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Old 10-08-2018, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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Boom

https://twitter.com/seckhardt/status...81318872711170
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
That last red line just north of me would cause problems with surge in my area with a Cat 3.

I still say it will stay well west of me and i get nothing out of it. As i posted on here many days ago in my Boil south of Cuba thread, the water temps in the east gulf are very warm and it could help blow up a storm as long as shear is not bad.
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Old 10-08-2018, 01:49 PM
 
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Seems to be moving at a pretty good speed, covering a lot of miles. Rapid intensification like the last few, but will it stall and dump feet of rain when it hits land?

Models seem to be in decent agreement too. No real outliers.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtovenice View Post
Seems to be moving at a pretty good speed, covering a lot of miles. Rapid intensification like the last few, but will it stall and dump feet of rain when it hits land?

Models seem to be in decent agreement too. No real outliers.
NO. There is no stalling. When you zoom in you can see the true spread of models. From a distance they all look pretty close.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quick zoom at the High Resolution NAM3km model.


Landfall Wednesday 1pm right there..





Regular NAM is well East of 3km and a different path and slower. Landfall Thursday morning


.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:38 PM
 
16,121 posts, read 10,924,533 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Quick zoom at the High Resolution NAM3km model.


Landfall Wednesday 1pm right there..





Regular NAM is well East of 3km and a different path and slower. Landfall Thursday morning


.
The second line more east would maybe give me some good chance of more heavy rain. Just a 100 miles makes all the diff in the world for my area. Anything just west and making land fall say 30 to 50 miles north of me would flood most of my hood if it were a Cat 3.
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Old 10-08-2018, 02:52 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
The second line more east would maybe give me some good chance of more heavy rain. Just a 100 miles makes all the diff in the world for my area. Anything just west and making land fall say 30 to 50 miles north of me would flood most of my hood if it were a Cat 3.
Plan on boating this week?
-kidding

It's fairly large in diameter, so you should get some rain out of it; albeit outer bands.

Fortunately landfall locations are mainly wildlife preserves/parks, and sparsely populated.
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Old 10-08-2018, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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Breezy on the ship there. Not sure exactly where they are but hopefully the captain is following the updates. Lol.

https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/stat...08318991667202
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Old 10-08-2018, 03:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunbiz1 View Post
Plan on boating this week?
-kidding

It's fairly large in diameter, so you should get some rain out of it; albeit outer bands.

Fortunately landfall locations are mainly wildlife preserves/parks, and sparsely populated.
I just got back from a rough trip. I hope i get some rain. Been weeks since i had any.
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Old 10-08-2018, 03:45 PM
 
16,121 posts, read 10,924,533 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Breezy on the ship there. Not sure exactly where they are but hopefully the captain is following the updates. Lol.

https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/stat...08318991667202
The water looks smooth so it can't be that bad.
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