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New track still shows Miami square on. Then second landfall South Carolina and Georgia border.
Looking more and more certain Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be impacted.
If Irma goes back out to (or remains at) sea as it exits the vicinity of Florida, is there any indication what its strength will be as it approaches Georgia and S. Carolina? Too early to tell?
Not looking good for Savannah and the rest of coastal GA and SC right now.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Reputation: 1932
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefox
If Irma goes back out to (or remains at) sea as it exits the vicinity of Florida, is there any indication what its strength will be as it approaches Georgia and S. Carolina? Too early to tell?
Not looking good for Savannah and the rest of coastal GA and SC right now.
Good question. I didn't copy forecast that far.
Here it is:
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
That is about 8 pm on Monday. That is the same time and day predicted for impact near border of two States. Of course that place is subject to wide change, however intensity is likely to be more accurate.
Take 95 KT times 1.15 to get mph.
Now compare answer versus Cat chart.
It is right at upper end of a Cat 2 which reads:
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
and lower end of Cat 3 which reads
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Note While on this page I will cut and paste Cat 4.
Miami and Fort Lauderdale should expect Irma to still be Cat 4. It reads:
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Thus meaning the winds of 185-190 MPH are absolutely real, very similar to when Andrew landed in Florida in 1992. These are the scariest type as "Miniwhirls" (think of them like hurricane embedded Tornadoes) can easily do F3-F4 damage when hitting a neighborhood straight up.
Let's hope for the best but expect the worst. This thing looks to be on a gridlock path for South Florida. But like Andrew (if anyone remembers) it was hard to predict where the eye wall would land until a few hours before the storm made impact. It ended up hitting Homestead, rather Miami Beach got mostly spared. This time around who knows. This thing is going to be nasty to deal with.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Forecast 33 for Irma
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
.64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
.50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 210SE 120SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 68.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 67.7W
.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.
.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.
.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.
.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.
.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT
Comments: First time winds dropped a little. However, impact on Miami, Fort Lauderdale will still be Cat 4, impact appears to be revised upward for Georgia/South Carolina to a Cat 3.
Thus meaning the winds of 185-190 MPH are absolutely real, very similar to when Andrew landed in Florida in 1992. These are the scariest type as "Miniwhirls" (think of them like hurricane embedded Tornadoes) can easily do F3-F4 damage when hitting a neighborhood straight up.
Let's hope for the best but expect the worst. This thing looks to be on a gridlock path for South Florida. But like Andrew (if anyone remembers) it was hard to predict where the eye wall would land until a few hours before the storm made impact. It ended up hitting Homestead, rather Miami Beach got mostly spared. This time around who knows. This thing is going to be nasty to deal with.
Yes N6, here in SW Fl. they are reporting wind gusts of 220. Yesterday the gusts were up to 225.
Yes, sure do remember Andrew. The weather men here are saying this is much meaner than even Andrew was. After seeing Andrew up close, we won't be staying. And as you said, Andrew was like 100 tornadoes wrapped up in a hurricane.
*For my friends here on CD, we will most likely be leaving around noon. I use a PC to access CD, so it will be next wk. before I make it back. Wish me luck, and I hope everyone stays safe and does not take this storm lightly. Just a slight shift in the projected path could mean she hits SW Fl. Just not worth it. Get out and take your loved ones with you.
Last edited by TerraDown; 09-07-2017 at 03:44 AM..
Very few rig designers design a mast to with stand hurricane force winds. I calculated the force on my forestay during a hurricane would be around 16,000 lbs.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Here is public bulletin 33
BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017
...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 68.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.
All warnings are discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required later today for portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 68.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center should pass north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near the Central Bahamas by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft
Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by
Thursday night or early Friday.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. Huricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
Friday night and Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...An additional 2 to 4 inches. Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southern Haiti...1 to 4 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and they should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
5am Update: Good news if you can call it that is, NHC has it a Cat 4 hitting Miami, not 5.
Winds have decreased to 180mph. Pressure risen to 921mb and check out her forward speed. Up again 17mph. Gaining latitude will usually speed things up
Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017
...EYE OF IRMA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 68.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 68.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center should pass
north of the coast of Hispaniola later today, be near the Turks and
Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by this evening, and then be near
the Central Bahamas by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
NHC seems to be the west most track vs other models
Latest Main Models:: I'd go with a mix of Euro and GFS right now. Skimming Florida, hitting SC. Navy is wrong. I don't see the curve back into Georgia like Euro showing. Maybe.
One common thing I've seen over past few days is how the moisture and storm just dies over land and doesn't make progress to northeast or past Ohio Valley. High Pressure is strong in Quebec and blocks it so it just spins and deteriorates over land!
GFS: Misses Florida landfall hits South Carolina as a 905mb
Canadian: Misses Florida hits SC/NC border as a sub 970mb
Euro: Hits Miami, exits north of Palm Bay, hits Georgia for second landfall as a sub 965mb
Navy: Hits around Naples as a sub 966mb, rides up the state and into Georgia
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