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Wouldn't the expectation be that an abortion ban would fail in Kansas, given these numbers? Let me know if there's something about the math that I'm missing.
That was certainly the expectation of the right wingers who put it on the ballot. They figured a low turnout in a primary where democrats don't matter and would likely not vote would end up in a victory for them. Surprise! This result will be repeated in the fall in states where the outcome will affect the availability of abortions for the women in those states - like those with locked R legislatures and a governorship up for grabs. Otherwise, I don't see it being of much significance just yet. But, over time, it will come up again and again and will lead to many losses for Republicans including, possibly, the crown jewel of Texas. For years, the Republicans have used abortion to get voters who would otherwise never support their policies. The shoe is on the other foot now.
We've all heard by now about the surprising vote in ruby-red Kansas where citizens voted by a wide margin to prevent their state legislature from implementing abortion bans (58% against such bans, 41% approving bans). ... Republican incumbents and hopefuls in the 21 States with abortion bans or restrictions are watching this outcome with a lot of apprehension. As well they should be.
It wasn't really a surprise to me. I don't think anyone fits a stereotype, and I don't think all conservatives are misogynists. The idea that a woman needs anyone else to make decisions about her choices is just that, misogyny. No one questions a man inseminating a woman and leaving her to bear the burden of the outcome on her own. It's obvious to me that Kansas cares about its female population, and trusts them to act responsibly.
Perhaps the other states embracing their misogynistic tendencies should contemplate the potential loss of women in their populations. After all, they cannot make it illegal to leave the state. They cannot force women to have sex with men.
What I think the Kansas abortion vote did was answer the prevailing question....will the overturning of Roe and Dobbs drive voter turnout? Many analyst like Rich Lowry were saying it was not. Now we have a clearer view into this question.
The Kansas secretary of state estimated that statewide turnout could match the record set in the 2008 presidential election — more than 63 percent.
This is a solid Red State that basically made a Pro-Choice vote for the state's constitution with record voter turnout. So the answer is...Yes...the Roe/Dobbs decisions will drive voter turnout this Fall. This point was made clear especially since this vote was held in such a Solid Red state.
And the Dems are still facing some serious headwinds. But I do think this blunts any chance of a wave election.
You would have lost that bet in Kansas, right? Unless you are claiming that the results of that election were fraudulent? It wasn't even close - 58% against allowing the State to legislate bans, 41% approving bans.
Why would the voters in Kansas, a strongly conservative state that has been red for decades, vote to prevent their State legislature from establishing abortion bans?
That is the question that Republicans up for election in the fall in the 21 states that have abortion bans in place must ask themselves. And the same goes for the Republican running for President in 2024.
What do you mean, he would have "lost that bet in Kansas?" He said he'd bet the majority of states wouldn't ban abortion, and Kansas voters didn't.
The margin was 41-58 -- do we have a ballpark of what the expected margin was supposed to be? Like I said in my previous post, it seems, based on the composition of the electorate in Kansas and partisan breakdown of attitudes on abortion, you would not expect an abortion ban to pass in Kansas. And it didn't. So, I'm not seeing where the needle moved here.
What do you mean, he would have "lost that bet in Kansas?" He said he'd bet the majority of states wouldn't ban abortion, and Kansas voters didn't.
The margin was 41-58 -- do we have a ballpark of what the expected margin was supposed to be? Like I said in my previous post, it seems, based on the composition of the electorate in Kansas and partisan breakdown of attitudes on abortion, you would not expect an abortion ban to pass in Kansas. And it didn't. So, I'm not seeing where the needle moved here.
As things stand in the Co/efficient poll shared with FiveThirtyEight, 47% of the more than 1,500 voters sampled support the so-called “Value Them Both” amendment, and 43% are against it. The remaining 10% are undecided.
This is interesting from the article
Quote:
The competitiveness of the campaign has been amplified by the reversal of Roe. According to Vote.org, Kansas saw a 1,038% increase in voter registrations in the week following the decision.
The Republicans have always been against big government and government dictating people's lives. well, now they're overreaching into women's uteruses.
That does not go over well for freedom-loving Americans. Will it change the midterms much? it will probably affect State elections more than federal but it gives Dems talking points and might help them keep the Senate.
I don’t think it is. I can’t stand Democrats, but I think abortion should be legal although rare. Had I been a voter in Kansas, I would have voted to keep abortion legal in Kansas. Doesn’t mean I’m going to show up to vote for Demcorats in November.
Baloney. It's one issue, and many conservatives are for limited abortion rights, which is what Kansas will have.
It doesn't mean that the other more important issues like the economy, or inflation, or crime, or the the open border crisis are going to make anyone flip and vote Democrat.
Some of you liberals act like the abortion issue is the most important thing in the world, and it isn't.
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