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"After months of protests, and the resignation Tuesday of the country’s prime minister, the opposition in Ukraine appears closer than ever to achieving its goals, chief among them compelling the government to reject trade and aid deals with Russia and to turn to the European Union instead.
But that political victory might quickly turn into an economic crisis. Even if Ukraine once again looks westward, there is no financial package ready to replace the Russian aid the Kremlin began offering in December. Without foreign assistance, Ukraine is all but certain to either default on its debt or devalue its currency."
"A Polish member of the European Parliament, Pawel Kowal, published an article Monday in the newspaper Rzeczpospolita calling for something like a Marshall Plan of immediate Western aid for Ukraine, should the protest leaders succeed in gaining power."
"Bond yields, a measure of the government’s cost of borrowing, had risen above 10.5 percent in the autumn. But they fell to 7.8 percent after the Russian aid was announced. Even that would not be a sustainable cost for Ukraine to bear in the long term. But it was a boon to investors including Franklin Templeton, the California-based money management giant that is one of the largest underwriters of the Ukrainian government. At one point the firm owned about a fifth of the outstanding bonds, with a face value of $5 billion. Franklin Templeton has declined to comment on its position in Ukraine."
So there are more objective factors that need to be looked at and adressed realistically speaking, other than "political aspirations
."
I'd say both will need to be cooked in the pots. A nice 'goulash' to be perking and bubbling up, eh??? (not sure of Russian/Ukrainian word!) If you ask me a question needs to be answered and that is which group is it better for Ukraine to be aligned with, the EU or the Eurasian Union? Or can they have a little here and a little there when it comes to the 'dismal science' which is entangled just like 'white on rice' with politics?
I'd say both will need to be cooked in the pots. A nice 'goulash' to be perking and bubbling up, eh??? (not sure of Russian/Ukrainian word!)
This is Hungarian dish. But yes, it often cooking in Ukraine.
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Originally Posted by travric
If you ask me a question needs to be answered and that is which group is it better for Ukraine to be aligned with, the EU or the Eurasian Union? Or can they have a little here and a little there when it comes to the 'dismal science' which is entangled just like 'white on rice' with politics?
For Ukraine really favorable was 'sitting on two chairs', and problems more likely in a divergence of these 'chairs' recently when Ukraine compel to make a unequivocal choice in favour of one of sides.
Had it happened in USA (or Europe), protests like these would be dispersed brutally and swiftly, democratic police states make sure that any threat to the current order is suppressed early using disproportionate force and repression. That's why everybody is so compliant here, the wage of non-compliance is joblessness, low social class and destitution.
Democracy is a fiction, it has no power to resolve any moderately painful issue society faces.
Democrats or Republicans, it's little more than a circus to calm people down, both party' policies are very consistent in everything that really matters. American politicians represent very narrow class segment of the American population (and they serve even narrower interests that launched them in power), it doesn't matter whom you vote for, any political force (non existent for time being) that has a tiny chance to challenge status quo is marginalized and eliminated long before election date. That's why it's extremely important for the ruling oligarchies to appeal to elections and voting "the bums" out (to be replaced with different set of the identical bums).
For Americans, oligarchical political, power & economic arrangements are natural and the only possible if not sacred. Unfortunately for Ukraine, it has issues that managed democracy cannot resolve. Issue #1, former common property of the Soviet State is not split between clans to anybody' satisfaction. While all strata of Ukrainians accept the idea that oligarchy, private property and market economy are the way to get "prosperity" going, the burning issue of who'll be a master and who'll be a slave is not settled yet. Most believe it's because wrong people got to the wealth trough first, grabbed disproportionate share of the former common wealth, and rigged the rules of the game without regard to the less successful ones. Technically, whatever happens in Ukraine is not a revolution. Both "revolutionaries" and "dictators" are OK with current social order, it's just that "revolutionaries" want to fill it with "better"people who will not use their position of power to grab more wealth for themselves. It's naive, at best. Accumulation of capital and splitting pristine North American continent between private parties was not made by saints thinking of "common good".
Yanukovich, being a low level thug launched into presidency, have been preoccupied with enriching himself, his family and his clan utilizing state repressive machinery and old-fashioned mob (both entities are increasingly hard to distinguish). Unfortunately, for him, he did that without regard to anybody' else "fair" share of the loot. People of means got increasingly worried.
Basically its a disputed conflict about who is going to be in the privileged class to receive the bribes of the benefits of a comfortable standard of living aimed by competing spheres of the multinational state oligarchies of the Eu and Russia wanting to be the dominant force in exploiting the natural resources (agricultural) of the Ukraine.
Apparently Mr. Yanukovych is ill. e has removed hismelf from the scene. Pressure builidng on him perhaps? It does look like it's getting 'speka in the kukhnia'. (I apologize if grammar not correct!). I think this is not good. Not good at all. As we know, if someone is ill bad things can happen. Very bad things.
Quote:
Basically its a disputed conflict about who is going to be in the privileged class to receive the bribes of the benefits of a comfortable standard of living aimed by competing spheres of the multinational state oligarchies of the Eu and Russia wanting to be the dominant force in exploiting the natural resources (agricultural) of the Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot be the only one to determine its future. Geography is a killer. So the motif of cooking. I think the old adage that 'too many cooks spoil the pot' is apropos for the situation.
His big mistake was the underestimation how the opposition would react when he decided to crack down on protest. That just made them more defiant and more difficult to pacify. There are 2 ways to go he must choose from , resign and let new elections take place or escalating conflict with the possibility of the situation deteriorating similar to Egypt or at worst Syria.
I'd say both will need to be cooked in the pots. A nice 'goulash' to be perking and bubbling up, eh??? (not sure of Russian/Ukrainian word!) If you ask me a question needs to be answered and that is which group is it better for Ukraine to be aligned with, the EU or the Eurasian Union? Or can they have a little here and a little there when it comes to the 'dismal science' which is entangled just like 'white on rice' with politics?
"Гуляш" is a well-known dish in Russia, quite common I'd say, and this whole situation does start looking as a "gulash" more and more.
So the West is finally figuring out that all those slogans of "freedom and democracy" have a price tag of about.... hmm...$24 billion? Because that's what Ukraine apparently needs to stay afloat.
No free rides and some modest profits as in case with Russia back in the 90ies I see (yeah, back then such goods as "freedom and democracy" were sold practically for free.)
Time to get thinking quick; if Ukraine to be purchased with the benefit of EU "Eastern expansion," who is going to shell out the needed money? And if money are not sufficient and all EU ( no, make it IMF - they were the ones behind all those *successful* deals with Russia before,) can't offer more than modest loans with a taste of "austerity," which will plunge the miserable as it already is life of ordinary Ukrainians into more misery, what kind of "success" it's going to be?
So quick, quick, let's run to Mr. Pu and try to negotiate how much he is willing to pay in this whole situation ( and is he willing at all) - may be we'll cut out some deal for him in return. Everyone has to save the face you know in this looming crisis. It all looked nice and dandy - Ukraine being a pawn in the big game of chess, until the price sticker showed up. So "gulash" it is.
His big mistake was the underestimation how the opposition would react when he decided to crack down on protest. That just made them more defiant and more difficult to pacify. There are 2 ways to go he must choose from , resign and let new elections take place or escalating conflict with the possibility of the situation deteriorating similar to Egypt or at worst Syria.
He didn't have too many choices to begin with, really.
He knew that Ukraine was that "piece of meat" the West was already eying to cut off from Russia and that the opposition ( having support from the West) would be very bold in its actions because of this very factor.
Putin was yet another idiot, when he criticized Yanukovich for not clamping down hard enough on opposition. What works for Putin, would absolutely not work for Yanukovich in his situation.
Plenty of Russians who learned their lesson about the "kindness" of the West and its true motives and intentions towards Russia are still weary of any foreign intervention, so that's the prime reason why Putin has enough of support and can stomp out the opposition, while what Ukrainians are going to learn from this whole ordeal yet remains to be seen. That's why Yanukovich didn't have much leverage to begin with.
If it was me i would resign and let the people decide what direction they want to take. Be careful what you wish for, it might not turn out as rosy as you think. I'm surprised after seeing with the EU is doing to Greece and other countries having sovereign debt problems in regards to forcing them to implement austerity measures in conditions for loans that people in the Ukraine wants to follow down that path. Seems like they got a better deal with Russia in terms of loan guarantees. Maybe they feel they been under Russia's influence forever and has been unjustly exploited because of it and is now trying to escape that legacy.
"Гуляш" is a well-known dish in Russia, quite common I'd say, and this whole situation does start looking as a "gulash" more and more.
Would love to try it! I am partial to Eastern European cooking but I have to watch the fat!
And speaking of goulash, perhaps we may see some good, old-fashioned 'goulash socialism' to solve this prerssing issue between the West and the East and those apparently stuck in the middle? Maybe even paving the way to some fruitul negotiation?????
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