Quote:
Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov
Yes, but it will not be a secular state, but a second Iran. But this is better than constant war anyway.
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It's a "second Iran" only in a sense that it's going to be yet another theological state, based on Koran teachings.
But that's where the similarities with Iran end.
As for the rest - situation with Afghanistan is very different.
Iran in spite of its crazy current government, has a long history as a state, with all the attributes of it.
From what I understand, they have their own system of education, universities and what not.
But when it comes to Afghanistan, think more in terms of the Northern Caucasus and THEIR culture ( Chechens, Ingush, Circassions and whoever else.)
So it's basically more primitive, medieval tribal culture; not the one that brings forth thinkers and scientists, but rather herders and warriors. Sort of like what Arabs were, when they conquered that part of the world.
Yes, there is a
Kabul University out there of course, but as you can see for yourself, it's mostly an international effort.
So in order to become a functioning state with functioning economy ( and not just a major producer of heroin,) these people literally need some other power to lean on, in order to achieve this goal.
Sort of like what Russians did for the Northern Caucasus.
So at this point, while they are at everyone's cross-hair, and under everyone's scrutiny, Taliban understands that they need to come up with some viable *economy plan,* in order to look convincing and to be left alone. (The heroin production as a "budget source* is still a big elephant in the room for everyone involved in negotiations.)
So at this point Talibs are looking at China, as major "investors in Afghan economy," in order to look legit.
The problem is, Talibs are overwhelmingly Pashtun government, while this particular ethnic group comprise only about 50% of population ( if not less.)
Not even 60 or 70%, so you can see how this is going to be a problem in terms of political stability, and why the Chinese won't be in a rush to jump in.
Particularly if to keep in mind that Al Khaeda and other Sunni radical groups are circling like sharks near-by, eager to join their "Sunni bros" of Taliban.
So nope, Afghanistan is not a "second Iran" sorry to say...
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