Georgia were also impacted by Trump complaining that the elections were rigged, which caused some of his supporters who had voted for the Republicans in the regular election not to show up.
I agree that both states are not as solidly red as they were 10-15 years ago, but the nationwide environment for Democrats is very poor this year with voters frustrated about inflation and so many other issues, with the blame going to the president's party. This will make it difficult for Democrats to win outside strongly blue states - which going by 2020 election results, I'd say where Biden won by a 10-15% margin or more. Georgia and Arizona which he carried by less than 1% aren't anywhere close to this level.
The four Democratic senators in Georgia and Arizona were all elected during the Trump presidency, when swing voters were more inclined to support Democrats as they were the opposition party. With Biden as president this is no longer the case. The January 2021 runoffs in Georgia were also impacted by Trump complaining that the elections were rigged, which caused some of his supporters who had voted for the Republicans in the regular election not to show up.
I agree that both states are not as solidly red as they were 10-15 years ago, but the nationwide environment for Democrats is very poor this year with voters frustrated about inflation and so many other issues, with the blame going to the president's party. This will make it difficult for Democrats to win outside strongly blue states - which going by 2020 election results, I'd say where Biden won by a 10-15% margin or more. Georgia and Arizona which he carried by less than 1% aren't anywhere close to this level.
Bingo. Given the 77% wrong track poll, consistent with most, Biden's tragic popularity, record gas prices, giant inflation, in 2022, in all likelihood both Az & Ga go red again, with ease.
Originally Posted by Crazee Cat Lady This is interesting coming from people on this board that would vote for Satan before they voted for someone with a "D" besides their name. (I have never voted for anyone just because they have a R or a D next to their name, I vote for the person, not for the party.)
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That is what everyone says. Which Republican presidential candidates have you voted for? How many Republicans in general? I've voted for 3 Democrats in my life, all were attorney general candidates, two of whom were personal friends. Other than that the "person" I've voted for has always turned out to be a Republican or a Libertarian. I didn't vote for them because of the R or L, but because they were espousing the philosophy I believed in
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I was a Registered Republican from 1976 to 2016, I probably voted more for the Republican side, I never voted for a Democrat for President until the last several Presidential elections...it was always Republican except the Year that Perot ran (that was a mistake, because it is what helped Clinton win that election over
Dole) 1976 I voted for Ford, 1980 and 1984 voted for Reagan, 1988 voted for Bush Sr.,
1992 I voted for Bush again, in 1996 it was Perot, 2000; and 2004 voted for George W, Bush,
...the First time I voted for a Dem for President was Obama in 2016...that is why when people on here call me a Liberal I just laugh....but maybe in comparison to others on this forum I am!
Last edited by Crazee Cat Lady; 06-07-2022 at 08:02 PM..
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I was a Registered Republican from 1976 to 2016, I probably voted more for the Republican side, I never voted for a Democrat for Presidentuntil the last several Presidential elections...it was always Republican except the Year that Perot ran (that was a mistake, because it is what helped Clinton win that election over Dole) 1976 I voted for Ford, 1980 and 1984 voted for Reagan, 1988 voted for Bush Sr., 1992 I voted for Bush again, in 1996 it was Perot, 2000; and 2004 voted for George W, Bush, ...the First time I voted for a Dem for President was Obama in 2016...that is why when people on here call me a Liberal I just laugh....but maybe in comparison to others on this forum I am!
Do you mean you voted for Obama in 2008? 2016 was Trump - Clinton. I left my presidential choice blank. There was no one I could vote for. I getpeople who voted for Obama the first time. I had fairly conservative friends, albeit Democrat conservatives, who voted for Obama because they were enamored by the notion of a Black president (even if he was only half Black). What I never understood was the friends who voted for him a second time. They were the one who when push came to shove, just voted D.
Do you mean you voted for Obama in 2008? 2016 was Trump - Clinton. I left my presidential choice blank. There was no one I could vote for. I getpeople who voted for Obama the first time. I had fairly conservative friends, albeit Democrat conservatives, who voted for Obama because they were enamored by the notion of a Black president (even if he was only half Black). What I never understood was the friends who voted for him a second time. They were the one who when
push came to shove, just voted D.
Why would any conservative vote for Obama because of his skin color? That goes against conservative principles. That's like voting for a woman because she has nice racks and a deep tan or a lesbian.
So if you were a Republican from 1976 to 2016, what policies made you switched parties? It can't be Roe or gun control or taxes, or the death penalty or gay marriage, or judges. A tan?
The last Democrat President I could vote for on conservative principles were JFK and Truman Not Obama, or Hillary or Biden.
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