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You in Puerto Rico? I imagine still a lot of people trying to restore/recover after Maria and now a possible hurricane on the way or at least close pass.
Afternoon Euro model is out...it’s bullish on keeping Dorian alive into the Bahamas now. The model tracks you see in Ryan’s tweet below are all the 51 Euro model tracks (ensembles) on one map from this afternoon (there’s the main control one and the rest make subtle changes in further weather patterns to see the window of possibility, more closer together = higher confidence, farther apart lines = lower confidence in track). High uncertainty this far out in time so be careful with individual model runs that show certain size storm hitting(or not) specific places at this point and time. Dorian’s survival out of the Caribbean still isn’t set in stone but is becoming more likely for now. Air recon currently flying around outskirts of Dorian, another NOAA aircraft just left Florida and will be flying through the storm for actual readings this evening, can follow live here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
You in Puerto Rico? I imagine still a lot of people trying to restore/recover after Maria and now a possible hurricane on the way or at least close pass.
No, Florida! People remember what Charlie was like.
Mon 26Aug2019 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT: Estimated winds 60mph(95km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1002mb. Located about 60miles(95km) SE of Barbados, about 165miles(270km) ESE St. Lucia. Tropical Storm force winds go out up to 45miles(75km) from storm center.
Conditions likely going down hill in Barbados now. St. Lucia, Martinique & St. Vincent regions next. Nears or passes in between Puerto Rico (Tropical Storm Watch just issued) and Hispaniola Wednesday then High Pressure turns Dorian back more WNW, may enter Bahamas Friday, may near Florida Saturday (subject to change).
Intensity guidance is very low confidence after Hispaniola. Some weakening expected in vicinity of Hispaniola. Then conditions may be favorable for strengthening by time reaches the Bahamas. For now NHC is putting at strong Tropical Storm or near Cat1 in Bahamas, but this is highly subject to change.
9 out of 10 times these storms go east of me and dry my area out with sinking air on the west side. I pray i can get a hit from this low and get 8" of rain and 60mph gust, but the chance is under 2% i get a drop or any real wind.
I have to confess I haven’t read the whole thread. But would anyone care to make a guess as to how likely it is that Dorian will be in the Bahamas by the end of the week? My sister is planning on leaving for the Bahamas on Thursday for a short (non cruise) vacation. My BIL wants to cancel now (and try to get some money back from the hotel) and she wants to give it at least one more day. Prognosticators?
I have to confess I haven’t read the whole thread. But would anyone care to make a guess as to how likely it is that Dorian will be in the Bahamas by the end of the week? My sister is planning on leaving for the Bahamas on Thursday for a short (non cruise) vacation. My BIL wants to cancel now (and try to get some money back from the hotel) and she wants to give it at least one more day. Prognosticators?
You can bet it will in part of them, but nothing very strong. This will never have a chance to go wild in a days time and blow up into a Cat 3 or more.
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