Atlantic - Michael forms October 7, 2018 (history, minimum, cold, Florida)

[Cambium]

More technicals. Why I love twitter. Love reading the good back and forth discussions.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049814078560956416

[Psychoma]

Beastmode:

[Psychoma]

And another post from Philippe tonight showing large amount of lightning around the core of hurricane. Recent studies show lightning, which isn't overall too common in hurricanes but is present here and there, is actually a sign of intensity change especially in a sudden cluster as this evening is showing. In this case given increasingly well defined satellite imagery suggests its continuing to strengthen.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049836692499132416

[lkmax]

I really feel for everyone who is in the path of this storm.

I'm in eastern NC. I actually didn't even know about Michael until this morning. I hope he doesn't bring a ton of wind and rain here. My roof can't take it. A lot of homes and businesses around here can't take it.

[Psychoma]

9Oct18 10pCDT/11pEDT - Winds 125mph(205km/h), moving N 12mph(19km/h), pressure 947mb. Still Cat3, nearly a Cat4. NHC has it making landfall as a Cat4 on Wednesday at 130mph.

No stalling for this storm...it's off to Europe towards end of the weekend and early next week:


Flash flooding will be a concern across much of the SE US next 3 days. Tropical systems can bring up to several inches per hour rainfall rates. 3-day possible scattered rain total maps:



Updated cone map:




Tropical Storm force winds (39+mph) just offshore slowly pushing towards the coast. 39mph is a good strong breeze but not destructive by itself. But wear and tear at around 39 and higher for a few hours will start bringing trees and power lines down some locations, likely starting late tonight. As more rain bands come in those winds will go up. Hurricane force winds(74+mph) are in the smaller red area near the center of storm. Many of the bridges near the coast will close once winds reach a certain speed, some at the TS wind threshold of 39mph. They may not reopen again until after the storm and inspections.






Radar shows outer band just offshore but its coming in soon. Radar can only see so far out over water and we can't see the center clearly yet or the other half of the storm yet.




As these bands come ashore tonight and especially all day tomorrow through Thursday, we will see several small and brief lived tornadoes that will tend to move in the direction of the rain band its associated with. These will pop up with little to no warning and quickly be gone again.


Storm surge will likely be a big story with this storm, can be very destructive if higher values are seen in any developed areas. Surge is like an even higher high tide. It's the entire body of water rising with waves on top. Water is very heavy and it does not take much along the immediate coast to knock down buildings. Further inland it can flood up rivers and bays miles inland. Consult this interactive map ( https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...ation#contents ) (***Note the time in the text just to top left corner of that main image/window of map...if it says "From 05 PM... then it hasn't updated tonight yet,,,updates about 90min after the main 5 and 11 updates, so make sure it says 11pm for latest info tonight) to see current possible heights from this storm. Waters are already rising and will begin cutting off escape routes entirely soon.



Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft




Winds: message from NHC: "Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland."

[Psychoma]

To help reiterate the dangers of storm surge (it accounts for over half of US tropical system deaths on average, inland flooding is second) here is what Ike did several years ago to what used to be many beach front homes:

[Psychoma]

For those who are staying and will experience a Cat3/4 hurricane winds full force (depending on where that center goes and how close you are to it): Those top winds will be found right around the eye/center point of the storm. If you do not get hit with that then you didn't get hit by a Cat3/4 storm, you got less as winds are less as you get away from that main core destructive eye wall. If communications are up you will see it on radar as it approaches as a heavy looking band of rain around a clear eye/hole/center of storm. That said hurricane force winds will be outside that core but not likely cat4 winds. As of 11pm hurricane force winds (74+mph) extend up to 45miles from storm center (so total diameter of 90miles of winds 74mph or greater), Tropical Storm force winds (39-73mph) extend 175miles out from center (so total diameter of 350miles across). Strong Tropical Storm force winds of around 60-70mph is when older gas station awnings tend to blow down. Trees and power lines start to come down around 39mph, big larger hard wood trees tend to break here and there where they can't bend in higher winds as you approach hurricane winds.

But anyways...if you experience those core Cat3/4 winds you NEED to treat it like a slow moving 30+mile wide tornado, sheltering in the lowest most interior room of your building away from windows with as many walls between you and the outside as possible. Keep all windows, doors and garage doors closed. Do not tape your windows (yes that used to be the suggestion but now its not as was found it tends to hold peices of briken glass together on a flying sail of tape...not good). Do not stay in a mobile home.

[Craziaskowboi]

Tallahassee is so ****ed.

[Bobdreamz]

CAT 4 now !

[Icy Tea]

I'm curious to see if this storm will live up to its hype or if it will " suddenly weaken" when it approaches land and independent measurements can get readings on it. Like the last storms. But I am glad there will be no stalling of it making it far worse than it might be. And we'll get a break from TWC doing flood stories and have them instead focusing on wind damage.